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THE LINE · WEEK REPLAY

2025, week 8.Assessed before it was played.

We rebuilt the model from weeks 1–7 only — 108 completed games, nothing after — wrote down what it had to say about each week-8 matchup, and then opened the week to see whether those statements survived. Every scoreable week of 2025 is here; pick one from the chart below.

13
Week 8 games
108
Games the model saw
40
Statements checked
54.6%
Held, full season

Read this before the results

No prices are involved. Our line archive is append-only and begins on 29 July 2026, so there are no archived 2025 closes — and inventing them from another source would be exactly the fabricated data this product exists to refuse. Nothing here says whether a bet would have won.

This is not a third backtest. Two pre-registered attempts to beat NFL game markets both found no edge. That budget is only spent by comparing a forecast to a price, and this replay never sees one.

What it does measure: whether a statement like “this defense has allowed the 2nd-most receiving yards to receivers” was still true the following week — the defense staying on the same side of the league median.

Did the descriptions hold?

Week 8 alone
60%
24 of 40 statements

A single week is a few dozen statements — far too few to separate a real effect from one good or bad Sunday. It is shown beside the season figure, never instead of it.

All 14 weeks, 2025
54.6%
341 of 624 statements · 95% CI 50.7–58.5%

The interval clears 50, so the descriptions do carry week to week — but only just. A matchup note is a real tilt, not a reason to be confident.

How often each kind of statement holds

Every confidence percentage on THE LINE links here. It is not a win probability and not a projection — it is how often a statement of that exact class was still true the week after we made it, measured across all 624 scoreable statements of the 2025 season.

By claim

What a chip on a row is actually quoting. The classes are not equal, and until now the site showed one average for all of them.

“generous to WRs”

63/105 held · 95% CI 50.4–68.9

60%

“stingy against WRs”

57/107 held · 95% CI 43.9–62.4includes 50 — no measured edge

53.3%

“generous to TEs”

57/102 held · 95% CI 46.2–65.1includes 50 — no measured edge

55.9%

“stingy against TEs”

62/106 held · 95% CI 49–67.4includes 50 — no measured edge

58.5%

“generous to RBs”

48/100 held · 95% CI 38.5–57.7includes 50 — no measured edge

48%

“stingy against RBs”

54/104 held · 95% CI 42.4–61.3includes 50 — no measured edge

51.9%

By how strong the claim was

The calibration question: does a statement about the most extreme defense in the league hold up better than one about the eighth? Directionally yes — but read the intervals before believing it.

Top 3 in the league

135/234 held · 95% CI 51.3–63.8

57.7%

Ranked 4th–8th

206/390 held · 95% CI 47.9–57.7includes 50 — no measured edge

52.8%

The spread between our best and worst class is real: “generous to WRs” at 60% against “generous to RBs” at 48%. If you only trust one kind of matchup note here, trust the first.

Sharper claims did hold more often — 57.7% against 52.8% — but the two intervals overlap heavily, so we cannot claim that gap is real. It is reported because it is what we measured, not because it flatters the model.

A class whose 95% interval includes 50 is marked in amber and is not distinguishable from a coin flip. We leave those on the site, labelled, rather than quietly dropping the boards that produce them — a reliability table that only ever confirms the product is marketing.

Week by week — tap one to open it
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Bars measured from 50%. Week 8 is open below — tap any bar to read that week in full. The default is week 6, one of the worst of the season, on purpose.

Every week-8 game

Each note is what the model would have said going in, with the sample size it rested on. the description still held that week · it did not · not scoreable (bye or no qualifying plays).

BUFBUF40@CARCAR9
Final
BUF · 52% pass · 0.145 EPA/play
55% pass · -0.007 EPA/play · CAR
  • BUF had allowed the 3rd-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for CAR.

    through week 7 · 6 games · 116 rush yds/gm (league median 89.3)

    Week 8: 104 allowed · league median 105

  • CAR had allowed the 5th-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for BUF.

    through week 7 · 7 games · 67.9 rec yds/gm (league median 51.8)

    Week 8: 53 allowed · league median 47.5

  • CAR had allowed the 8th-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for BUF.

    through week 7 · 7 games · 75.9 rush yds/gm (league median 89.3)

    Week 8: 238 allowed · league median 105

  • BUF had allowed the 8th-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for CAR.

