THE LINE · WEEK REPLAY

2025, week 17.Assessed before it was played.

We rebuilt the model from weeks 1–16 only — 240 completed games, nothing after — wrote down what it had to say about each week-17 matchup, and then opened the week to see whether those statements survived. Every scoreable week of 2025 is here; pick one from the chart below.

Week 17 games

240

Games the model saw

Statements checked

54.6%

Held, full season

Read this before the results

No prices are involved. Our line archive is append-only and begins on 29 July 2026, so there are no archived 2025 closes — and inventing them from another source would be exactly the fabricated data this product exists to refuse. Nothing here says whether a bet would have won.

This is not a third backtest. Two pre-registered attempts to beat NFL game markets both found no edge. That budget is only spent by comparing a forecast to a price, and this replay never sees one.

What it does measure: whether a statement like “this defense has allowed the 2nd-most receiving yards to receivers” was still true the following week — the defense staying on the same side of the league median.

Did the descriptions hold?

Week 17 alone

50%

24 of 48 statements

A single week is a few dozen statements — far too few to separate a real effect from one good or bad Sunday. It is shown beside the season figure, never instead of it.

All 14 weeks, 2025

54.6%

341 of 624 statements · 95% CI 50.7–58.5%

The interval clears 50, so the descriptions do carry week to week — but only just. A matchup note is a real tilt, not a reason to be confident.

How often each kind of statement holds

Every confidence percentage on THE LINE links here. It is not a win probability and not a projection — it is how often a statement of that exact class was still true the week after we made it, measured across all 624 scoreable statements of the 2025 season.

By claim

What a chip on a row is actually quoting. The classes are not equal, and until now the site showed one average for all of them.

“generous to WRs”

63/105 held · 95% CI 50.4–68.9

60%

“stingy against WRs”

57/107 held · 95% CI 43.9–62.4includes 50 — no measured edge

53.3%

“generous to TEs”

57/102 held · 95% CI 46.2–65.1includes 50 — no measured edge

55.9%

“stingy against TEs”

62/106 held · 95% CI 49–67.4includes 50 — no measured edge

58.5%

“generous to RBs”

48/100 held · 95% CI 38.5–57.7includes 50 — no measured edge

48%

“stingy against RBs”

54/104 held · 95% CI 42.4–61.3includes 50 — no measured edge

51.9%

By how strong the claim was

The calibration question: does a statement about the most extreme defense in the league hold up better than one about the eighth? Directionally yes — but read the intervals before believing it.

Top 3 in the league

135/234 held · 95% CI 51.3–63.8

57.7%

Ranked 4th–8th

206/390 held · 95% CI 47.9–57.7includes 50 — no measured edge

52.8%

The spread between our best and worst class is real: “generous to WRs” at 60% against “generous to RBs” at 48%. If you only trust one kind of matchup note here, trust the first.

Sharper claims did hold more often — 57.7% against 52.8% — but the two intervals overlap heavily, so we cannot claim that gap is real. It is reported because it is what we measured, not because it flatters the model.

A class whose 95% interval includes 50 is marked in amber and is not distinguishable from a coin flip. We leave those on the site, labelled, rather than quietly dropping the boards that produce them — a reliability table that only ever confirms the product is marketing.

Week by week — tap one to open it

Bars measured from 50%. Week 17 is open below — tap any bar to read that week in full. The default is week 6, one of the worst of the season, on purpose.

Every week-17 game

Each note is what the model would have said going in, with the sample size it rested on. the description still held that week · it did not · not scoreable (bye or no qualifying plays).

