THE LINE · WEEK REPLAY

2025, week 12.Assessed before it was played.

We rebuilt the model from weeks 1–11 only — 164 completed games, nothing after — wrote down what it had to say about each week-12 matchup, and then opened the week to see whether those statements survived. Every scoreable week of 2025 is here; pick one from the chart below.

Week 12 games

164

Games the model saw

Statements checked

54.6%

Held, full season

Read this before the results

No prices are involved. Our line archive is append-only and begins on 29 July 2026, so there are no archived 2025 closes — and inventing them from another source would be exactly the fabricated data this product exists to refuse. Nothing here says whether a bet would have won.

This is not a third backtest. Two pre-registered attempts to beat NFL game markets both found no edge. That budget is only spent by comparing a forecast to a price, and this replay never sees one.

What it does measure: whether a statement like “this defense has allowed the 2nd-most receiving yards to receivers” was still true the following week — the defense staying on the same side of the league median.

Did the descriptions hold?

Week 12 alone

61.5%

24 of 39 statements

A single week is a few dozen statements — far too few to separate a real effect from one good or bad Sunday. It is shown beside the season figure, never instead of it.

All 14 weeks, 2025

54.6%

341 of 624 statements · 95% CI 50.7–58.5%

The interval clears 50, so the descriptions do carry week to week — but only just. A matchup note is a real tilt, not a reason to be confident.

How often each kind of statement holds

Every confidence percentage on THE LINE links here. It is not a win probability and not a projection — it is how often a statement of that exact class was still true the week after we made it, measured across all 624 scoreable statements of the 2025 season.

By claim

What a chip on a row is actually quoting. The classes are not equal, and until now the site showed one average for all of them.

“generous to WRs”

63/105 held · 95% CI 50.4–68.9

60%

“stingy against WRs”

57/107 held · 95% CI 43.9–62.4includes 50 — no measured edge

53.3%

“generous to TEs”

57/102 held · 95% CI 46.2–65.1includes 50 — no measured edge

55.9%

“stingy against TEs”

62/106 held · 95% CI 49–67.4includes 50 — no measured edge

58.5%

“generous to RBs”

48/100 held · 95% CI 38.5–57.7includes 50 — no measured edge

48%

“stingy against RBs”

54/104 held · 95% CI 42.4–61.3includes 50 — no measured edge

51.9%

By how strong the claim was

The calibration question: does a statement about the most extreme defense in the league hold up better than one about the eighth? Directionally yes — but read the intervals before believing it.

Top 3 in the league

135/234 held · 95% CI 51.3–63.8

57.7%

Ranked 4th–8th

206/390 held · 95% CI 47.9–57.7includes 50 — no measured edge

52.8%

The spread between our best and worst class is real: “generous to WRs” at 60% against “generous to RBs” at 48%. If you only trust one kind of matchup note here, trust the first.

Sharper claims did hold more often — 57.7% against 52.8% — but the two intervals overlap heavily, so we cannot claim that gap is real. It is reported because it is what we measured, not because it flatters the model.

A class whose 95% interval includes 50 is marked in amber and is not distinguishable from a coin flip. We leave those on the site, labelled, rather than quietly dropping the boards that produce them — a reliability table that only ever confirms the product is marketing.

Week by week — tap one to open it

Bars measured from 50%. Week 12 is open below — tap any bar to read that week in full. The default is week 6, one of the worst of the season, on purpose.

Every week-12 game

Each note is what the model would have said going in, with the sample size it rested on. the description still held that week · it did not · not scoreable (bye or no qualifying plays).

