The Line
Everything settled, graded against the close — and what we published, which is nothing
The Line · History
Every NFL bet you logged, settled and graded against the closing line — and what THE LINE itself has published, which is nothing, on purpose.
There are no model plays to keep a record of, because we publish none. Two pre-registered backtests looked for an edge on NFL game markets and found none, twice. The props model failed its first calibration gate. Both results are written down with the figures that killed them.
What we do publish is a measured statement about how long a matchup description survives — 341 of 624 held into the next week, 54.6%, 95% CI 50.7–58.5% — and that is scored week by week rather than asserted.
Sign in to see your own record — every bet you logged, graded against the price the market closed at.
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