ARI14@

CIN37

Final

ARI · 65% pass · -0.020 EPA/play

65% pass · -0.028 EPA/play · CIN

CIN had allowed the 1st-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for ARI.
through week 16 · 15 games · 90.8 rec yds/gm (league median 53.5)
Week 17: 76 allowed · league median 51.5
CIN had allowed the 1st-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for ARI.
through week 16 · 15 games · 128.3 rush yds/gm (league median 94.5)
Week 17: 42 allowed · league median 92.5
ARI had allowed the 5th-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for CIN.
through week 16 · 15 games · 112.7 rush yds/gm (league median 94.5)
Week 17: 116 allowed · league median 92.5
ARI had allowed the 7th-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for CIN.
through week 16 · 15 games · 63.5 rec yds/gm (league median 53.5)
Week 17: 86 allowed · league median 51.5
CIN had allowed the 5th-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for ARI.
through week 16 · 15 games · 119.6 rec yds/gm (league median 140.2)
Week 17: 113 allowed · league median 139

BAL41@

GB24

Final

BAL · 51% pass · -0.001 EPA/play

53% pass · 0.139 EPA/play · GB

BAL had allowed the 5th-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for GB.
through week 16 · 15 games · 164.9 rec yds/gm (league median 140.2)
Week 17: 235 allowed · league median 139
GB had allowed the 5th-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for BAL.
through week 16 · 15 games · 43.2 rec yds/gm (league median 53.5)
Week 17: 55 allowed · league median 51.5

CHI38@

SF42

Final

CHI · 54% pass · 0.067 EPA/play

56% pass · 0.094 EPA/play · SF

No defense in this game stood out in either direction going in. That is a real result, not missing data — a mid-pack matchup is the null case, and saying nothing about it is more honest than dressing “16th-most” up as insight.

DAL30@

WAS23

Final

DAL · 61% pass · 0.099 EPA/play

52% pass · -0.001 EPA/play · WAS

DAL had allowed the 1st-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for WAS.
through week 16 · 15 games · 174.3 rec yds/gm (league median 140.2)
Week 17: 157 allowed · league median 139
WAS had allowed the 3rd-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for DAL.
through week 16 · 15 games · 113.6 rush yds/gm (league median 94.5)
Week 17: 187 allowed · league median 92.5

DEN20@

KC13

Final

DEN · 60% pass · 0.060 EPA/play

60% pass · 0.078 EPA/play · KC

DEN had allowed the 8th-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for KC.
through week 16 · 15 games · 62.8 rec yds/gm (league median 53.5)
Week 17: 38 allowed · league median 51.5
KC had allowed the 8th-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for DEN.
through week 16 · 15 games · 82.5 rush yds/gm (league median 94.5)
Week 17: 86 allowed · league median 92.5
DEN had allowed the 2nd-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for KC.
through week 16 · 15 games · 73.7 rush yds/gm (league median 94.5)
Week 17: 70 allowed · league median 92.5

DET10@

MIN23

Final

DET · 59% pass · 0.115 EPA/play

59% pass · -0.111 EPA/play · MIN

DET had allowed the 3rd-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for MIN.
through week 16 · 15 games · 168.8 rec yds/gm (league median 140.2)
Week 17: 30 allowed · league median 139
MIN had allowed the 6th-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for DET.
through week 16 · 15 games · 107.7 rush yds/gm (league median 94.5)
Week 17: 66 allowed · league median 92.5
MIN had allowed the 4th-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for DET.
through week 16 · 15 games · 119.3 rec yds/gm (league median 140.2)
Week 17: 159 allowed · league median 139

HOU20@

LAC16

Final

HOU · 58% pass · -0.004 EPA/play

57% pass · 0.015 EPA/play · LAC

HOU had allowed the 8th-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for LAC.
through week 16 · 15 games · 121.7 rec yds/gm (league median 140.2)
Week 17: 154 allowed · league median 139
HOU had allowed the 8th-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for LAC.
through week 16 · 15 games · 45.1 rec yds/gm (league median 53.5)
Week 17: 51 allowed · league median 51.5
LAC had allowed the 6th-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for HOU.
through week 16 · 15 games · 43.5 rec yds/gm (league median 53.5)
Week 17: 19 allowed · league median 51.5
HOU had allowed the 5th-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for LAC.
through week 16 · 15 games · 77.3 rush yds/gm (league median 94.5)
Week 17: 30 allowed · league median 92.5