ATL24@

NO10

Final

ATL · 57% pass · -0.026 EPA/play

60% pass · -0.119 EPA/play · NO

ATL had allowed the 6th-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for NO.
through week 11 · 10 games · 112 rush yds/gm (league median 92.7)
Week 12: 29 allowed · league median 84.5
NO had allowed the 8th-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for ATL.
through week 11 · 10 games · 105.5 rush yds/gm (league median 92.7)
Week 12: 116 allowed · league median 84.5
ATL had allowed the 4th-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for NO.
through week 11 · 10 games · 37.9 rec yds/gm (league median 53.6)
Week 12: 53 allowed · league median 53

BUF19@

HOU23

Final

BUF · 53% pass · 0.159 EPA/play

61% pass · -0.003 EPA/play · HOU

BUF had allowed the 2nd-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for HOU.
through week 11 · 10 games · 121.2 rush yds/gm (league median 92.7)
Week 12: 90 allowed · league median 84.5
HOU had allowed the 6th-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for BUF.
through week 11 · 10 games · 40 rec yds/gm (league median 53.6)
Week 12: 43 allowed · league median 53
HOU had allowed the 5th-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for BUF.
through week 11 · 10 games · 122.4 rec yds/gm (league median 143.4)
Week 12: 150 allowed · league median 122
HOU had allowed the 3rd-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for BUF.
through week 11 · 10 games · 68.5 rush yds/gm (league median 92.7)
Week 12: 123 allowed · league median 84.5
BUF had allowed the 1st-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for HOU.
through week 11 · 10 games · 27 rec yds/gm (league median 53.6)
Week 12: 8 allowed · league median 53

CAR9@

SF20

Final

CAR · 55% pass · -0.043 EPA/play

59% pass · 0.067 EPA/play · SF

SF had allowed the 4th-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for CAR.
through week 11 · 11 games · 165.2 rec yds/gm (league median 143.4)
Week 12: 100 allowed · league median 122
CAR had allowed the 8th-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for SF.
through week 11 · 11 games · 65.3 rec yds/gm (league median 53.6)
Week 12: 81 allowed · league median 53

CLE24@

LV10

Final

CLE · 61% pass · -0.189 EPA/play

61% pass · -0.170 EPA/play · LV

LV had allowed the 6th-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for CLE.
through week 11 · 10 games · 164 rec yds/gm (league median 143.4)
Week 12: 110 allowed · league median 122
CLE had allowed the 8th-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for LV.
through week 11 · 10 games · 42.3 rec yds/gm (league median 53.6)
Week 12: 105 allowed · league median 53
LV had allowed the 5th-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for CLE.
through week 11 · 10 games · 39.5 rec yds/gm (league median 53.6)
Week 12: 40 allowed · league median 53
CLE had allowed the 2nd-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for LV.
through week 11 · 10 games · 120.7 rec yds/gm (league median 143.4)
Week 12: 104 allowed · league median 122

IND20@

KC23

Final

IND · 57% pass · 0.186 EPA/play

61% pass · 0.152 EPA/play · KC

IND had allowed the 2nd-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for KC.
through week 11 · 10 games · 72.6 rec yds/gm (league median 53.6)
Week 12: 68 allowed · league median 53
KC had allowed the 6th-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for IND.
through week 11 · 10 games · 124.7 rec yds/gm (league median 143.4)
Week 12: 111 allowed · league median 122
KC had allowed the 5th-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for IND.
through week 11 · 10 games · 74.8 rush yds/gm (league median 92.7)
Week 12: 58 allowed · league median 84.5

JAX27@

ARI24

Final

JAX · 56% pass · 0.003 EPA/play

63% pass · -0.005 EPA/play · ARI

JAX had allowed the 4th-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for ARI.
through week 11 · 10 games · 69.4 rec yds/gm (league median 53.6)
Week 12: 85 allowed · league median 53
JAX had allowed the 2nd-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for ARI.
through week 11 · 10 games · 66.5 rush yds/gm (league median 92.7)
Week 12: 40 allowed · league median 84.5

MIN6@

GB23

Final

MIN · 62% pass · -0.113 EPA/play

55% pass · 0.150 EPA/play · GB

MIN had allowed the 8th-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for GB.
through week 11 · 10 games · 127.7 rec yds/gm (league median 143.4)
Week 12: 104 allowed · league median 122

