THE LINE · WEEK REPLAY

2025, week 11.Assessed before it was played.

We rebuilt the model from weeks 1–10 only — 149 completed games, nothing after — wrote down what it had to say about each week-11 matchup, and then opened the week to see whether those statements survived. Every scoreable week of 2025 is here; pick one from the chart below.

Week 11 games

149

Games the model saw

Statements checked

54.6%

Held, full season

Read this before the results

No prices are involved. Our line archive is append-only and begins on 29 July 2026, so there are no archived 2025 closes — and inventing them from another source would be exactly the fabricated data this product exists to refuse. Nothing here says whether a bet would have won.

This is not a third backtest. Two pre-registered attempts to beat NFL game markets both found no edge. That budget is only spent by comparing a forecast to a price, and this replay never sees one.

What it does measure: whether a statement like “this defense has allowed the 2nd-most receiving yards to receivers” was still true the following week — the defense staying on the same side of the league median.

Did the descriptions hold?

Week 11 alone

47.8%

22 of 46 statements

A single week is a few dozen statements — far too few to separate a real effect from one good or bad Sunday. It is shown beside the season figure, never instead of it.

All 14 weeks, 2025

54.6%

341 of 624 statements · 95% CI 50.7–58.5%

The interval clears 50, so the descriptions do carry week to week — but only just. A matchup note is a real tilt, not a reason to be confident.

How often each kind of statement holds

Every confidence percentage on THE LINE links here. It is not a win probability and not a projection — it is how often a statement of that exact class was still true the week after we made it, measured across all 624 scoreable statements of the 2025 season.

By claim

What a chip on a row is actually quoting. The classes are not equal, and until now the site showed one average for all of them.

“generous to WRs”

63/105 held · 95% CI 50.4–68.9

60%

“stingy against WRs”

57/107 held · 95% CI 43.9–62.4includes 50 — no measured edge

53.3%

“generous to TEs”

57/102 held · 95% CI 46.2–65.1includes 50 — no measured edge

55.9%

“stingy against TEs”

62/106 held · 95% CI 49–67.4includes 50 — no measured edge

58.5%

“generous to RBs”

48/100 held · 95% CI 38.5–57.7includes 50 — no measured edge

48%

“stingy against RBs”

54/104 held · 95% CI 42.4–61.3includes 50 — no measured edge

51.9%

By how strong the claim was

The calibration question: does a statement about the most extreme defense in the league hold up better than one about the eighth? Directionally yes — but read the intervals before believing it.

Top 3 in the league

135/234 held · 95% CI 51.3–63.8

57.7%

Ranked 4th–8th

206/390 held · 95% CI 47.9–57.7includes 50 — no measured edge

52.8%

The spread between our best and worst class is real: “generous to WRs” at 60% against “generous to RBs” at 48%. If you only trust one kind of matchup note here, trust the first.

Sharper claims did hold more often — 57.7% against 52.8% — but the two intervals overlap heavily, so we cannot claim that gap is real. It is reported because it is what we measured, not because it flatters the model.

A class whose 95% interval includes 50 is marked in amber and is not distinguishable from a coin flip. We leave those on the site, labelled, rather than quietly dropping the boards that produce them — a reliability table that only ever confirms the product is marketing.

Week by week — tap one to open it

Bars measured from 50%. Week 11 is open below — tap any bar to read that week in full. The default is week 6, one of the worst of the season, on purpose.

Every week-11 game

Each note is what the model would have said going in, with the sample size it rested on. the description still held that week · it did not · not scoreable (bye or no qualifying plays).

BAL23@

CLE16

Final

BAL · 53% pass · 0.024 EPA/play

62% pass · -0.168 EPA/play · CLE

BAL had allowed the 4th-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for CLE.
through week 10 · 9 games · 166.1 rec yds/gm (league median 144.3)
Week 11: 82 allowed · league median 112
CLE had allowed the 7th-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for BAL.
through week 10 · 9 games · 41.8 rec yds/gm (league median 52.1)
Week 11: 47 allowed · league median 43
CLE had allowed the 6th-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for BAL.
through week 10 · 9 games · 124.2 rec yds/gm (league median 144.3)
Week 11: 89 allowed · league median 112