    through week 7 · 6 games · 134.3 rec yds/gm (league median 144.6)

    Week 8: 152 allowed · league median 145.5

  • CAR had allowed the 3rd-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for BUF.

    through week 7 · 7 games · 116.7 rec yds/gm (league median 144.6)

    Week 8: 132 allowed · league median 145.5

  • BUF had allowed the 2nd-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for CAR.

    through week 7 · 6 games · 21.8 rec yds/gm (league median 51.8)

    Week 8: 23 allowed · league median 47.5

CHICHI16@BALBAL30
Final
CHI · 54% pass · 0.026 EPA/play
57% pass · -0.037 EPA/play · BAL
  • CHI had allowed the 5th-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for BAL.

    through week 7 · 6 games · 110.8 rush yds/gm (league median 89.3)

    Week 8: 116 allowed · league median 105

  • BAL had allowed the 6th-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for CHI.

    through week 7 · 6 games · 109.7 rush yds/gm (league median 89.3)

    Week 8: 69 allowed · league median 105

  • BAL had allowed the 7th-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for CHI.

    through week 7 · 6 games · 67 rec yds/gm (league median 51.8)

    Week 8: 38 allowed · league median 47.5

CLECLE13@NENE32
Final
CLE · 62% pass · -0.160 EPA/play
55% pass · 0.119 EPA/play · NE
  • NE had allowed the 2nd-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for CLE.

    through week 7 · 6 games · 72.5 rec yds/gm (league median 51.8)

    Week 8: 99 allowed · league median 47.5

  • CLE had allowed the 6th-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for NE.

    through week 7 · 7 games · 127 rec yds/gm (league median 144.6)

    Week 8: 222 allowed · league median 145.5

  • CLE had allowed the 6th-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for NE.

    through week 7 · 7 games · 70.6 rush yds/gm (league median 89.3)

    Week 8: 124 allowed · league median 105

  • NE had allowed the 2nd-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for CLE.

    through week 7 · 7 games · 59 rush yds/gm (league median 89.3)

    Week 8: 19 allowed · league median 105

DALDAL24@DENDEN44
Final
DAL · 62% pass · 0.158 EPA/play
59% pass · 0.049 EPA/play · DEN
  • DAL had allowed the 4th-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for DEN.

    through week 7 · 7 games · 168.9 rec yds/gm (league median 144.6)

    Week 8: 196 allowed · league median 145.5

  • DAL had allowed the 8th-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for DEN.

    through week 7 · 7 games · 103.4 rush yds/gm (league median 89.3)

    Week 8: 163 allowed · league median 105

  • DEN had allowed the 4th-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for DAL.

    through week 7 · 7 games · 117.4 rec yds/gm (league median 144.6)

    Week 8: 204 allowed · league median 145.5

GBGB35@PITPIT25
Final
GB · 52% pass · 0.167 EPA/play
58% pass · 0.099 EPA/play · PIT
  • PIT had allowed the 1st-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for GB.

    through week 7 · 6 games · 184.7 rec yds/gm (league median 144.6)

    Week 8: 170 allowed · league median 145.5

  • PIT had allowed the 6th-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for GB.

    through week 7 · 6 games · 67.2 rec yds/gm (league median 51.8)

    Week 8: 152 allowed · league median 47.5

  • GB had allowed the 4th-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for PIT.

    through week 7 · 6 games · 66.5 rush yds/gm (league median 89.3)

    Week 8: 93 allowed · league median 105

MIAMIA34@ATLATL10
Final
MIA · 63% pass · -0.038 EPA/play
55% pass · -0.017 EPA/play · ATL
  • MIA had allowed the 1st-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for ATL.

    through week 7 · 7 games · 128.6 rush yds/gm (league median 89.3)

    Week 8: 43 allowed · league median 105

  • ATL had allowed the 2nd-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for MIA.

    through week 7 · 6 games · 116 rec yds/gm (league median 144.6)

    Week 8: 155 allowed · league median 145.5

  • ATL had allowed the 1st-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for MIA.

    through week 7 · 6 games · 16.5 rec yds/gm (league median 51.8)

    Week 8: 6 allowed · league median 47.5

  • MIA had allowed the 1st-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for ATL.

    through week 7 · 7 games · 110.6 rec yds/gm (league median 144.6)

