The Line
Every game this week — open, move and close, appended and never edited
The most-repriced line on the board — 0.5 points travelled
WSH @ SFMonday 8:15 PM
Spread at FanDuel — one of 2 books we hold, so a move is one that book actually made.
Drag across the line to replay it.
1 reprice at FanDuel since it opened — the favourite is 0.5 points bigger than at the open. Half of it was in by Sun 8 PM.
Totals of 52.5 went over 22 of 46 times since 1999.
These are execution calls, not predictions. We have no measured edge on who covers — we looked twice, pre-registered, and didn't find one. What we can tell you is where the best number is, and when a half point sits on the right side of 3.
SEA @ DENThu 8:15 PM ET
0 vs closeside lost
+1 vs close
The line moved through 3, 7 or 10 — the margins games actually land on. Whatever was available on the other side of that number is gone.
HOU @ JAXSun 9:30 AM ET
+0.5 vs closeside won
0 vs closeside lost
NO @ NYGSun 1:00 PM ET
+3 vs closeside won
0 vs closeside lost
+1 vs closeside won
0 vs closeside lost
CHI @ ATLSun 1:00 PM ET
+3 vs closeside won
-2 vs closeside lost
+2 vs closeside lost
-1.5 vs closeside won
NYJ @ NESun 1:00 PM ET
+1 vs closeside lost
0 vs closeside won
+0.5 vs closeside push
0 vs closeside won
CAR @ PHISun 1:00 PM ET
+2 vs closeside won
-1 vs closeside lost
0 vs closeside won
+0.5 vs closeside lost
PIT @ TBSun 1:00 PM ET
-1 vs closeside won
+2 vs closeside lost
+1.5 vs closeside lost
-1 vs closeside won
BAL @ CLESun 1:00 PM ET
-1 vs closeside lost
+2 vs closeside won
TEN @ INDSun 1:00 PM ET
+1 vs closeside won
0 vs closeside lost
0 vs closeside lost
+0.5 vs closeside won
ARI @ LARSun 4:05 PM ET
+1 vs closeside won
0 vs closeside lost
+1 vs closeside won
0 vs closeside lost
LAC @ KCSun 4:25 PM ET
+1 vs closeside lost
0 vs closeside won
BUF @ LVSun 4:25 PM ET
+0.5 vs closeside won
0 vs closeside lost
DAL @ GBSun 8:20 PM ET
0 vs closeside won
+1 vs closeside lost
WSH @ SFMon 8:15 PM ET
Line value and beating the close are what these plays claim. The side record is shown because hiding it would make this not a ledger — but over a few dozen plays it is luck, not evidence, in either direction.
Every play we've published since 2026Biggest move first — and a move means the book we follow actually repriced it.
Opened here and stayed. Nothing to report is a finding too.