THE LINE · WEEK REPLAY

2025, week 13.Assessed before it was played.

We rebuilt the model from weeks 1–12 only — 178 completed games, nothing after — wrote down what it had to say about each week-13 matchup, and then opened the week to see whether those statements survived. Every scoreable week of 2025 is here; pick one from the chart below.

Week 13 games

178

Games the model saw

Statements checked

54.6%

Held, full season

Read this before the results

No prices are involved. Our line archive is append-only and begins on 29 July 2026, so there are no archived 2025 closes — and inventing them from another source would be exactly the fabricated data this product exists to refuse. Nothing here says whether a bet would have won.

This is not a third backtest. Two pre-registered attempts to beat NFL game markets both found no edge. That budget is only spent by comparing a forecast to a price, and this replay never sees one.

What it does measure: whether a statement like “this defense has allowed the 2nd-most receiving yards to receivers” was still true the following week — the defense staying on the same side of the league median.

Did the descriptions hold?

Week 13 alone

47.9%

23 of 48 statements

A single week is a few dozen statements — far too few to separate a real effect from one good or bad Sunday. It is shown beside the season figure, never instead of it.

All 14 weeks, 2025

54.6%

341 of 624 statements · 95% CI 50.7–58.5%

The interval clears 50, so the descriptions do carry week to week — but only just. A matchup note is a real tilt, not a reason to be confident.

How often each kind of statement holds

Every confidence percentage on THE LINE links here. It is not a win probability and not a projection — it is how often a statement of that exact class was still true the week after we made it, measured across all 624 scoreable statements of the 2025 season.

By claim

What a chip on a row is actually quoting. The classes are not equal, and until now the site showed one average for all of them.

“generous to WRs”

63/105 held · 95% CI 50.4–68.9

60%

“stingy against WRs”

57/107 held · 95% CI 43.9–62.4includes 50 — no measured edge

53.3%

“generous to TEs”

57/102 held · 95% CI 46.2–65.1includes 50 — no measured edge

55.9%

“stingy against TEs”

62/106 held · 95% CI 49–67.4includes 50 — no measured edge

58.5%

“generous to RBs”

48/100 held · 95% CI 38.5–57.7includes 50 — no measured edge

48%

“stingy against RBs”

54/104 held · 95% CI 42.4–61.3includes 50 — no measured edge

51.9%

By how strong the claim was

The calibration question: does a statement about the most extreme defense in the league hold up better than one about the eighth? Directionally yes — but read the intervals before believing it.

Top 3 in the league

135/234 held · 95% CI 51.3–63.8

57.7%

Ranked 4th–8th

206/390 held · 95% CI 47.9–57.7includes 50 — no measured edge

52.8%

The spread between our best and worst class is real: “generous to WRs” at 60% against “generous to RBs” at 48%. If you only trust one kind of matchup note here, trust the first.

Sharper claims did hold more often — 57.7% against 52.8% — but the two intervals overlap heavily, so we cannot claim that gap is real. It is reported because it is what we measured, not because it flatters the model.

A class whose 95% interval includes 50 is marked in amber and is not distinguishable from a coin flip. We leave those on the site, labelled, rather than quietly dropping the boards that produce them — a reliability table that only ever confirms the product is marketing.

Week by week — tap one to open it

Bars measured from 50%. Week 13 is open below — tap any bar to read that week in full. The default is week 6, one of the worst of the season, on purpose.

Every week-13 game

Each note is what the model would have said going in, with the sample size it rested on. the description still held that week · it did not · not scoreable (bye or no qualifying plays).

ARI17@

TB20

Final

ARI · 64% pass · -0.020 EPA/play

58% pass · -0.019 EPA/play · TB

TB had allowed the 6th-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for ARI.
through week 12 · 11 games · 164 rec yds/gm (league median 141.2)
Week 13: 119 allowed · league median 126
TB had allowed the 7th-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for ARI.
through week 12 · 11 games · 43.4 rec yds/gm (league median 52)
Week 13: 99 allowed · league median 50.5
TB had allowed the 7th-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for ARI.
through week 12 · 11 games · 77.3 rush yds/gm (league median 90.7)
Week 13: 79 allowed · league median 96.5

ATL24@

NYJ27

Final

ATL · 56% pass · -0.033 EPA/play

53% pass · -0.069 EPA/play · NYJ

ATL had allowed the 4th-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for NYJ.
through week 12 · 11 games · 39.3 rec yds/gm (league median 52)
Week 13: 33 allowed · league median 50.5

