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THE LINE · WEEK REPLAY

2025, week 10.Assessed before it was played.

We rebuilt the model from weeks 1–9 only — 135 completed games, nothing after — wrote down what it had to say about each week-10 matchup, and then opened the week to see whether those statements survived. Every scoreable week of 2025 is here; pick one from the chart below.

14
Week 10 games
135
Games the model saw
41
Statements checked
54.6%
Held, full season

Read this before the results

No prices are involved. Our line archive is append-only and begins on 29 July 2026, so there are no archived 2025 closes — and inventing them from another source would be exactly the fabricated data this product exists to refuse. Nothing here says whether a bet would have won.

This is not a third backtest. Two pre-registered attempts to beat NFL game markets both found no edge. That budget is only spent by comparing a forecast to a price, and this replay never sees one.

What it does measure: whether a statement like “this defense has allowed the 2nd-most receiving yards to receivers” was still true the following week — the defense staying on the same side of the league median.

Did the descriptions hold?

Week 10 alone
61%
25 of 41 statements

A single week is a few dozen statements — far too few to separate a real effect from one good or bad Sunday. It is shown beside the season figure, never instead of it.

All 14 weeks, 2025
54.6%
341 of 624 statements · 95% CI 50.7–58.5%

The interval clears 50, so the descriptions do carry week to week — but only just. A matchup note is a real tilt, not a reason to be confident.

How often each kind of statement holds

Every confidence percentage on THE LINE links here. It is not a win probability and not a projection — it is how often a statement of that exact class was still true the week after we made it, measured across all 624 scoreable statements of the 2025 season.

By claim

What a chip on a row is actually quoting. The classes are not equal, and until now the site showed one average for all of them.

“generous to WRs”

63/105 held · 95% CI 50.4–68.9

60%

“stingy against WRs”

57/107 held · 95% CI 43.9–62.4includes 50 — no measured edge

53.3%

“generous to TEs”

57/102 held · 95% CI 46.2–65.1includes 50 — no measured edge

55.9%

“stingy against TEs”

62/106 held · 95% CI 49–67.4includes 50 — no measured edge

58.5%

“generous to RBs”

48/100 held · 95% CI 38.5–57.7includes 50 — no measured edge

48%

“stingy against RBs”

54/104 held · 95% CI 42.4–61.3includes 50 — no measured edge

51.9%

By how strong the claim was

The calibration question: does a statement about the most extreme defense in the league hold up better than one about the eighth? Directionally yes — but read the intervals before believing it.

Top 3 in the league

135/234 held · 95% CI 51.3–63.8

57.7%

Ranked 4th–8th

206/390 held · 95% CI 47.9–57.7includes 50 — no measured edge

52.8%

The spread between our best and worst class is real: “generous to WRs” at 60% against “generous to RBs” at 48%. If you only trust one kind of matchup note here, trust the first.

Sharper claims did hold more often — 57.7% against 52.8% — but the two intervals overlap heavily, so we cannot claim that gap is real. It is reported because it is what we measured, not because it flatters the model.

A class whose 95% interval includes 50 is marked in amber and is not distinguishable from a coin flip. We leave those on the site, labelled, rather than quietly dropping the boards that produce them — a reliability table that only ever confirms the product is marketing.

Week by week — tap one to open it
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Bars measured from 50%. Week 10 is open below — tap any bar to read that week in full. The default is week 6, one of the worst of the season, on purpose.

Every week-10 game

Each note is what the model would have said going in, with the sample size it rested on. the description still held that week · it did not · not scoreable (bye or no qualifying plays).

ARIARI22@SEASEA44
Final
ARI · 60% pass · 0.015 EPA/play
51% pass · 0.073 EPA/play · SEA
  • ARI had allowed the 6th-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for SEA.

    through week 9 · 8 games · 68.1 rec yds/gm (league median 52.4)

    Week 10: 5 allowed · league median 53

  • SEA had allowed the 8th-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for ARI.

    through week 9 · 8 games · 132.1 rec yds/gm (league median 142.8)

    Week 10: 67 allowed · league median 120

  • SEA had allowed the 2nd-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for ARI.

    through week 9 · 8 games · 63.1 rush yds/gm (league median 88.4)

    Week 10: 96 allowed · league median 92

ATLATL25@INDIND31
Final
ATL · 58% pass · -0.039 EPA/play
58% pass · 0.192 EPA/play · IND
  • IND had allowed the 3rd-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for ATL.

    through week 9 · 9 games · 74.9 rec yds/gm (league median 52.4)

    Week 10: 52 allowed · league median 53

  • IND had allowed the 4th-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for ATL.

    through week 9 · 9 games · 70.9 rush yds/gm (league median 88.4)

    Week 10: 141 allowed · league median 92

  • ATL had allowed the 3rd-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for IND.

    through week 9 · 8 games · 124.8 rec yds/gm (league median 142.8)

    Week 10: 106 allowed · league median 120

  • ATL had allowed the 1st-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for IND.

    through week 9 · 8 games · 22 rec yds/gm (league median 52.4)

    Week 10: 99 allowed · league median 53

BALBAL27@MINMIN19
Final
BAL · 53% pass · 0.028 EPA/play
61% pass · -0.097 EPA/play · MIN
  • BAL had allowed the 8th-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for MIN.