    Week 8: 81 allowed · league median 145.5

MINMIN10@LACLAC37
Final
MIN · 60% pass · -0.066 EPA/play
66% pass · 0.021 EPA/play · LAC
  • MIN had allowed the 7th-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for LAC.

    through week 7 · 6 games · 131.2 rec yds/gm (league median 144.6)

    Week 8: 140 allowed · league median 145.5

  • LAC had allowed the 6th-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for MIN.

    through week 7 · 7 games · 38.7 rec yds/gm (league median 51.8)

    Week 8: 31 allowed · league median 47.5

NYGNYG20@PHIPHI38
Final
NYG · 54% pass · -0.046 EPA/play
55% pass · 0.036 EPA/play · PHI
  • NYG had allowed the 2nd-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for PHI.

    through week 7 · 7 games · 181 rec yds/gm (league median 144.6)

    Week 8: 127 allowed · league median 145.5

  • PHI had allowed the 5th-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for NYG.

    through week 7 · 7 games · 166.6 rec yds/gm (league median 144.6)

    Week 8: 92 allowed · league median 145.5

  • PHI had allowed the 3rd-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for NYG.

    through week 7 · 7 games · 31.4 rec yds/gm (league median 51.8)

    Week 8: 41 allowed · league median 47.5

NYJNYJ39@CINCIN38
Final
NYJ · 56% pass · -0.097 EPA/play
68% pass · -0.091 EPA/play · CIN
  • CIN had allowed the 1st-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for NYJ.

    through week 7 · 7 games · 76.6 rec yds/gm (league median 51.8)

    Week 8: 58 allowed · league median 47.5

  • CIN had allowed the 2nd-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for NYJ.

    through week 7 · 7 games · 122.7 rush yds/gm (league median 89.3)

    Week 8: 198 allowed · league median 105

SFSF15@HOUHOU26
Final
SF · 59% pass · 0.021 EPA/play
59% pass · -0.025 EPA/play · HOU
  • HOU had allowed the 5th-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for SF.

    through week 7 · 6 games · 37.3 rec yds/gm (league median 51.8)

    Week 8: 45 allowed · league median 47.5

TBTB23@NONO3
Final
TB · 60% pass · 0.040 EPA/play
58% pass · -0.086 EPA/play · NO
  • NO had allowed the 7th-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for TB.

    through week 7 · 7 games · 104 rush yds/gm (league median 89.3)

    Week 8: 88 allowed · league median 105

TENTEN14@INDIND38
Final
TEN · 66% pass · -0.230 EPA/play
55% pass · 0.223 EPA/play · IND
  • IND had allowed the 3rd-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for TEN.

    through week 7 · 7 games · 173.1 rec yds/gm (league median 144.6)

    Week 8: 151 allowed · league median 145.5

  • IND had allowed the 3rd-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for TEN.

    through week 7 · 7 games · 71.9 rec yds/gm (league median 51.8)

    Week 8: 76 allowed · league median 47.5

  • TEN had allowed the 4th-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for IND.

    through week 7 · 7 games · 113.6 rush yds/gm (league median 89.3)

    Week 8: 160 allowed · league median 105

  • IND had allowed the 7th-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for TEN.

    through week 7 · 7 games · 70.9 rush yds/gm (league median 89.3)

    Week 8: 108 allowed · league median 105

  • TEN had allowed the 7th-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for IND.

    through week 7 · 7 games · 42 rec yds/gm (league median 51.8)

    Week 8: 53 allowed · league median 47.5

WASWAS7@KCKC28
Final
WAS · 54% pass · 0.043 EPA/play
59% pass · 0.168 EPA/play · KC
  • WAS had allowed the 7th-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for KC.

    through week 7 · 7 games · 161.4 rec yds/gm (league median 144.6)

    Week 8: 175 allowed · league median 145.5

  • KC had allowed the 5th-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for WAS.

    through week 7 · 7 games · 118.9 rec yds/gm (league median 144.6)

    Week 8: 89 allowed · league median 145.5

  • KC had allowed the 4th-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for WAS.

    through week 7 · 7 games · 33.1 rec yds/gm (league median 51.8)

    Week 8: 60 allowed · league median 47.5

This is the whole product, on real football: context you can check, with its sample size attached, and no claim we haven’t measured. When the 2026 season starts, the same notes appear on the matchup pages — beside a line archive that records what the price did.

See this season’s matchups