We rebuilt the model from weeks 1–13 only — 194 completed games, nothing after — wrote down what it had to say about each week-14 matchup, and then opened the week to see whether those statements survived. Every scoreable week of 2025 is here; pick one from the chart below.
No prices are involved. Our line archive is append-only and begins on 29 July 2026, so there are no archived 2025 closes — and inventing them from another source would be exactly the fabricated data this product exists to refuse. Nothing here says whether a bet would have won.
This is not a third backtest. Two pre-registered attempts to beat NFL game markets both found no edge. That budget is only spent by comparing a forecast to a price, and this replay never sees one.
What it does measure: whether a statement like “this defense has allowed the 2nd-most receiving yards to receivers” was still true the following week — the defense staying on the same side of the league median.
A single week is a few dozen statements — far too few to separate a real effect from one good or bad Sunday. It is shown beside the season figure, never instead of it.
The interval clears 50, so the descriptions do carry week to week — but only just. A matchup note is a real tilt, not a reason to be confident.
Every confidence percentage on THE LINE links here. It is not a win probability and not a projection — it is how often a statement of that exact class was still true the week after we made it, measured across all 624 scoreable statements of the 2025 season.
What a chip on a row is actually quoting. The classes are not equal, and until now the site showed one average for all of them.
“generous to WRs”
63/105 held · 95% CI 50.4–68.9
60%
“stingy against WRs”
57/107 held · 95% CI 43.9–62.4includes 50 — no measured edge
53.3%
“generous to TEs”
57/102 held · 95% CI 46.2–65.1includes 50 — no measured edge
55.9%
“stingy against TEs”
62/106 held · 95% CI 49–67.4includes 50 — no measured edge
58.5%
“generous to RBs”
48/100 held · 95% CI 38.5–57.7includes 50 — no measured edge
48%
“stingy against RBs”
54/104 held · 95% CI 42.4–61.3includes 50 — no measured edge
51.9%
The calibration question: does a statement about the most extreme defense in the league hold up better than one about the eighth? Directionally yes — but read the intervals before believing it.
Top 3 in the league
135/234 held · 95% CI 51.3–63.8
57.7%
Ranked 4th–8th
206/390 held · 95% CI 47.9–57.7includes 50 — no measured edge
52.8%
The spread between our best and worst class is real: “generous to WRs” at 60% against “generous to RBs” at 48%. If you only trust one kind of matchup note here, trust the first.
Sharper claims did hold more often — 57.7% against 52.8% — but the two intervals overlap heavily, so we cannot claim that gap is real. It is reported because it is what we measured, not because it flatters the model.
A class whose 95% interval includes 50 is marked in amber and is not distinguishable from a coin flip. We leave those on the site, labelled, rather than quietly dropping the boards that produce them — a reliability table that only ever confirms the product is marketing.
Each note is what the model would have said going in, with the sample size it rested on. the description still held that week · it did not · not scoreable (bye or no qualifying plays).
CHI21@
GB28GB had allowed the 7th-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for CHI.
through week 13 · 12 games · 43.3 rec yds/gm (league median 51.4)
Week 14: 73 allowed · league median 53
CIN34@
BUF39CIN had allowed the 1st-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for BUF.
through week 13 · 12 games · 93.4 rec yds/gm (league median 51.4)
Week 14: 137 allowed · league median 53
CIN had allowed the 1st-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for BUF.
through week 13 · 12 games · 128.2 rush yds/gm (league median 94.4)
Week 14: 105 allowed · league median 98
BUF had allowed the 3rd-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for CIN.
through week 13 · 12 games · 113.3 rush yds/gm (league median 94.4)
Week 14: 54 allowed · league median 98
CIN had allowed the 6th-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for BUF.
through week 13 · 12 games · 123.9 rec yds/gm (league median 139)
Week 14: 69 allowed · league median 138.5
BUF had allowed the 1st-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for CIN.
through week 13 · 12 games · 27.4 rec yds/gm (league median 51.4)
Week 14: 112 allowed · league median 53
DAL30@
DET44DAL had allowed the 3rd-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for DET.
through week 13 · 12 games · 168 rec yds/gm (league median 139)
Week 14: 208 allowed · league median 138.5
DET had allowed the 8th-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for DAL.
through week 13 · 12 games · 80.8 rush yds/gm (league median 94.4)
Week 14: 73 allowed · league median 98
DEN24@
LV17LV had allowed the 8th-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for DEN.
through week 13 · 12 games · 156 rec yds/gm (league median 139)
Week 14: 137 allowed · league median 138.5
DEN had allowed the 7th-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for LV.
through week 13 · 12 games · 77.5 rush yds/gm (league median 94.4)
Week 14: 30 allowed · league median 98
LV had allowed the 3rd-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for DEN.
through week 13 · 12 games · 38.5 rec yds/gm (league median 51.4)
Week 14: 25 allowed · league median 53
HOU20@
KC10HOU had allowed the 8th-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for KC.
through week 13 · 12 games · 125.8 rec yds/gm (league median 139)
Week 14: 148 allowed · league median 138.5
KC had allowed the 5th-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for HOU.
through week 13 · 12 games · 76 rush yds/gm (league median 94.4)
Week 14: 76 allowed · league median 98
HOU had allowed the 5th-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for KC.