NE26@

CIN20

Final

NE · 55% pass · 0.114 EPA/play

68% pass · -0.035 EPA/play · CIN

CIN had allowed the 1st-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for NE.
through week 11 · 10 games · 80.8 rec yds/gm (league median 53.6)
Week 12: 154 allowed · league median 53
CIN had allowed the 1st-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for NE.
through week 11 · 10 games · 137.1 rush yds/gm (league median 92.7)
Week 12: 71 allowed · league median 84.5
NE had allowed the 3rd-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for CIN.
through week 11 · 10 games · 70.7 rec yds/gm (league median 53.6)
Week 12: 53 allowed · league median 53
NE had allowed the 1st-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for CIN.
through week 11 · 11 games · 58.5 rush yds/gm (league median 92.7)
Week 12: 112 allowed · league median 84.5

NYG27@

DET34

Final

NYG · 55% pass · 0.005 EPA/play

55% pass · 0.096 EPA/play · DET

NYG had allowed the 3rd-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for DET.
through week 11 · 11 games · 116.8 rush yds/gm (league median 92.7)
Week 12: 237 allowed · league median 84.5
NYG had allowed the 5th-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for DET.
through week 11 · 11 games · 165.1 rec yds/gm (league median 143.4)
Week 12: 186 allowed · league median 122
DET had allowed the 7th-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for NYG.
through week 11 · 10 games · 76.3 rush yds/gm (league median 92.7)
Week 12: 109 allowed · league median 84.5

NYJ10@

BAL23

Final

NYJ · 53% pass · -0.059 EPA/play

52% pass · 0.012 EPA/play · BAL

No defense in this game stood out in either direction going in. That is a real result, not missing data — a mid-pack matchup is the null case, and saying nothing about it is more honest than dressing “16th-most” up as insight.

PHI21@

DAL24

Final

PHI · 51% pass · 0.032 EPA/play

61% pass · 0.118 EPA/play · DAL

DAL had allowed the 7th-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for PHI.
through week 11 · 10 games · 163.4 rec yds/gm (league median 143.4)
Week 12: 209 allowed · league median 122
PHI had allowed the 2nd-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for DAL.
through week 11 · 10 games · 29.2 rec yds/gm (league median 53.6)
Week 12: 64 allowed · league median 53

PIT28@

CHI31

Final

PIT · 60% pass · 0.016 EPA/play

54% pass · 0.069 EPA/play · CHI

PIT had allowed the 1st-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for CHI.
through week 11 · 10 games · 186 rec yds/gm (league median 143.4)
Week 12: 169 allowed · league median 122
PIT had allowed the 7th-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for CHI.
through week 11 · 10 games · 67.1 rec yds/gm (league median 53.6)
Week 12: 56 allowed · league median 53

SEA30@

TEN24

Final

SEA · 49% pass · 0.036 EPA/play

65% pass · -0.198 EPA/play · TEN

TEN had allowed the 3rd-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for SEA.
through week 11 · 10 games · 167.4 rec yds/gm (league median 143.4)
Week 12: 191 allowed · league median 122
SEA had allowed the 5th-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for TEN.
through week 11 · 10 games · 69.3 rec yds/gm (league median 53.6)
Week 12: 91 allowed · league median 53
TEN had allowed the 7th-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for SEA.
through week 11 · 10 games · 109 rush yds/gm (league median 92.7)
Week 12: 106 allowed · league median 84.5
SEA had allowed the 4th-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for TEN.
through week 11 · 10 games · 121.7 rec yds/gm (league median 143.4)
Week 12: 123 allowed · league median 122
SEA had allowed the 4th-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for TEN.
through week 11 · 10 games · 70.2 rush yds/gm (league median 92.7)
Week 12: 27 allowed · league median 84.5

