Across the 2 books we archive — which is a real limit on this, and we would rather say so than imply a survey of the market. Lines only: two books on the same number with different juice read as equal here.
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
WSH
21.2%
SF
78.8%
Teams the market priced at 75–80% won 434 of 552 games since 1999.Slightly better than the price claimed, by 1.2 points.
4.9%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 104.9%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Jayden Daniels · WASQB Index componentsBrock Purdy · SF
22 · F
Index
55 · B
25.3
Attempts / gm
28.4
7.3%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
2.1%
60.5%
Completion
QB Index · vs SF
Jayden Daniels
WAS · 3 games, 76 attempts
22
index
F
Volumeweight 0.40
29th of 34
25.3 attempts per game · team runs 62 plays at 52% pass · sacked on 7.3% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
20th of 34
6.0 yards per attempt · 60.5% completions · 0.021 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
30th of 32
SF has allowed 6.1 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 181 yards
The life of this number
Following the FanDuel spread · one of 2 books archived · 2 prices on record
Open
Opened -7 on Tue, Oct 6, 13 days before kickoff.
Move
One reprice since, 0.5 points of movement in all. It sits -7.5 — the favourite is 0.5 points bigger than at the open.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Oct 11, 8 PM ET.
100% 5+ days out
Biggest move
0.5 points at once — -7 to -7.5 on Sun, Oct 11, 8 PM ET.
Held 7
It sat on 7 for 5 days, then left it on Sun, Oct 11, 8 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings total · one of 2 books archived · 3 prices on record
Open
Opened 50.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 83 days before kickoff.
Move
2 reprices since, 2 points of movement in all. It sits 52.5 — 2 points higher than the open.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Thu, Oct 15, 2 PM ET.
100% 5–2 days out
Biggest move
1 point at once — 50.5 to 51.5 on Thu, Oct 15, 2 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 7.5 covered 132 of 275 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 209 of 275.
The total
Totals of 52.5 went over 22 of 46 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
The total
Over line.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
Player props · 52
Amik Robertson Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+1100
DraftKings
under
—
Antonio Williams
Receiving Yards
20.5market 50% over
we project31.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Antonio Williams
Receptions
2.5market 41% over
over
+129
DraftKings
under
-166
FanDuel
Austin Ekeler
Rushing Yards
19.5market 49% over
over
-108
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Brock Purdy
Carries
4.5market 45% over
we project5.0/gm± 0.7 typical error
over
+108
DraftKings
under
-139
DraftKings
Brock Purdy
Completions
21.5market 47% over
over
+102
DraftKings
under
-132
DraftKings
Brock Purdy
Interceptions
0.5market 45% over
over
+109
DraftKings
under
-141
DraftKings
Brock Purdy
Pass Attempts
30.5market 52% over
we project28.4/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-122
DraftKings
under
-106
DraftKings
Brock Purdy
Passing TDs
2.5market 41% over
over
+130
DraftKings
under
-167
DraftKings
Brock Purdy
Passing Yards
246.5market 50% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Brock Purdy
Rushing Yards
17.5market 50% over
we project25.6/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Chigoziem Okonkwo
Receiving Yards
25.5market 49% over
over
-109
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Chigoziem Okonkwo
Receptions
2.5market 57% over
over
-156
DraftKings
under
+122
DraftKings
Christian McCaffrey
Carries
14.5market 51% over
we project12.2/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-118
DraftKings
under
-110
DraftKings
Christian McCaffrey
Receiving Yards
38.5market 50% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Christian McCaffrey
Receptions
4.5market 52% over1.7pp between books — shop it
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-106
DraftKings
Christian McCaffrey
Rushing Yards
59.5market 51% over
we project57.2/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-110
DraftKings
Deommodore Lenoir Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+800
DraftKings
under
—
Drew Stevens
Kicking Points
6.5market 47% over
over
+102
DraftKings
under
-132
DraftKings
Eddy Pineiro
Kicking Points
8.5market 47% over
over
+100
DraftKings
under
-128
DraftKings
Fred Warner Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+1200
DraftKings
under
—
George Kittle
Receiving Yards
65.5market 50% over
we project53.6/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
George Kittle
Receptions
5.5market 49% over2.0pp between books — shop it
over
+102
FanDuel
under
-120
DraftKings