JAX23@

IND17

Final

JAX · 56% pass · 0.021 EPA/play

57% pass · 0.099 EPA/play · IND

IND had allowed the 2nd-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for JAX.
through week 16 · 15 games · 170.1 rec yds/gm (league median 140.2)
Week 17: 193 allowed · league median 139
IND had allowed the 2nd-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for JAX.
through week 16 · 15 games · 70 rec yds/gm (league median 53.5)
Week 17: 54 allowed · league median 51.5
JAX had allowed the 1st-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for IND.
through week 16 · 15 games · 68 rush yds/gm (league median 94.5)
Week 17: 70 allowed · league median 92.5

LA24@

ATL27

Final

LA · 58% pass · 0.154 EPA/play

56% pass · -0.015 EPA/play · ATL

LA had allowed the 8th-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for ATL.
through week 16 · 15 games · 159.2 rec yds/gm (league median 140.2)
Week 17: 76 allowed · league median 139
LA had allowed the 7th-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for ATL.
through week 16 · 15 games · 81.9 rush yds/gm (league median 94.5)
Week 17: 218 allowed · league median 92.5
ATL had allowed the 4th-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for LA.
through week 16 · 15 games · 41.1 rec yds/gm (league median 53.5)
Week 17: 107 allowed · league median 51.5

NE42@

NYJ10

Final

NE · 56% pass · 0.124 EPA/play

55% pass · -0.115 EPA/play · NYJ

NE had allowed the 6th-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for NYJ.
through week 16 · 14 games · 64.9 rec yds/gm (league median 53.5)
Week 17: 24 allowed · league median 51.5
NE had allowed the 3rd-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for NYJ.
through week 16 · 15 games · 74.7 rush yds/gm (league median 94.5)
Week 17: 158 allowed · league median 92.5

NO34@

TEN26

Final

NO · 60% pass · -0.104 EPA/play

63% pass · -0.146 EPA/play · TEN

TEN had allowed the 7th-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for NO.
through week 16 · 15 games · 159.9 rec yds/gm (league median 140.2)
Week 17: 224 allowed · league median 139
NO had allowed the 7th-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for TEN.
through week 16 · 15 games · 107.2 rush yds/gm (league median 94.5)
Week 17: 91 allowed · league median 92.5
NO had allowed the 3rd-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for TEN.
through week 16 · 15 games · 118.7 rec yds/gm (league median 140.2)
Week 17: 177 allowed · league median 139

NYG34@

LV10

Final

NYG · 53% pass · -0.011 EPA/play

62% pass · -0.195 EPA/play · LV

NYG had allowed the 2nd-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for LV.
through week 16 · 15 games · 121.9 rush yds/gm (league median 94.5)
Week 17: 62 allowed · league median 92.5
NYG had allowed the 6th-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for LV.
through week 16 · 15 games · 160.6 rec yds/gm (league median 140.2)
Week 17: 90 allowed · league median 139
NYG had allowed the 7th-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for LV.
through week 16 · 15 games · 44.7 rec yds/gm (league median 53.5)
Week 17: 89 allowed · league median 51.5
LV had allowed the 3rd-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for NYG.
through week 16 · 15 games · 40.2 rec yds/gm (league median 53.5)
Week 17: 11 allowed · league median 51.5