TB7@

LA34

Final

TB · 58% pass · 0.025 EPA/play

58% pass · 0.113 EPA/play · LA

TB had allowed the 8th-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for LA.
through week 11 · 10 games · 160.3 rec yds/gm (league median 143.4)
Week 12: 201 allowed · league median 122
LA had allowed the 8th-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for TB.
through week 11 · 10 games · 76.9 rush yds/gm (league median 92.7)
Week 12: 86 allowed · league median 84.5
TB had allowed the 7th-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for LA.
through week 11 · 10 games · 40.7 rec yds/gm (league median 53.6)
Week 12: 70 allowed · league median 53

This is the whole product, on real football: context you can check, with its sample size attached, and no claim we haven’t measured. When the 2026 season starts, the same notes appear on the matchup pages — beside a line archive that records what the price did.

See this season’s matchups

Read this before the results

This is not a third backtest. Two pre-registered attempts to beat NFL game markets both found no edge. That budget is only spent by comparing a forecast to a price, and this replay never sees one.

Did the descriptions hold?

Week 12 alone

61.5%

24 of 39 statements

A single week is a few dozen statements — far too few to separate a real effect from one good or bad Sunday. It is shown beside the season figure, never instead of it.

All 14 weeks, 2025

54.6%

341 of 624 statements · 95% CI 50.7–58.5%

The interval clears 50, so the descriptions do carry week to week — but only just. A matchup note is a real tilt, not a reason to be confident.

How often each kind of statement holds

By claim

What a chip on a row is actually quoting. The classes are not equal, and until now the site showed one average for all of them.

“generous to WRs”

63/105 held · 95% CI 50.4–68.9

60%

“stingy against WRs”

57/107 held · 95% CI 43.9–62.4includes 50 — no measured edge

53.3%

“generous to TEs”

57/102 held · 95% CI 46.2–65.1includes 50 — no measured edge

55.9%

“stingy against TEs”

62/106 held · 95% CI 49–67.4includes 50 — no measured edge

58.5%

“generous to RBs”

48/100 held · 95% CI 38.5–57.7includes 50 — no measured edge

48%

“stingy against RBs”

54/104 held · 95% CI 42.4–61.3includes 50 — no measured edge

51.9%

By how strong the claim was

The calibration question: does a statement about the most extreme defense in the league hold up better than one about the eighth? Directionally yes — but read the intervals before believing it.

Top 3 in the league

135/234 held · 95% CI 51.3–63.8

57.7%

Ranked 4th–8th

206/390 held · 95% CI 47.9–57.7includes 50 — no measured edge

52.8%

The spread between our best and worst class is real: “generous to WRs” at 60% against “generous to RBs” at 48%. If you only trust one kind of matchup note here, trust the first.

Week by week — tap one to open it

Bars measured from 50%. Week 12 is open below — tap any bar to read that week in full. The default is week 6, one of the worst of the season, on purpose.

Every week-12 game

Each note is what the model would have said going in, with the sample size it rested on. the description still held that week · it did not · not scoreable (bye or no qualifying plays).

ATL24@

NO10

Final

ATL · 57% pass · -0.026 EPA/play

60% pass · -0.119 EPA/play · NO

ATL had allowed the 6th-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for NO.
through week 11 · 10 games · 112 rush yds/gm (league median 92.7)
Week 12: 29 allowed · league median 84.5
NO had allowed the 8th-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for ATL.
through week 11 · 10 games · 105.5 rush yds/gm (league median 92.7)
Week 12: 116 allowed · league median 84.5
ATL had allowed the 4th-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for NO.
through week 11 · 10 games · 37.9 rec yds/gm (league median 53.6)
Week 12: 53 allowed · league median 53