BUF26@

PIT7

Final

BUF · 54% pass · 0.128 EPA/play

59% pass · 0.014 EPA/play · PIT

PIT had allowed the 1st-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for BUF.
through week 12 · 11 games · 184.5 rec yds/gm (league median 141.2)
Week 13: 32 allowed · league median 126
BUF had allowed the 3rd-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for PIT.
through week 12 · 11 games · 118.4 rush yds/gm (league median 90.7)
Week 13: 58 allowed · league median 96.5
PIT had allowed the 8th-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for BUF.
through week 12 · 11 games · 66.1 rec yds/gm (league median 52)
Week 13: 38 allowed · league median 50.5
BUF had allowed the 1st-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for PIT.
through week 12 · 11 games · 25.3 rec yds/gm (league median 52)
Week 13: 51 allowed · league median 50.5

CHI24@

PHI15

Final

CHI · 55% pass · 0.064 EPA/play

53% pass · 0.035 EPA/play · PHI

CHI had allowed the 7th-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for PHI.
through week 12 · 11 games · 108.2 rush yds/gm (league median 90.7)
Week 13: 56 allowed · league median 96.5
PHI had allowed the 2nd-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for CHI.
through week 12 · 11 games · 32.4 rec yds/gm (league median 52)
Week 13: 64 allowed · league median 50.5

CIN32@

BAL14

Final

CIN · 68% pass · -0.051 EPA/play

52% pass · 0.006 EPA/play · BAL

CIN had allowed the 1st-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for BAL.
through week 12 · 11 games · 87.5 rec yds/gm (league median 52)
Week 13: 159 allowed · league median 50.5
CIN had allowed the 1st-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for BAL.
through week 12 · 11 games · 131.1 rush yds/gm (league median 90.7)
Week 13: 96 allowed · league median 96.5

DEN27@

WAS26

Final

DEN · 59% pass · 0.037 EPA/play

52% pass · 0.032 EPA/play · WAS

WAS had allowed the 2nd-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for DEN.
through week 12 · 11 games · 170.3 rec yds/gm (league median 141.2)
Week 13: 133 allowed · league median 126
WAS had allowed the 5th-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for DEN.
through week 12 · 11 games · 113.2 rush yds/gm (league median 90.7)
Week 13: 62 allowed · league median 96.5
DEN had allowed the 6th-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for WAS.
through week 12 · 11 games · 76.3 rush yds/gm (league median 90.7)
Week 13: 91 allowed · league median 96.5

GB31@

DET24

Final

GB · 53% pass · 0.138 EPA/play

56% pass · 0.101 EPA/play · DET

GB had allowed the 6th-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for DET.
through week 12 · 11 games · 122.9 rec yds/gm (league median 141.2)
Week 13: 215 allowed · league median 126

HOU20@

IND16

Final

HOU · 60% pass · -0.007 EPA/play

57% pass · 0.172 EPA/play · IND

IND had allowed the 2nd-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for HOU.
through week 12 · 11 games · 72.2 rec yds/gm (league median 52)
Week 13: 71 allowed · league median 50.5
IND had allowed the 7th-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for HOU.
through week 12 · 11 games · 160.7 rec yds/gm (league median 141.2)
Week 13: 202 allowed · league median 126
HOU had allowed the 8th-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for IND.
through week 12 · 11 games · 124.9 rec yds/gm (league median 141.2)
Week 13: 135 allowed · league median 126
HOU had allowed the 6th-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for IND.
through week 12 · 11 games · 40.3 rec yds/gm (league median 52)
Week 13: 30 allowed · league median 50.5
HOU had allowed the 5th-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for IND.
through week 12 · 11 games · 73.5 rush yds/gm (league median 90.7)
Week 13: 85 allowed · league median 96.5

JAX25@

TEN3

Final

JAX · 56% pass · -0.013 EPA/play

66% pass · -0.177 EPA/play · TEN

TEN had allowed the 3rd-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for JAX.
through week 12 · 11 games · 169.5 rec yds/gm (league median 141.2)
Week 13: 155 allowed · league median 126
JAX had allowed the 4th-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for TEN.
through week 12 · 11 games · 70.8 rec yds/gm (league median 52)
Week 13: 52 allowed · league median 50.5
TEN had allowed the 6th-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for JAX.
through week 12 · 11 games · 108.7 rush yds/gm (league median 90.7)
Week 13: 45 allowed · league median 96.5
JAX had allowed the 2nd-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for TEN.
through week 12 · 11 games · 64.1 rush yds/gm (league median 90.7)
Week 13: 59 allowed · league median 96.5