PHI13@

BUF12

Final

PHI · 52% pass · 0.044 EPA/play

51% pass · 0.139 EPA/play · BUF

BUF had allowed the 4th-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for PHI.
through week 16 · 15 games · 112.9 rush yds/gm (league median 94.5)
Week 17: 77 allowed · league median 92.5
BUF had allowed the 7th-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for PHI.
through week 16 · 15 games · 121.4 rec yds/gm (league median 140.2)
Week 17: 97 allowed · league median 139
BUF had allowed the 2nd-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for PHI.
through week 16 · 15 games · 32.9 rec yds/gm (league median 53.5)
Week 17: 11 allowed · league median 51.5
PHI had allowed the 1st-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for BUF.
through week 16 · 15 games · 30.7 rec yds/gm (league median 53.5)
Week 17: 30 allowed · league median 51.5

PIT6@

CLE13

Final

PIT · 59% pass · 0.039 EPA/play

60% pass · -0.192 EPA/play · CLE

PIT had allowed the 4th-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for CLE.
through week 16 · 15 games · 165.5 rec yds/gm (league median 140.2)
Week 17: 116 allowed · league median 139
PIT had allowed the 5th-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for CLE.
through week 16 · 15 games · 67.7 rec yds/gm (league median 53.5)
Week 17: 60 allowed · league median 51.5
CLE had allowed the 1st-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for PIT.
through week 16 · 15 games · 108.6 rec yds/gm (league median 140.2)
Week 17: 60 allowed · league median 139

SEA27@

CAR10

Final

SEA · 52% pass · 0.037 EPA/play

55% pass · -0.015 EPA/play · CAR

SEA had allowed the 3rd-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for CAR.
through week 16 · 15 games · 69.3 rec yds/gm (league median 53.5)
Week 17: 11 allowed · league median 51.5
SEA had allowed the 6th-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for CAR.
through week 16 · 15 games · 120.5 rec yds/gm (league median 140.2)
Week 17: 33 allowed · league median 139
SEA had allowed the 4th-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for CAR.
through week 16 · 15 games · 75.7 rush yds/gm (league median 94.5)
Week 17: 71 allowed · league median 92.5

TB17@

MIA20

Final

TB · 57% pass · -0.013 EPA/play

56% pass · -0.003 EPA/play · MIA

MIA had allowed the 4th-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for TB.
through week 16 · 15 games · 68.3 rec yds/gm (league median 53.5)
Week 17: 33 allowed · league median 51.5
MIA had allowed the 8th-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for TB.
through week 16 · 15 games · 106 rush yds/gm (league median 94.5)
Week 17: 37 allowed · league median 92.5
TB had allowed the 6th-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for MIA.
through week 16 · 15 games · 78.7 rush yds/gm (league median 94.5)
Week 17: 139 allowed · league median 92.5
MIA had allowed the 2nd-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for TB.
through week 16 · 15 games · 115.7 rec yds/gm (league median 140.2)
Week 17: 292 allowed · league median 139

This is the whole product, on real football: context you can check, with its sample size attached, and no claim we haven’t measured. When the 2026 season starts, the same notes appear on the matchup pages — beside a line archive that records what the price did.

See this season’s matchups

Read this before the results

This is not a third backtest. Two pre-registered attempts to beat NFL game markets both found no edge. That budget is only spent by comparing a forecast to a price, and this replay never sees one.

Did the descriptions hold?

Week 17 alone

50%

24 of 48 statements

A single week is a few dozen statements — far too few to separate a real effect from one good or bad Sunday. It is shown beside the season figure, never instead of it.

All 14 weeks, 2025

54.6%

341 of 624 statements · 95% CI 50.7–58.5%

The interval clears 50, so the descriptions do carry week to week — but only just. A matchup note is a real tilt, not a reason to be confident.

How often each kind of statement holds

By claim

What a chip on a row is actually quoting. The classes are not equal, and until now the site showed one average for all of them.