BUF19@

HOU23

Final

BUF · 53% pass · 0.159 EPA/play

61% pass · -0.003 EPA/play · HOU

BUF had allowed the 2nd-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for HOU.
through week 11 · 10 games · 121.2 rush yds/gm (league median 92.7)
Week 12: 90 allowed · league median 84.5
HOU had allowed the 6th-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for BUF.
through week 11 · 10 games · 40 rec yds/gm (league median 53.6)
Week 12: 43 allowed · league median 53
HOU had allowed the 5th-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for BUF.
through week 11 · 10 games · 122.4 rec yds/gm (league median 143.4)
Week 12: 150 allowed · league median 122
HOU had allowed the 3rd-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for BUF.
through week 11 · 10 games · 68.5 rush yds/gm (league median 92.7)
Week 12: 123 allowed · league median 84.5
BUF had allowed the 1st-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for HOU.
through week 11 · 10 games · 27 rec yds/gm (league median 53.6)
Week 12: 8 allowed · league median 53

CAR9@

SF20

Final

CAR · 55% pass · -0.043 EPA/play

59% pass · 0.067 EPA/play · SF

SF had allowed the 4th-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for CAR.
through week 11 · 11 games · 165.2 rec yds/gm (league median 143.4)
Week 12: 100 allowed · league median 122
CAR had allowed the 8th-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for SF.
through week 11 · 11 games · 65.3 rec yds/gm (league median 53.6)
Week 12: 81 allowed · league median 53

CLE24@

LV10

Final

CLE · 61% pass · -0.189 EPA/play

61% pass · -0.170 EPA/play · LV

LV had allowed the 6th-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for CLE.
through week 11 · 10 games · 164 rec yds/gm (league median 143.4)
Week 12: 110 allowed · league median 122
CLE had allowed the 8th-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for LV.
through week 11 · 10 games · 42.3 rec yds/gm (league median 53.6)
Week 12: 105 allowed · league median 53
LV had allowed the 5th-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for CLE.
through week 11 · 10 games · 39.5 rec yds/gm (league median 53.6)
Week 12: 40 allowed · league median 53
CLE had allowed the 2nd-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for LV.
through week 11 · 10 games · 120.7 rec yds/gm (league median 143.4)
Week 12: 104 allowed · league median 122

IND20@

KC23

Final

IND · 57% pass · 0.186 EPA/play

61% pass · 0.152 EPA/play · KC

IND had allowed the 2nd-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for KC.
through week 11 · 10 games · 72.6 rec yds/gm (league median 53.6)
Week 12: 68 allowed · league median 53
KC had allowed the 6th-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for IND.
through week 11 · 10 games · 124.7 rec yds/gm (league median 143.4)
Week 12: 111 allowed · league median 122
KC had allowed the 5th-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for IND.
through week 11 · 10 games · 74.8 rush yds/gm (league median 92.7)
Week 12: 58 allowed · league median 84.5

JAX27@

ARI24

Final

JAX · 56% pass · 0.003 EPA/play

63% pass · -0.005 EPA/play · ARI

JAX had allowed the 4th-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for ARI.
through week 11 · 10 games · 69.4 rec yds/gm (league median 53.6)
Week 12: 85 allowed · league median 53
JAX had allowed the 2nd-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for ARI.
through week 11 · 10 games · 66.5 rush yds/gm (league median 92.7)
Week 12: 40 allowed · league median 84.5

MIN6@

GB23

Final

MIN · 62% pass · -0.113 EPA/play

55% pass · 0.150 EPA/play · GB

MIN had allowed the 8th-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for GB.
through week 11 · 10 games · 127.7 rec yds/gm (league median 143.4)
Week 12: 104 allowed · league median 122