CAR30@

ATL27

Final

CAR · 53% pass · -0.065 EPA/play

57% pass · -0.042 EPA/play · ATL

ATL had allowed the 4th-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for CAR.
through week 10 · 9 games · 116.9 rush yds/gm (league median 91.6)
Week 11: 68 allowed · league median 101
CAR had allowed the 6th-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for ATL.
through week 10 · 10 games · 70.4 rec yds/gm (league median 52.1)
Week 11: 14 allowed · league median 43
CAR had allowed the 8th-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for ATL.
through week 10 · 10 games · 124.9 rec yds/gm (league median 144.3)
Week 11: 164 allowed · league median 112
ATL had allowed the 4th-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for CAR.
through week 10 · 9 games · 122.7 rec yds/gm (league median 144.3)
Week 11: 282 allowed · league median 112
ATL had allowed the 2nd-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for CAR.
through week 10 · 9 games · 30.6 rec yds/gm (league median 52.1)
Week 11: 104 allowed · league median 43

CHI19@

MIN17

Final

CHI · 55% pass · 0.084 EPA/play

62% pass · -0.105 EPA/play · MIN

CHI had allowed the 7th-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for MIN.
through week 10 · 9 games · 160 rec yds/gm (league median 144.3)
Week 11: 103 allowed · league median 112

CIN12@

PIT34

Final

CIN · 68% pass · -0.011 EPA/play

61% pass · -0.006 EPA/play · PIT

PIT had allowed the 1st-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for CIN.
through week 10 · 9 games · 194.1 rec yds/gm (league median 144.3)
Week 11: 113 allowed · league median 112
CIN had allowed the 1st-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for PIT.
through week 10 · 9 games · 80.2 rec yds/gm (league median 52.1)
Week 11: 86 allowed · league median 43
CIN had allowed the 1st-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for PIT.
through week 10 · 9 games · 141.1 rush yds/gm (league median 91.6)
Week 11: 101 allowed · league median 101
PIT had allowed the 8th-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for CIN.
through week 10 · 9 games · 68.1 rec yds/gm (league median 52.1)
Week 11: 58 allowed · league median 43

DAL33@

LV16

Final

DAL · 61% pass · 0.116 EPA/play

59% pass · -0.164 EPA/play · LV

DAL had allowed the 3rd-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for LV.
through week 10 · 9 games · 170.6 rec yds/gm (league median 144.3)
Week 11: 99 allowed · league median 112
DAL had allowed the 7th-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for LV.
through week 10 · 9 games · 110.3 rush yds/gm (league median 91.6)
Week 11: 13 allowed · league median 101
LV had allowed the 6th-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for DAL.
through week 10 · 9 games · 41.7 rec yds/gm (league median 52.1)
Week 11: 20 allowed · league median 43

DET9@

PHI16

Final

DET · 54% pass · 0.149 EPA/play

53% pass · 0.068 EPA/play · PHI

DET had allowed the 4th-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for PHI.
through week 10 · 9 games · 71.8 rush yds/gm (league median 91.6)
Week 11: 117 allowed · league median 101
PHI had allowed the 3rd-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for DET.
through week 10 · 9 games · 31.6 rec yds/gm (league median 52.1)
Week 11: 8 allowed · league median 43

GB27@

NYG20

Final

GB · 55% pass · 0.131 EPA/play

56% pass · -0.011 EPA/play · NYG

NYG had allowed the 2nd-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for GB.
through week 10 · 10 games · 119.7 rush yds/gm (league median 91.6)
Week 11: 88 allowed · league median 101
NYG had allowed the 5th-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for GB.
through week 10 · 10 games · 165.1 rec yds/gm (league median 144.3)
Week 11: 165 allowed · league median 112

HOU16@

TEN13

Final

HOU · 60% pass · 0.005 EPA/play

65% pass · -0.207 EPA/play · TEN

TEN had allowed the 5th-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for HOU.
through week 10 · 9 games · 114.3 rush yds/gm (league median 91.6)
Week 11: 61 allowed · league median 101
TEN had allowed the 6th-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for HOU.
through week 10 · 9 games · 163 rec yds/gm (league median 144.3)
Week 11: 207 allowed · league median 112
HOU had allowed the 6th-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for TEN.
through week 10 · 9 games · 73.3 rush yds/gm (league median 91.6)
Week 11: 25 allowed · league median 101
HOU had allowed the 4th-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for TEN.
through week 10 · 9 games · 35 rec yds/gm (league median 52.1)
Week 11: 85 allowed · league median 43