KC28@

DAL31

Final

KC · 60% pass · 0.135 EPA/play

60% pass · 0.105 EPA/play · DAL

DAL had allowed the 4th-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for KC.
through week 12 · 11 games · 167.5 rec yds/gm (league median 141.2)
Week 13: 173 allowed · league median 126
KC had allowed the 7th-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for DAL.
through week 12 · 11 games · 123.5 rec yds/gm (league median 141.2)
Week 13: 262 allowed · league median 126
KC had allowed the 4th-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for DAL.
through week 12 · 11 games · 73.3 rush yds/gm (league median 90.7)
Week 13: 106 allowed · league median 96.5

LA28@

CAR31

Final

LA · 59% pass · 0.111 EPA/play

56% pass · -0.053 EPA/play · CAR

CAR had allowed the 7th-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for LA.
through week 12 · 12 games · 66.6 rec yds/gm (league median 52)
Week 13: 31 allowed · league median 50.5
LA had allowed the 8th-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for CAR.
through week 12 · 11 games · 77.7 rush yds/gm (league median 90.7)
Week 13: 141 allowed · league median 96.5
CAR had allowed the 5th-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for LA.
through week 12 · 12 games · 122.3 rec yds/gm (league median 141.2)
Week 13: 212 allowed · league median 126

LV14@

LAC31

Final

LV · 62% pass · -0.194 EPA/play

61% pass · 0.001 EPA/play · LAC

LV had allowed the 5th-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for LAC.
through week 12 · 11 games · 39.5 rec yds/gm (league median 52)
Week 13: 27 allowed · league median 50.5
LAC had allowed the 3rd-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for LV.
through week 12 · 11 games · 121 rec yds/gm (league median 141.2)
Week 13: 64 allowed · league median 126
LAC had allowed the 3rd-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for LV.
through week 12 · 11 games · 37.7 rec yds/gm (league median 52)
Week 13: 71 allowed · league median 50.5

MIN0@

SEA26

Final

MIN · 62% pass · -0.136 EPA/play

50% pass · 0.055 EPA/play · SEA

SEA had allowed the 3rd-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for MIN.
through week 12 · 11 games · 71.3 rec yds/gm (league median 52)
Week 13: 59 allowed · league median 50.5
MIN had allowed the 8th-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for SEA.
through week 12 · 11 games · 106.5 rush yds/gm (league median 90.7)
Week 13: 114 allowed · league median 96.5
SEA had allowed the 4th-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for MIN.
through week 12 · 11 games · 121.8 rec yds/gm (league median 141.2)
Week 13: 40 allowed · league median 126
SEA had allowed the 3rd-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for MIN.
through week 12 · 11 games · 66.3 rush yds/gm (league median 90.7)
Week 13: 67 allowed · league median 96.5

NO17@

MIA21

Final

NO · 60% pass · -0.137 EPA/play

58% pass · -0.004 EPA/play · MIA

MIA had allowed the 4th-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for NO.
through week 12 · 11 games · 113.5 rush yds/gm (league median 90.7)
Week 13: 62 allowed · league median 96.5
MIA had allowed the 6th-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for NO.
through week 12 · 11 games · 68.1 rec yds/gm (league median 52)
Week 13: 52 allowed · league median 50.5
MIA had allowed the 1st-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for NO.
through week 12 · 11 games · 111.8 rec yds/gm (league median 141.2)
Week 13: 160 allowed · league median 126

NYG15@

NE33

Final

NYG · 54% pass · 0.016 EPA/play

55% pass · 0.104 EPA/play · NE

NYG had allowed the 2nd-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for NE.
through week 12 · 12 games · 126.8 rush yds/gm (league median 90.7)
Week 13: 107 allowed · league median 96.5
NE had allowed the 5th-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for NYG.
through week 12 · 11 games · 69.1 rec yds/gm (league median 52)
Week 13: 29 allowed · league median 50.5
NYG had allowed the 5th-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for NE.
through week 12 · 12 games · 166.8 rec yds/gm (league median 141.2)
Week 13: 150 allowed · league median 126
NYG had allowed the 8th-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for NE.
through week 12 · 12 games · 43.5 rec yds/gm (league median 52)
Week 13: 73 allowed · league median 50.5
NE had allowed the 1st-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for NYG.
through week 12 · 12 games · 63 rush yds/gm (league median 90.7)
Week 13: 104 allowed · league median 96.5