“generous to WRs”

63/105 held · 95% CI 50.4–68.9

60%

“stingy against WRs”

57/107 held · 95% CI 43.9–62.4includes 50 — no measured edge

53.3%

“generous to TEs”

57/102 held · 95% CI 46.2–65.1includes 50 — no measured edge

55.9%

“stingy against TEs”

62/106 held · 95% CI 49–67.4includes 50 — no measured edge

58.5%

“generous to RBs”

48/100 held · 95% CI 38.5–57.7includes 50 — no measured edge

48%

“stingy against RBs”

54/104 held · 95% CI 42.4–61.3includes 50 — no measured edge

51.9%

By how strong the claim was

The calibration question: does a statement about the most extreme defense in the league hold up better than one about the eighth? Directionally yes — but read the intervals before believing it.

Top 3 in the league

135/234 held · 95% CI 51.3–63.8

57.7%

Ranked 4th–8th

206/390 held · 95% CI 47.9–57.7includes 50 — no measured edge

52.8%

The spread between our best and worst class is real: “generous to WRs” at 60% against “generous to RBs” at 48%. If you only trust one kind of matchup note here, trust the first.

Week by week — tap one to open it

Bars measured from 50%. Week 17 is open below — tap any bar to read that week in full. The default is week 6, one of the worst of the season, on purpose.

Every week-17 game

Each note is what the model would have said going in, with the sample size it rested on. the description still held that week · it did not · not scoreable (bye or no qualifying plays).

ARI14@

CIN37

Final

ARI · 65% pass · -0.020 EPA/play

65% pass · -0.028 EPA/play · CIN

CIN had allowed the 1st-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for ARI.
through week 16 · 15 games · 90.8 rec yds/gm (league median 53.5)
Week 17: 76 allowed · league median 51.5
CIN had allowed the 1st-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for ARI.
through week 16 · 15 games · 128.3 rush yds/gm (league median 94.5)
Week 17: 42 allowed · league median 92.5
ARI had allowed the 5th-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for CIN.
through week 16 · 15 games · 112.7 rush yds/gm (league median 94.5)
Week 17: 116 allowed · league median 92.5
ARI had allowed the 7th-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for CIN.
through week 16 · 15 games · 63.5 rec yds/gm (league median 53.5)
Week 17: 86 allowed · league median 51.5
CIN had allowed the 5th-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for ARI.
through week 16 · 15 games · 119.6 rec yds/gm (league median 140.2)
Week 17: 113 allowed · league median 139

BAL41@

GB24

Final

BAL · 51% pass · -0.001 EPA/play

53% pass · 0.139 EPA/play · GB

BAL had allowed the 5th-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for GB.
through week 16 · 15 games · 164.9 rec yds/gm (league median 140.2)
Week 17: 235 allowed · league median 139
GB had allowed the 5th-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for BAL.
through week 16 · 15 games · 43.2 rec yds/gm (league median 53.5)
Week 17: 55 allowed · league median 51.5

CHI38@

SF42

Final

CHI · 54% pass · 0.067 EPA/play

56% pass · 0.094 EPA/play · SF

DAL30@

WAS23

Final

DAL · 61% pass · 0.099 EPA/play

52% pass · -0.001 EPA/play · WAS

DAL had allowed the 1st-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for WAS.
through week 16 · 15 games · 174.3 rec yds/gm (league median 140.2)
Week 17: 157 allowed · league median 139
WAS had allowed the 3rd-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for DAL.
through week 16 · 15 games · 113.6 rush yds/gm (league median 94.5)
Week 17: 187 allowed · league median 92.5

DEN20@

KC13

Final

DEN · 60% pass · 0.060 EPA/play

60% pass · 0.078 EPA/play · KC

DEN had allowed the 8th-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for KC.
through week 16 · 15 games · 62.8 rec yds/gm (league median 53.5)
Week 17: 38 allowed · league median 51.5
KC had allowed the 8th-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for DEN.
through week 16 · 15 games · 82.5 rush yds/gm (league median 94.5)
Week 17: 86 allowed · league median 92.5
DEN had allowed the 2nd-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for KC.
through week 16 · 15 games · 73.7 rush yds/gm (league median 94.5)
Week 17: 70 allowed · league median 92.5