KC19@

DEN22

Final

KC · 59% pass · 0.164 EPA/play

59% pass · 0.037 EPA/play · DEN

KC had allowed the 7th-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for DEN.
through week 10 · 9 games · 77.7 rush yds/gm (league median 91.6)
Week 11: 49 allowed · league median 101
DEN had allowed the 5th-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for KC.
through week 10 · 10 games · 123.7 rec yds/gm (league median 144.3)
Week 11: 164 allowed · league median 112
KC had allowed the 2nd-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for DEN.
through week 10 · 9 games · 113.6 rec yds/gm (league median 144.3)
Week 11: 225 allowed · league median 112

LAC6@

JAX35

Final

LAC · 61% pass · 0.036 EPA/play

59% pass · -0.006 EPA/play · JAX

JAX had allowed the 5th-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for LAC.
through week 10 · 9 games · 72.6 rec yds/gm (league median 52.1)
Week 11: 41 allowed · league median 43
LAC had allowed the 5th-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for JAX.
through week 10 · 10 games · 37.9 rec yds/gm (league median 52.1)
Week 11: 36 allowed · league median 43
JAX had allowed the 3rd-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for LAC.
through week 10 · 9 games · 71.7 rush yds/gm (league median 91.6)
Week 11: 20 allowed · league median 101
LAC had allowed the 3rd-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for JAX.
through week 10 · 10 games · 121.4 rec yds/gm (league median 144.3)
Week 11: 117 allowed · league median 112

NYJ14@

NE27

Final

NYJ · 53% pass · -0.057 EPA/play

54% pass · 0.109 EPA/play · NE

NE had allowed the 3rd-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for NYJ.
through week 10 · 9 games · 72.7 rec yds/gm (league median 52.1)
Week 11: 53 allowed · league median 43
NE had allowed the 1st-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for NYJ.
through week 10 · 10 games · 57.5 rush yds/gm (league median 91.6)
Week 11: 69 allowed · league median 101

SEA19@

LA21

Final

SEA · 48% pass · 0.073 EPA/play

58% pass · 0.139 EPA/play · LA

SEA had allowed the 2nd-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for LA.
through week 10 · 9 games · 72.9 rec yds/gm (league median 52.1)
Week 11: 37 allowed · league median 43
SEA had allowed the 7th-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for LA.
through week 10 · 9 games · 124.9 rec yds/gm (league median 144.3)
Week 11: 93 allowed · league median 112
LA had allowed the 5th-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for SEA.
through week 10 · 9 games · 73.2 rush yds/gm (league median 91.6)
Week 11: 110 allowed · league median 101
SEA had allowed the 2nd-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for LA.
through week 10 · 9 games · 66.8 rush yds/gm (league median 91.6)
Week 11: 101 allowed · league median 101

SF41@

ARI22

Final

SF · 59% pass · 0.057 EPA/play

61% pass · -0.014 EPA/play · ARI

No defense in this game stood out in either direction going in. That is a real result, not missing data — a mid-pack matchup is the null case, and saying nothing about it is more honest than dressing “16th-most” up as insight.

TB32@

BUF44

Final

TB · 60% pass · 0.022 EPA/play

52% pass · 0.150 EPA/play · BUF

BUF had allowed the 3rd-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for TB.
through week 10 · 9 games · 117.2 rush yds/gm (league median 91.6)
Week 11: 157 allowed · league median 101
TB had allowed the 8th-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for BUF.
through week 10 · 9 games · 160 rec yds/gm (league median 144.3)
Week 11: 163 allowed · league median 112
TB had allowed the 8th-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for BUF.
through week 10 · 9 games · 42.2 rec yds/gm (league median 52.1)
Week 11: 27 allowed · league median 43
BUF had allowed the 1st-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for TB.
through week 10 · 9 games · 26.9 rec yds/gm (league median 52.1)
Week 11: 28 allowed · league median 43