SF26@

CLE8

Final

SF · 58% pass · 0.061 EPA/play

60% pass · -0.191 EPA/play · CLE

SF had allowed the 8th-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for CLE.
through week 12 · 12 games · 159.8 rec yds/gm (league median 141.2)
Week 13: 67 allowed · league median 126
CLE had allowed the 2nd-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for SF.
through week 12 · 11 games · 119.2 rec yds/gm (league median 141.2)
Week 13: 53 allowed · league median 126

This is the whole product, on real football: context you can check, with its sample size attached, and no claim we haven’t measured. When the 2026 season starts, the same notes appear on the matchup pages — beside a line archive that records what the price did.

See this season’s matchups

Read this before the results

This is not a third backtest. Two pre-registered attempts to beat NFL game markets both found no edge. That budget is only spent by comparing a forecast to a price, and this replay never sees one.

Did the descriptions hold?

Week 13 alone

47.9%

23 of 48 statements

A single week is a few dozen statements — far too few to separate a real effect from one good or bad Sunday. It is shown beside the season figure, never instead of it.

All 14 weeks, 2025

54.6%

341 of 624 statements · 95% CI 50.7–58.5%

The interval clears 50, so the descriptions do carry week to week — but only just. A matchup note is a real tilt, not a reason to be confident.

How often each kind of statement holds

By claim

What a chip on a row is actually quoting. The classes are not equal, and until now the site showed one average for all of them.

“generous to WRs”

63/105 held · 95% CI 50.4–68.9

60%

“stingy against WRs”

57/107 held · 95% CI 43.9–62.4includes 50 — no measured edge

53.3%

“generous to TEs”

57/102 held · 95% CI 46.2–65.1includes 50 — no measured edge

55.9%

“stingy against TEs”

62/106 held · 95% CI 49–67.4includes 50 — no measured edge

58.5%

“generous to RBs”

48/100 held · 95% CI 38.5–57.7includes 50 — no measured edge

48%

“stingy against RBs”

54/104 held · 95% CI 42.4–61.3includes 50 — no measured edge

51.9%

By how strong the claim was

The calibration question: does a statement about the most extreme defense in the league hold up better than one about the eighth? Directionally yes — but read the intervals before believing it.

Top 3 in the league

135/234 held · 95% CI 51.3–63.8

57.7%

Ranked 4th–8th

206/390 held · 95% CI 47.9–57.7includes 50 — no measured edge

52.8%

The spread between our best and worst class is real: “generous to WRs” at 60% against “generous to RBs” at 48%. If you only trust one kind of matchup note here, trust the first.

Week by week — tap one to open it

Bars measured from 50%. Week 13 is open below — tap any bar to read that week in full. The default is week 6, one of the worst of the season, on purpose.

Every week-13 game

Each note is what the model would have said going in, with the sample size it rested on. the description still held that week · it did not · not scoreable (bye or no qualifying plays).

ARI17@

TB20

Final

ARI · 64% pass · -0.020 EPA/play

58% pass · -0.019 EPA/play · TB

TB had allowed the 6th-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for ARI.
through week 12 · 11 games · 164 rec yds/gm (league median 141.2)
Week 13: 119 allowed · league median 126
TB had allowed the 7th-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for ARI.
through week 12 · 11 games · 43.4 rec yds/gm (league median 52)
Week 13: 99 allowed · league median 50.5
TB had allowed the 7th-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for ARI.
through week 12 · 11 games · 77.3 rush yds/gm (league median 90.7)
Week 13: 79 allowed · league median 96.5

ATL24@

NYJ27

Final

ATL · 56% pass · -0.033 EPA/play

53% pass · -0.069 EPA/play · NYJ

ATL had allowed the 4th-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for NYJ.
through week 12 · 11 games · 39.3 rec yds/gm (league median 52)
Week 13: 33 allowed · league median 50.5

BUF26@

PIT7

Final

BUF · 54% pass · 0.128 EPA/play

59% pass · 0.014 EPA/play · PIT

PIT had allowed the 1st-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for BUF.
through week 12 · 11 games · 184.5 rec yds/gm (league median 141.2)
Week 13: 32 allowed · league median 126
BUF had allowed the 3rd-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for PIT.
through week 12 · 11 games · 118.4 rush yds/gm (league median 90.7)
Week 13: 58 allowed · league median 96.5
PIT had allowed the 8th-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for BUF.
through week 12 · 11 games · 66.1 rec yds/gm (league median 52)
Week 13: 38 allowed · league median 50.5
BUF had allowed the 1st-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for PIT.
through week 12 · 11 games · 25.3 rec yds/gm (league median 52)
Week 13: 51 allowed · league median 50.5