NE26@

CIN20

Final

NE · 55% pass · 0.114 EPA/play

68% pass · -0.035 EPA/play · CIN

CIN had allowed the 1st-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for NE.
through week 11 · 10 games · 80.8 rec yds/gm (league median 53.6)
Week 12: 154 allowed · league median 53
CIN had allowed the 1st-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for NE.
through week 11 · 10 games · 137.1 rush yds/gm (league median 92.7)
Week 12: 71 allowed · league median 84.5
NE had allowed the 3rd-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for CIN.
through week 11 · 10 games · 70.7 rec yds/gm (league median 53.6)
Week 12: 53 allowed · league median 53
NE had allowed the 1st-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for CIN.
through week 11 · 11 games · 58.5 rush yds/gm (league median 92.7)
Week 12: 112 allowed · league median 84.5

NYG27@

DET34

Final

NYG · 55% pass · 0.005 EPA/play

55% pass · 0.096 EPA/play · DET

NYG had allowed the 3rd-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for DET.
through week 11 · 11 games · 116.8 rush yds/gm (league median 92.7)
Week 12: 237 allowed · league median 84.5
NYG had allowed the 5th-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for DET.
through week 11 · 11 games · 165.1 rec yds/gm (league median 143.4)
Week 12: 186 allowed · league median 122
DET had allowed the 7th-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for NYG.
through week 11 · 10 games · 76.3 rush yds/gm (league median 92.7)
Week 12: 109 allowed · league median 84.5

NYJ10@

BAL23

Final

NYJ · 53% pass · -0.059 EPA/play

52% pass · 0.012 EPA/play · BAL

PHI21@

DAL24

Final

PHI · 51% pass · 0.032 EPA/play

61% pass · 0.118 EPA/play · DAL

DAL had allowed the 7th-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for PHI.
through week 11 · 10 games · 163.4 rec yds/gm (league median 143.4)
Week 12: 209 allowed · league median 122
PHI had allowed the 2nd-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for DAL.
through week 11 · 10 games · 29.2 rec yds/gm (league median 53.6)
Week 12: 64 allowed · league median 53

PIT28@

CHI31

Final

PIT · 60% pass · 0.016 EPA/play

54% pass · 0.069 EPA/play · CHI

PIT had allowed the 1st-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for CHI.
through week 11 · 10 games · 186 rec yds/gm (league median 143.4)
Week 12: 169 allowed · league median 122
PIT had allowed the 7th-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for CHI.
through week 11 · 10 games · 67.1 rec yds/gm (league median 53.6)
Week 12: 56 allowed · league median 53

SEA30@

TEN24

Final

SEA · 49% pass · 0.036 EPA/play

65% pass · -0.198 EPA/play · TEN

TEN had allowed the 3rd-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for SEA.
through week 11 · 10 games · 167.4 rec yds/gm (league median 143.4)
Week 12: 191 allowed · league median 122
SEA had allowed the 5th-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for TEN.
through week 11 · 10 games · 69.3 rec yds/gm (league median 53.6)
Week 12: 91 allowed · league median 53
TEN had allowed the 7th-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for SEA.
through week 11 · 10 games · 109 rush yds/gm (league median 92.7)
Week 12: 106 allowed · league median 84.5
SEA had allowed the 4th-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for TEN.
through week 11 · 10 games · 121.7 rec yds/gm (league median 143.4)
Week 12: 123 allowed · league median 122
SEA had allowed the 4th-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for TEN.
through week 11 · 10 games · 70.2 rush yds/gm (league median 92.7)
Week 12: 27 allowed · league median 84.5

TB7@

LA34

Final

TB · 58% pass · 0.025 EPA/play

58% pass · 0.113 EPA/play · LA

TB had allowed the 8th-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for LA.
through week 11 · 10 games · 160.3 rec yds/gm (league median 143.4)
Week 12: 201 allowed · league median 122
LA had allowed the 8th-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for TB.
through week 11 · 10 games · 76.9 rush yds/gm (league median 92.7)
Week 12: 86 allowed · league median 84.5
TB had allowed the 7th-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for LA.
through week 11 · 10 games · 40.7 rec yds/gm (league median 53.6)
Week 12: 70 allowed · league median 53