WAS13@

MIA16

Final

WAS · 53% pass · 0.027 EPA/play

59% pass · -0.003 EPA/play · MIA

WAS had allowed the 2nd-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for MIA.
through week 10 · 10 games · 177.9 rec yds/gm (league median 144.3)
Week 11: 94 allowed · league median 112
MIA had allowed the 6th-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for WAS.
through week 10 · 10 games · 112.8 rush yds/gm (league median 91.6)
Week 11: 120 allowed · league median 101
MIA had allowed the 7th-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for WAS.
through week 10 · 10 games · 70.3 rec yds/gm (league median 52.1)
Week 11: 46 allowed · league median 43
WAS had allowed the 8th-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for MIA.
through week 10 · 10 games · 107.6 rush yds/gm (league median 91.6)
Week 11: 169 allowed · league median 101
MIA had allowed the 1st-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for WAS.
through week 10 · 10 games · 109 rec yds/gm (league median 144.3)
Week 11: 140 allowed · league median 112

This is the whole product, on real football: context you can check, with its sample size attached, and no claim we haven’t measured. When the 2026 season starts, the same notes appear on the matchup pages — beside a line archive that records what the price did.

See this season’s matchups

Read this before the results

This is not a third backtest. Two pre-registered attempts to beat NFL game markets both found no edge. That budget is only spent by comparing a forecast to a price, and this replay never sees one.

Did the descriptions hold?

Week 11 alone

47.8%

22 of 46 statements

A single week is a few dozen statements — far too few to separate a real effect from one good or bad Sunday. It is shown beside the season figure, never instead of it.

All 14 weeks, 2025

54.6%

341 of 624 statements · 95% CI 50.7–58.5%

The interval clears 50, so the descriptions do carry week to week — but only just. A matchup note is a real tilt, not a reason to be confident.

How often each kind of statement holds

By claim

What a chip on a row is actually quoting. The classes are not equal, and until now the site showed one average for all of them.

“generous to WRs”

63/105 held · 95% CI 50.4–68.9

60%

“stingy against WRs”

57/107 held · 95% CI 43.9–62.4includes 50 — no measured edge

53.3%

“generous to TEs”

57/102 held · 95% CI 46.2–65.1includes 50 — no measured edge

55.9%

“stingy against TEs”

62/106 held · 95% CI 49–67.4includes 50 — no measured edge

58.5%

“generous to RBs”

48/100 held · 95% CI 38.5–57.7includes 50 — no measured edge

48%

“stingy against RBs”

54/104 held · 95% CI 42.4–61.3includes 50 — no measured edge

51.9%

By how strong the claim was

The calibration question: does a statement about the most extreme defense in the league hold up better than one about the eighth? Directionally yes — but read the intervals before believing it.

Top 3 in the league

135/234 held · 95% CI 51.3–63.8

57.7%

Ranked 4th–8th

206/390 held · 95% CI 47.9–57.7includes 50 — no measured edge

52.8%

The spread between our best and worst class is real: “generous to WRs” at 60% against “generous to RBs” at 48%. If you only trust one kind of matchup note here, trust the first.

Week by week — tap one to open it

Bars measured from 50%. Week 11 is open below — tap any bar to read that week in full. The default is week 6, one of the worst of the season, on purpose.

Every week-11 game

Each note is what the model would have said going in, with the sample size it rested on. the description still held that week · it did not · not scoreable (bye or no qualifying plays).

BAL23@

CLE16

Final

BAL · 53% pass · 0.024 EPA/play

62% pass · -0.168 EPA/play · CLE

BAL had allowed the 4th-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for CLE.
through week 10 · 9 games · 166.1 rec yds/gm (league median 144.3)
Week 11: 82 allowed · league median 112
CLE had allowed the 7th-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for BAL.
through week 10 · 9 games · 41.8 rec yds/gm (league median 52.1)
Week 11: 47 allowed · league median 43
CLE had allowed the 6th-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for BAL.
through week 10 · 9 games · 124.2 rec yds/gm (league median 144.3)
Week 11: 89 allowed · league median 112

CAR30@

ATL27

Final

CAR · 53% pass · -0.065 EPA/play

57% pass · -0.042 EPA/play · ATL

ATL had allowed the 4th-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for CAR.
through week 10 · 9 games · 116.9 rush yds/gm (league median 91.6)
Week 11: 68 allowed · league median 101
CAR had allowed the 6th-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for ATL.
through week 10 · 10 games · 70.4 rec yds/gm (league median 52.1)
Week 11: 14 allowed · league median 43
CAR had allowed the 8th-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for ATL.
through week 10 · 10 games · 124.9 rec yds/gm (league median 144.3)
Week 11: 164 allowed · league median 112
ATL had allowed the 4th-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for CAR.
through week 10 · 9 games · 122.7 rec yds/gm (league median 144.3)
Week 11: 282 allowed · league median 112
ATL had allowed the 2nd-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for CAR.
through week 10 · 9 games · 30.6 rec yds/gm (league median 52.1)
Week 11: 104 allowed · league median 43