Jack Jones Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+1100
DraftKings
under
—
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
Carries
11.5market 46% over
we project13.4/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
+106
DraftKings
under
-135
DraftKings
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
Rushing Yards
39.5market 50% over
we project47.8/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Jartavius Martin Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+950
DraftKings
under
—
Jayden Daniels
Carries
6.5market 56% over
we project7.0/gm± 0.7 typical error
over
-143
DraftKings
under
+112
DraftKings
Jayden Daniels
Completions
18.5market 54% over
over
-133
DraftKings
under
+104
DraftKings
Jayden Daniels
Interceptions
0.5market 40% over
over
+137
DraftKings
under
-179
DraftKings
Jayden Daniels
Pass Attempts
30.5market 50% over
we project25.3/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-114
DraftKings
under
-114
DraftKings
Jayden Daniels
Passing TDs
1.5market 44% over
over
+112
DraftKings
under
-138
FanDuel
Jayden Daniels
Passing Yards
207.5market 50% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Jayden Daniels
Rushing Yards
37.5market 49% over
we project67.7/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-109
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Ji'Ayir Brown Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+800
DraftKings
under
—
Kaelon Black
Rushing Yards
23.5market 51% over
we project27.2/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-109
DraftKings
Malik Mustapha Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+1200
DraftKings
under
—
Mike Evans
Receiving Yards
72.5market 50% over
we project65.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Mike Evans
Receptions
5.5market 48% over
over
-102
FanDuel
under
-123
DraftKings
Nick Cross Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+850
DraftKings
under
—
Rachaad White
Carries
13.5market 47% over
we project7.3/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
+100
DraftKings
under
-128
DraftKings
Rachaad White
Receiving Yards
12.5market 51% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-110
DraftKings
Rachaad White
Receptions
1.5market 59% over
over
-162
FanDuel
under
+129
DraftKings
Rachaad White
Rushing Yards
46.5market 51% over
we project29.5/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-110
DraftKings
Rasul Douglas Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+700
DraftKings
under
—
Renardo Green Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+900
DraftKings
under
—
Sonny Styles Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+2000
DraftKings
under
—
Stefon Diggs
Receiving Yards
41.5market 50% over
we project42.5/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Stefon Diggs
Receptions
4.5market 41% over2.2pp between books — shop it
over
+131
DraftKings
under
-160
FanDuel
Terry McLaurin
Receiving Yards
45.5market 50% over
we project50.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Terry McLaurin
Receptions
3.5market 53% over
over
-127
DraftKings
under
-101
DraftKings
Upton Stout Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+1000
DraftKings
under
—
Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
69.0%
6.0
Yards / att
8.4
224.3
Air yards / gm
220.6
0.021
EPA / dropback
0.397
+2.7
CPOE
completion % over expected
+6.0
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 22.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
150.5 yards in 2 of 3175.5 yards in 1 of 3200.5 yards in 0 of 3
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs WAS
Brock Purdy
SF · 5 games, 142 attempts
55
index
B
Volumeweight 0.40
25th of 34
28.4 attempts per game · team runs 56 plays at 51% pass · sacked on 2.1% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
4th of 34
8.4 yards per attempt · 69.0% completions · 0.397 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
17th of 32
WAS has allowed 7.0 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 234 yards28 attempts × 8.4 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 30.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
200.5 yards in 4 of 5225.5 yards in 2 of 5250.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Stefon Diggs20.1% target share · 13.3 PPR last 4
Terry McLaurin17.5% target share · 10.6 PPR last 4
Antonio Williams14.3% target share · 5 PPR last 4
Mike Evans25.4% target share · 14.9 PPR last 4
Deebo Samuel Sr.14.5% target share · 10.6 PPR last 4
Demarcus Robinson4.3% target share · 9.7 PPR last 2
Jacory Croskey-Merritt47.9% of team carries · 8.1 PPR last 4
Rachaad White20.7% of team carries · 8.3 PPR last 4
Austin Ekeler5.0% of team carries · 3.7 PPR last 2
Christian McCaffrey47.7% of team carries · 19.4 PPR last 4
Chig Okonkwo8.4% target share · 5.4 PPR last 3
John Bates3.9% target share · 2.1 PPR last 3
George Kittle20.3% target share · 17.2 PPR last 4