through week 13 · 12 games · 39.4 rec yds/gm (league median 51.4)
Week 14: 22 allowed · league median 53
HOU had allowed the 4th-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for KC.
through week 13 · 12 games · 74.4 rush yds/gm (league median 94.4)
Week 14: 67 allowed · league median 98
IND19@
JAX36IND had allowed the 2nd-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for JAX.
through week 13 · 12 games · 72.1 rec yds/gm (league median 51.4)
Week 14: 27 allowed · league median 53
JAX had allowed the 4th-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for IND.
through week 13 · 12 games · 69.3 rec yds/gm (league median 51.4)
Week 14: 15 allowed · league median 53
IND had allowed the 6th-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for JAX.
through week 13 · 12 games · 164.2 rec yds/gm (league median 139)
Week 14: 204 allowed · league median 138.5
JAX had allowed the 1st-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for IND.
through week 13 · 12 games · 63.7 rush yds/gm (league median 94.4)
Week 14: 78 allowed · league median 98
LA45@
ARI17LA had allowed the 8th-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for ARI.
through week 13 · 12 games · 45.3 rec yds/gm (league median 51.4)
Week 14: 58 allowed · league median 53
MIA34@
NYJ10MIA had allowed the 5th-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for NYJ.
through week 13 · 12 games · 66.8 rec yds/gm (league median 51.4)
Week 14: 70 allowed · league median 53
MIA had allowed the 5th-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for NYJ.
through week 13 · 12 games · 109.2 rush yds/gm (league median 94.4)
Week 14: 65 allowed · league median 98
MIA had allowed the 3rd-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for NYJ.
through week 13 · 12 games · 115.8 rec yds/gm (league median 139)
Week 14: 82 allowed · league median 138.5
NO24@
TB20NO had allowed the 4th-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for TB.
through week 13 · 12 games · 110.9 rush yds/gm (league median 94.4)
Week 14: 137 allowed · league median 98
TB had allowed the 7th-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for NO.
through week 13 · 12 games · 160.3 rec yds/gm (league median 139)
Week 14: 70 allowed · league median 138.5
NO had allowed the 7th-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for TB.
through week 13 · 12 games · 124.6 rec yds/gm (league median 139)
Week 14: 75 allowed · league median 138.5
TB had allowed the 6th-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for NO.
through week 13 · 12 games · 77.4 rush yds/gm (league median 94.4)
Week 14: 85 allowed · league median 98
PHI19@
LAC22LAC had allowed the 6th-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for PHI.
through week 13 · 12 games · 40.5 rec yds/gm (league median 51.4)
Week 14: 78 allowed · league median 53
LAC had allowed the 4th-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for PHI.
through week 13 · 12 games · 116.3 rec yds/gm (league median 139)
Week 14: 159 allowed · league median 138.5
PHI had allowed the 2nd-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for LAC.
through week 13 · 12 games · 35 rec yds/gm (league median 51.4)
Week 14: 8 allowed · league median 53
PIT27@
BAL22PIT had allowed the 1st-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for BAL.
through week 13 · 12 games · 171.8 rec yds/gm (league median 139)
Week 14: 147 allowed · league median 138.5
PIT had allowed the 8th-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for BAL.
through week 13 · 12 games · 63.8 rec yds/gm (league median 51.4)
Week 14: 53 allowed · league median 53
SEA37@
ATL9SEA had allowed the 3rd-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for ATL.
through week 13 · 12 games · 70.3 rec yds/gm (league median 51.4)
Week 14: 90 allowed · league median 53
ATL had allowed the 4th-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for SEA.
through week 13 · 12 games · 38.8 rec yds/gm (league median 51.4)
Week 14: 27 allowed · league median 53
SEA had allowed the 3rd-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for ATL.
through week 13 · 12 games · 66.3 rush yds/gm (league median 94.4)
Week 14: 120 allowed · league median 98
SEA had allowed the 2nd-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for ATL.
through week 13 · 12 games · 115 rec yds/gm (league median 139)
Week 14: 31 allowed · league median 138.5
TEN31@
CLE29TEN had allowed the 2nd-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for CLE.
through week 13 · 12 games · 168.3 rec yds/gm (league median 139)
Week 14: 117 allowed · league median 138.5
CLE had allowed the 1st-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for TEN.
through week 13 · 12 games · 113.7 rec yds/gm (league median 139)
Week 14: 55 allowed · league median 138.5
WAS0@
MIN31WAS had allowed the 4th-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for MIN.
through week 13 · 12 games · 167.2 rec yds/gm (league median 139)
Week 14: 113 allowed · league median 138.5
WAS had allowed the 6th-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for MIN.
through week 13 · 12 games · 108.9 rush yds/gm (league median 94.4)
Week 14: 143 allowed · league median 98
MIN had allowed the 7th-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for WAS.
through week 13 · 12 games · 107.2 rush yds/gm (league median 94.4)
Week 14: 84 allowed · league median 98
MIN had allowed the 5th-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for WAS.
through week 13 · 12 games · 121.3 rec yds/gm (league median 139)
Week 14: 87 allowed · league median 138.5
This is the whole product, on real football: context you can check, with its sample size attached, and no claim we haven’t measured. When the 2026 season starts, the same notes appear on the matchup pages — beside a line archive that records what the price did.
See this season’s matchups