CHI19@

MIN17

Final

CHI · 55% pass · 0.084 EPA/play

62% pass · -0.105 EPA/play · MIN

CHI had allowed the 7th-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for MIN.
through week 10 · 9 games · 160 rec yds/gm (league median 144.3)
Week 11: 103 allowed · league median 112

CIN12@

PIT34

Final

CIN · 68% pass · -0.011 EPA/play

61% pass · -0.006 EPA/play · PIT

PIT had allowed the 1st-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for CIN.
through week 10 · 9 games · 194.1 rec yds/gm (league median 144.3)
Week 11: 113 allowed · league median 112
CIN had allowed the 1st-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for PIT.
through week 10 · 9 games · 80.2 rec yds/gm (league median 52.1)
Week 11: 86 allowed · league median 43
CIN had allowed the 1st-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for PIT.
through week 10 · 9 games · 141.1 rush yds/gm (league median 91.6)
Week 11: 101 allowed · league median 101
PIT had allowed the 8th-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for CIN.
through week 10 · 9 games · 68.1 rec yds/gm (league median 52.1)
Week 11: 58 allowed · league median 43

DAL33@

LV16

Final

DAL · 61% pass · 0.116 EPA/play

59% pass · -0.164 EPA/play · LV

DAL had allowed the 3rd-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for LV.
through week 10 · 9 games · 170.6 rec yds/gm (league median 144.3)
Week 11: 99 allowed · league median 112
DAL had allowed the 7th-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for LV.
through week 10 · 9 games · 110.3 rush yds/gm (league median 91.6)
Week 11: 13 allowed · league median 101
LV had allowed the 6th-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for DAL.
through week 10 · 9 games · 41.7 rec yds/gm (league median 52.1)
Week 11: 20 allowed · league median 43

DET9@

PHI16

Final

DET · 54% pass · 0.149 EPA/play

53% pass · 0.068 EPA/play · PHI

DET had allowed the 4th-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for PHI.
through week 10 · 9 games · 71.8 rush yds/gm (league median 91.6)
Week 11: 117 allowed · league median 101
PHI had allowed the 3rd-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for DET.
through week 10 · 9 games · 31.6 rec yds/gm (league median 52.1)
Week 11: 8 allowed · league median 43

GB27@

NYG20

Final

GB · 55% pass · 0.131 EPA/play

56% pass · -0.011 EPA/play · NYG

NYG had allowed the 2nd-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for GB.
through week 10 · 10 games · 119.7 rush yds/gm (league median 91.6)
Week 11: 88 allowed · league median 101
NYG had allowed the 5th-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for GB.
through week 10 · 10 games · 165.1 rec yds/gm (league median 144.3)
Week 11: 165 allowed · league median 112

HOU16@

TEN13

Final

HOU · 60% pass · 0.005 EPA/play

65% pass · -0.207 EPA/play · TEN

TEN had allowed the 5th-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for HOU.
through week 10 · 9 games · 114.3 rush yds/gm (league median 91.6)
Week 11: 61 allowed · league median 101
TEN had allowed the 6th-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for HOU.
through week 10 · 9 games · 163 rec yds/gm (league median 144.3)
Week 11: 207 allowed · league median 112
HOU had allowed the 6th-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for TEN.
through week 10 · 9 games · 73.3 rush yds/gm (league median 91.6)
Week 11: 25 allowed · league median 101
HOU had allowed the 4th-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for TEN.
through week 10 · 9 games · 35 rec yds/gm (league median 52.1)
Week 11: 85 allowed · league median 43

KC19@

DEN22

Final

KC · 59% pass · 0.164 EPA/play

59% pass · 0.037 EPA/play · DEN

KC had allowed the 7th-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for DEN.
through week 10 · 9 games · 77.7 rush yds/gm (league median 91.6)
Week 11: 49 allowed · league median 101
DEN had allowed the 5th-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for KC.
through week 10 · 10 games · 123.7 rec yds/gm (league median 144.3)
Week 11: 164 allowed · league median 112
KC had allowed the 2nd-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for DEN.
through week 10 · 9 games · 113.6 rec yds/gm (league median 144.3)
Week 11: 225 allowed · league median 112