CHI24@

PHI15

Final

CHI · 55% pass · 0.064 EPA/play

53% pass · 0.035 EPA/play · PHI

CHI had allowed the 7th-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for PHI.
through week 12 · 11 games · 108.2 rush yds/gm (league median 90.7)
Week 13: 56 allowed · league median 96.5
PHI had allowed the 2nd-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for CHI.
through week 12 · 11 games · 32.4 rec yds/gm (league median 52)
Week 13: 64 allowed · league median 50.5

CIN32@

BAL14

Final

CIN · 68% pass · -0.051 EPA/play

52% pass · 0.006 EPA/play · BAL

CIN had allowed the 1st-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for BAL.
through week 12 · 11 games · 87.5 rec yds/gm (league median 52)
Week 13: 159 allowed · league median 50.5
CIN had allowed the 1st-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for BAL.
through week 12 · 11 games · 131.1 rush yds/gm (league median 90.7)
Week 13: 96 allowed · league median 96.5

DEN27@

WAS26

Final

DEN · 59% pass · 0.037 EPA/play

52% pass · 0.032 EPA/play · WAS

WAS had allowed the 2nd-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for DEN.
through week 12 · 11 games · 170.3 rec yds/gm (league median 141.2)
Week 13: 133 allowed · league median 126
WAS had allowed the 5th-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for DEN.
through week 12 · 11 games · 113.2 rush yds/gm (league median 90.7)
Week 13: 62 allowed · league median 96.5
DEN had allowed the 6th-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for WAS.
through week 12 · 11 games · 76.3 rush yds/gm (league median 90.7)
Week 13: 91 allowed · league median 96.5

GB31@

DET24

Final

GB · 53% pass · 0.138 EPA/play

56% pass · 0.101 EPA/play · DET

GB had allowed the 6th-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for DET.
through week 12 · 11 games · 122.9 rec yds/gm (league median 141.2)
Week 13: 215 allowed · league median 126

HOU20@

IND16

Final

HOU · 60% pass · -0.007 EPA/play

57% pass · 0.172 EPA/play · IND

IND had allowed the 2nd-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for HOU.
through week 12 · 11 games · 72.2 rec yds/gm (league median 52)
Week 13: 71 allowed · league median 50.5
IND had allowed the 7th-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for HOU.
through week 12 · 11 games · 160.7 rec yds/gm (league median 141.2)
Week 13: 202 allowed · league median 126
HOU had allowed the 8th-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for IND.
through week 12 · 11 games · 124.9 rec yds/gm (league median 141.2)
Week 13: 135 allowed · league median 126
HOU had allowed the 6th-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for IND.
through week 12 · 11 games · 40.3 rec yds/gm (league median 52)
Week 13: 30 allowed · league median 50.5
HOU had allowed the 5th-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for IND.
through week 12 · 11 games · 73.5 rush yds/gm (league median 90.7)
Week 13: 85 allowed · league median 96.5

JAX25@

TEN3

Final

JAX · 56% pass · -0.013 EPA/play

66% pass · -0.177 EPA/play · TEN

TEN had allowed the 3rd-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for JAX.
through week 12 · 11 games · 169.5 rec yds/gm (league median 141.2)
Week 13: 155 allowed · league median 126
JAX had allowed the 4th-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for TEN.
through week 12 · 11 games · 70.8 rec yds/gm (league median 52)
Week 13: 52 allowed · league median 50.5
TEN had allowed the 6th-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for JAX.
through week 12 · 11 games · 108.7 rush yds/gm (league median 90.7)
Week 13: 45 allowed · league median 96.5
JAX had allowed the 2nd-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for TEN.
through week 12 · 11 games · 64.1 rush yds/gm (league median 90.7)
Week 13: 59 allowed · league median 96.5

KC28@

DAL31

Final

KC · 60% pass · 0.135 EPA/play

60% pass · 0.105 EPA/play · DAL

DAL had allowed the 4th-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for KC.
through week 12 · 11 games · 167.5 rec yds/gm (league median 141.2)
Week 13: 173 allowed · league median 126
KC had allowed the 7th-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for DAL.
through week 12 · 11 games · 123.5 rec yds/gm (league median 141.2)
Week 13: 262 allowed · league median 126
KC had allowed the 4th-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for DAL.
through week 12 · 11 games · 73.3 rush yds/gm (league median 90.7)
Week 13: 106 allowed · league median 96.5