DET10@

MIN23

Final

DET · 59% pass · 0.115 EPA/play

59% pass · -0.111 EPA/play · MIN

DET had allowed the 3rd-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for MIN.
through week 16 · 15 games · 168.8 rec yds/gm (league median 140.2)
Week 17: 30 allowed · league median 139
MIN had allowed the 6th-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for DET.
through week 16 · 15 games · 107.7 rush yds/gm (league median 94.5)
Week 17: 66 allowed · league median 92.5
MIN had allowed the 4th-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for DET.
through week 16 · 15 games · 119.3 rec yds/gm (league median 140.2)
Week 17: 159 allowed · league median 139

HOU20@

LAC16

Final

HOU · 58% pass · -0.004 EPA/play

57% pass · 0.015 EPA/play · LAC

HOU had allowed the 8th-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for LAC.
through week 16 · 15 games · 121.7 rec yds/gm (league median 140.2)
Week 17: 154 allowed · league median 139
HOU had allowed the 8th-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for LAC.
through week 16 · 15 games · 45.1 rec yds/gm (league median 53.5)
Week 17: 51 allowed · league median 51.5
LAC had allowed the 6th-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for HOU.
through week 16 · 15 games · 43.5 rec yds/gm (league median 53.5)
Week 17: 19 allowed · league median 51.5
HOU had allowed the 5th-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for LAC.
through week 16 · 15 games · 77.3 rush yds/gm (league median 94.5)
Week 17: 30 allowed · league median 92.5

JAX23@

IND17

Final

JAX · 56% pass · 0.021 EPA/play

57% pass · 0.099 EPA/play · IND

IND had allowed the 2nd-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for JAX.
through week 16 · 15 games · 170.1 rec yds/gm (league median 140.2)
Week 17: 193 allowed · league median 139
IND had allowed the 2nd-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for JAX.
through week 16 · 15 games · 70 rec yds/gm (league median 53.5)
Week 17: 54 allowed · league median 51.5
JAX had allowed the 1st-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for IND.
through week 16 · 15 games · 68 rush yds/gm (league median 94.5)
Week 17: 70 allowed · league median 92.5

LA24@

ATL27

Final

LA · 58% pass · 0.154 EPA/play

56% pass · -0.015 EPA/play · ATL

LA had allowed the 8th-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for ATL.
through week 16 · 15 games · 159.2 rec yds/gm (league median 140.2)
Week 17: 76 allowed · league median 139
LA had allowed the 7th-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for ATL.
through week 16 · 15 games · 81.9 rush yds/gm (league median 94.5)
Week 17: 218 allowed · league median 92.5
ATL had allowed the 4th-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for LA.
through week 16 · 15 games · 41.1 rec yds/gm (league median 53.5)
Week 17: 107 allowed · league median 51.5

NE42@

NYJ10

Final

NE · 56% pass · 0.124 EPA/play

55% pass · -0.115 EPA/play · NYJ

NE had allowed the 6th-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for NYJ.
through week 16 · 14 games · 64.9 rec yds/gm (league median 53.5)
Week 17: 24 allowed · league median 51.5
NE had allowed the 3rd-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for NYJ.
through week 16 · 15 games · 74.7 rush yds/gm (league median 94.5)
Week 17: 158 allowed · league median 92.5

NO34@

TEN26

Final

NO · 60% pass · -0.104 EPA/play

63% pass · -0.146 EPA/play · TEN

TEN had allowed the 7th-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for NO.
through week 16 · 15 games · 159.9 rec yds/gm (league median 140.2)
Week 17: 224 allowed · league median 139
NO had allowed the 7th-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for TEN.
through week 16 · 15 games · 107.2 rush yds/gm (league median 94.5)
Week 17: 91 allowed · league median 92.5
NO had allowed the 3rd-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for TEN.
through week 16 · 15 games · 118.7 rec yds/gm (league median 140.2)
Week 17: 177 allowed · league median 139