LAC6@

JAX35

Final

LAC · 61% pass · 0.036 EPA/play

59% pass · -0.006 EPA/play · JAX

JAX had allowed the 5th-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for LAC.
through week 10 · 9 games · 72.6 rec yds/gm (league median 52.1)
Week 11: 41 allowed · league median 43
LAC had allowed the 5th-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for JAX.
through week 10 · 10 games · 37.9 rec yds/gm (league median 52.1)
Week 11: 36 allowed · league median 43
JAX had allowed the 3rd-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for LAC.
through week 10 · 9 games · 71.7 rush yds/gm (league median 91.6)
Week 11: 20 allowed · league median 101
LAC had allowed the 3rd-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for JAX.
through week 10 · 10 games · 121.4 rec yds/gm (league median 144.3)
Week 11: 117 allowed · league median 112

NYJ14@

NE27

Final

NYJ · 53% pass · -0.057 EPA/play

54% pass · 0.109 EPA/play · NE

NE had allowed the 3rd-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for NYJ.
through week 10 · 9 games · 72.7 rec yds/gm (league median 52.1)
Week 11: 53 allowed · league median 43
NE had allowed the 1st-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for NYJ.
through week 10 · 10 games · 57.5 rush yds/gm (league median 91.6)
Week 11: 69 allowed · league median 101

SEA19@

LA21

Final

SEA · 48% pass · 0.073 EPA/play

58% pass · 0.139 EPA/play · LA

SEA had allowed the 2nd-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for LA.
through week 10 · 9 games · 72.9 rec yds/gm (league median 52.1)
Week 11: 37 allowed · league median 43
SEA had allowed the 7th-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for LA.
through week 10 · 9 games · 124.9 rec yds/gm (league median 144.3)
Week 11: 93 allowed · league median 112
LA had allowed the 5th-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for SEA.
through week 10 · 9 games · 73.2 rush yds/gm (league median 91.6)
Week 11: 110 allowed · league median 101
SEA had allowed the 2nd-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for LA.
through week 10 · 9 games · 66.8 rush yds/gm (league median 91.6)
Week 11: 101 allowed · league median 101

SF41@

ARI22

Final

SF · 59% pass · 0.057 EPA/play

61% pass · -0.014 EPA/play · ARI

TB32@

BUF44

Final

TB · 60% pass · 0.022 EPA/play

52% pass · 0.150 EPA/play · BUF

BUF had allowed the 3rd-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for TB.
through week 10 · 9 games · 117.2 rush yds/gm (league median 91.6)
Week 11: 157 allowed · league median 101
TB had allowed the 8th-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for BUF.
through week 10 · 9 games · 160 rec yds/gm (league median 144.3)
Week 11: 163 allowed · league median 112
TB had allowed the 8th-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for BUF.
through week 10 · 9 games · 42.2 rec yds/gm (league median 52.1)
Week 11: 27 allowed · league median 43
BUF had allowed the 1st-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for TB.
through week 10 · 9 games · 26.9 rec yds/gm (league median 52.1)
Week 11: 28 allowed · league median 43

WAS13@

MIA16

Final

WAS · 53% pass · 0.027 EPA/play

59% pass · -0.003 EPA/play · MIA

WAS had allowed the 2nd-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for MIA.
through week 10 · 10 games · 177.9 rec yds/gm (league median 144.3)
Week 11: 94 allowed · league median 112
MIA had allowed the 6th-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for WAS.
through week 10 · 10 games · 112.8 rush yds/gm (league median 91.6)
Week 11: 120 allowed · league median 101
MIA had allowed the 7th-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for WAS.
through week 10 · 10 games · 70.3 rec yds/gm (league median 52.1)
Week 11: 46 allowed · league median 43
WAS had allowed the 8th-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for MIA.
through week 10 · 10 games · 107.6 rush yds/gm (league median 91.6)
Week 11: 169 allowed · league median 101
MIA had allowed the 1st-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for WAS.
through week 10 · 10 games · 109 rec yds/gm (league median 144.3)
Week 11: 140 allowed · league median 112