LA28@

CAR31

Final

LA · 59% pass · 0.111 EPA/play

56% pass · -0.053 EPA/play · CAR

CAR had allowed the 7th-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for LA.
through week 12 · 12 games · 66.6 rec yds/gm (league median 52)
Week 13: 31 allowed · league median 50.5
LA had allowed the 8th-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for CAR.
through week 12 · 11 games · 77.7 rush yds/gm (league median 90.7)
Week 13: 141 allowed · league median 96.5
CAR had allowed the 5th-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for LA.
through week 12 · 12 games · 122.3 rec yds/gm (league median 141.2)
Week 13: 212 allowed · league median 126

LV14@

LAC31

Final

LV · 62% pass · -0.194 EPA/play

61% pass · 0.001 EPA/play · LAC

LV had allowed the 5th-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for LAC.
through week 12 · 11 games · 39.5 rec yds/gm (league median 52)
Week 13: 27 allowed · league median 50.5
LAC had allowed the 3rd-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for LV.
through week 12 · 11 games · 121 rec yds/gm (league median 141.2)
Week 13: 64 allowed · league median 126
LAC had allowed the 3rd-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for LV.
through week 12 · 11 games · 37.7 rec yds/gm (league median 52)
Week 13: 71 allowed · league median 50.5

MIN0@

SEA26

Final

MIN · 62% pass · -0.136 EPA/play

50% pass · 0.055 EPA/play · SEA

SEA had allowed the 3rd-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for MIN.
through week 12 · 11 games · 71.3 rec yds/gm (league median 52)
Week 13: 59 allowed · league median 50.5
MIN had allowed the 8th-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for SEA.
through week 12 · 11 games · 106.5 rush yds/gm (league median 90.7)
Week 13: 114 allowed · league median 96.5
SEA had allowed the 4th-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for MIN.
through week 12 · 11 games · 121.8 rec yds/gm (league median 141.2)
Week 13: 40 allowed · league median 126
SEA had allowed the 3rd-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for MIN.
through week 12 · 11 games · 66.3 rush yds/gm (league median 90.7)
Week 13: 67 allowed · league median 96.5

NO17@

MIA21

Final

NO · 60% pass · -0.137 EPA/play

58% pass · -0.004 EPA/play · MIA

MIA had allowed the 4th-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for NO.
through week 12 · 11 games · 113.5 rush yds/gm (league median 90.7)
Week 13: 62 allowed · league median 96.5
MIA had allowed the 6th-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for NO.
through week 12 · 11 games · 68.1 rec yds/gm (league median 52)
Week 13: 52 allowed · league median 50.5
MIA had allowed the 1st-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for NO.
through week 12 · 11 games · 111.8 rec yds/gm (league median 141.2)
Week 13: 160 allowed · league median 126

NYG15@

NE33

Final

NYG · 54% pass · 0.016 EPA/play

55% pass · 0.104 EPA/play · NE

NYG had allowed the 2nd-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for NE.
through week 12 · 12 games · 126.8 rush yds/gm (league median 90.7)
Week 13: 107 allowed · league median 96.5
NE had allowed the 5th-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for NYG.
through week 12 · 11 games · 69.1 rec yds/gm (league median 52)
Week 13: 29 allowed · league median 50.5
NYG had allowed the 5th-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for NE.
through week 12 · 12 games · 166.8 rec yds/gm (league median 141.2)
Week 13: 150 allowed · league median 126
NYG had allowed the 8th-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for NE.
through week 12 · 12 games · 43.5 rec yds/gm (league median 52)
Week 13: 73 allowed · league median 50.5
NE had allowed the 1st-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for NYG.
through week 12 · 12 games · 63 rush yds/gm (league median 90.7)
Week 13: 104 allowed · league median 96.5

SF26@

CLE8

Final

SF · 58% pass · 0.061 EPA/play

60% pass · -0.191 EPA/play · CLE

SF had allowed the 8th-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for CLE.
through week 12 · 12 games · 159.8 rec yds/gm (league median 141.2)
Week 13: 67 allowed · league median 126
CLE had allowed the 2nd-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for SF.
through week 12 · 11 games · 119.2 rec yds/gm (league median 141.2)
Week 13: 53 allowed · league median 126