NYG34@

LV10

Final

NYG · 53% pass · -0.011 EPA/play

62% pass · -0.195 EPA/play · LV

NYG had allowed the 2nd-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for LV.
through week 16 · 15 games · 121.9 rush yds/gm (league median 94.5)
Week 17: 62 allowed · league median 92.5
NYG had allowed the 6th-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for LV.
through week 16 · 15 games · 160.6 rec yds/gm (league median 140.2)
Week 17: 90 allowed · league median 139
NYG had allowed the 7th-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for LV.
through week 16 · 15 games · 44.7 rec yds/gm (league median 53.5)
Week 17: 89 allowed · league median 51.5
LV had allowed the 3rd-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for NYG.
through week 16 · 15 games · 40.2 rec yds/gm (league median 53.5)
Week 17: 11 allowed · league median 51.5

PHI13@

BUF12

Final

PHI · 52% pass · 0.044 EPA/play

51% pass · 0.139 EPA/play · BUF

BUF had allowed the 4th-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for PHI.
through week 16 · 15 games · 112.9 rush yds/gm (league median 94.5)
Week 17: 77 allowed · league median 92.5
BUF had allowed the 7th-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for PHI.
through week 16 · 15 games · 121.4 rec yds/gm (league median 140.2)
Week 17: 97 allowed · league median 139
BUF had allowed the 2nd-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for PHI.
through week 16 · 15 games · 32.9 rec yds/gm (league median 53.5)
Week 17: 11 allowed · league median 51.5
PHI had allowed the 1st-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for BUF.
through week 16 · 15 games · 30.7 rec yds/gm (league median 53.5)
Week 17: 30 allowed · league median 51.5

PIT6@

CLE13

Final

PIT · 59% pass · 0.039 EPA/play

60% pass · -0.192 EPA/play · CLE

PIT had allowed the 4th-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for CLE.
through week 16 · 15 games · 165.5 rec yds/gm (league median 140.2)
Week 17: 116 allowed · league median 139
PIT had allowed the 5th-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for CLE.
through week 16 · 15 games · 67.7 rec yds/gm (league median 53.5)
Week 17: 60 allowed · league median 51.5
CLE had allowed the 1st-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for PIT.
through week 16 · 15 games · 108.6 rec yds/gm (league median 140.2)
Week 17: 60 allowed · league median 139

SEA27@

CAR10

Final

SEA · 52% pass · 0.037 EPA/play

55% pass · -0.015 EPA/play · CAR

SEA had allowed the 3rd-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for CAR.
through week 16 · 15 games · 69.3 rec yds/gm (league median 53.5)
Week 17: 11 allowed · league median 51.5
SEA had allowed the 6th-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for CAR.
through week 16 · 15 games · 120.5 rec yds/gm (league median 140.2)
Week 17: 33 allowed · league median 139
SEA had allowed the 4th-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for CAR.
through week 16 · 15 games · 75.7 rush yds/gm (league median 94.5)
Week 17: 71 allowed · league median 92.5

TB17@

MIA20

Final

TB · 57% pass · -0.013 EPA/play

56% pass · -0.003 EPA/play · MIA

MIA had allowed the 4th-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for TB.
through week 16 · 15 games · 68.3 rec yds/gm (league median 53.5)
Week 17: 33 allowed · league median 51.5
MIA had allowed the 8th-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for TB.
through week 16 · 15 games · 106 rush yds/gm (league median 94.5)
Week 17: 37 allowed · league median 92.5
TB had allowed the 6th-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for MIA.
through week 16 · 15 games · 78.7 rush yds/gm (league median 94.5)
Week 17: 139 allowed · league median 92.5
MIA had allowed the 2nd-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for TB.
through week 16 · 15 games · 115.7 rec yds/gm (league median 140.2)
Week 17: 292 allowed · league median 139