    through week 9 · 8 games · 160.4 rec yds/gm (league median 142.8)

    Week 10: 212 allowed · league median 120

BUFBUF13@MIAMIA30
Final
BUF · 50% pass · 0.180 EPA/play
61% pass · -0.034 EPA/play · MIA
  • MIA had allowed the 3rd-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for BUF.

    through week 9 · 9 games · 119.4 rush yds/gm (league median 88.4)

    Week 10: 53 allowed · league median 92

  • MIA had allowed the 7th-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for BUF.

    through week 9 · 9 games · 67 rec yds/gm (league median 52.4)

    Week 10: 100 allowed · league median 53

  • BUF had allowed the 8th-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for MIA.

    through week 9 · 8 games · 107.6 rush yds/gm (league median 88.4)

    Week 10: 194 allowed · league median 92

  • BUF had allowed the 2nd-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for MIA.

    through week 9 · 8 games · 27.5 rec yds/gm (league median 52.4)

    Week 10: 22 allowed · league median 53

  • MIA had allowed the 1st-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for BUF.

    through week 9 · 9 games · 103.6 rec yds/gm (league median 142.8)

    Week 10: 158 allowed · league median 120

CLECLE20@NYJNYJ27
Final
CLE · 63% pass · -0.180 EPA/play
55% pass · -0.035 EPA/play · NYJ
  • NYJ had allowed the 7th-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for CLE.

    through week 9 · 8 games · 108.6 rush yds/gm (league median 88.4)

    Week 10: 72 allowed · league median 92

DETDET44@WASWAS22
Final
DET · 54% pass · 0.103 EPA/play
53% pass · 0.013 EPA/play · WAS
  • WAS had allowed the 2nd-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for DET.

    through week 9 · 9 games · 171.3 rec yds/gm (league median 142.8)

    Week 10: 237 allowed · league median 120

  • DET had allowed the 6th-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for WAS.

    through week 9 · 8 games · 71.9 rush yds/gm (league median 88.4)

    Week 10: 71 allowed · league median 92

JAXJAX29@HOUHOU36
Final
JAX · 59% pass · 0.019 EPA/play
59% pass · -0.005 EPA/play · HOU
  • JAX had allowed the 2nd-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for HOU.

    through week 9 · 8 games · 75 rec yds/gm (league median 52.4)

    Week 10: 53 allowed · league median 53

  • HOU had allowed the 8th-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for JAX.

    through week 9 · 8 games · 74.6 rush yds/gm (league median 88.4)

    Week 10: 63 allowed · league median 92

  • HOU had allowed the 7th-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for JAX.

    through week 9 · 8 games · 130.4 rec yds/gm (league median 142.8)

    Week 10: 107 allowed · league median 120

  • HOU had allowed the 5th-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for JAX.

    through week 9 · 8 games · 36.8 rec yds/gm (league median 52.4)

    Week 10: 21 allowed · league median 53

  • JAX had allowed the 3rd-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for HOU.

    through week 9 · 8 games · 66.9 rush yds/gm (league median 88.4)

    Week 10: 110 allowed · league median 92

LALA42@SFSF26
Final
LA · 59% pass · 0.103 EPA/play
59% pass · 0.050 EPA/play · SF
  • SF had allowed the 7th-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for LA.

    through week 9 · 9 games · 43.4 rec yds/gm (league median 52.4)

    Week 10: 114 allowed · league median 53

  • LA had allowed the 7th-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for SF.

    through week 9 · 8 games · 73.5 rush yds/gm (league median 88.4)

    Week 10: 71 allowed · league median 92

  • LA had allowed the 6th-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for SF.

    through week 9 · 8 games · 41.5 rec yds/gm (league median 52.4)

    Week 10: 99 allowed · league median 53

LVLV7@DENDEN10
Final
LV · 59% pass · -0.135 EPA/play
59% pass · 0.065 EPA/play · DEN
  • LV had allowed the 5th-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for DEN.

    through week 9 · 8 games · 165.1 rec yds/gm (league median 142.8)

    Week 10: 107 allowed · league median 120

  • LV had allowed the 8th-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for DEN.

    through week 9 · 8 games · 45.1 rec yds/gm (league median 52.4)

    Week 10: 14 allowed · league median 53

  • DEN had allowed the 6th-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for LV.

    through week 9 · 9 games · 129 rec yds/gm (league median 142.8)

    Week 10: 76 allowed · league median 120

NENE28@TBTB23
Final
NE · 54% pass · 0.101 EPA/play
59% pass · 0.019 EPA/play · TB
  • NE had allowed the 5th-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for TB.

    through week 9 · 8 games · 71.5 rec yds/gm (league median 52.4)

    Week 10: 82 allowed · league median 53

  • TB had allowed the 5th-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for NE.

    through week 9 · 8 games · 71.3 rush yds/gm (league median 88.4)

    Week 10: 153 allowed · league median 92

  • NE had allowed the 1st-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for TB.

    through week 9 · 9 games · 53.8 rush yds/gm (league median 88.4)

    Week 10: 91 allowed · league median 92

NONO17@CARCAR7
Final
NO · 61% pass · -0.153 EPA/play
53% pass · -0.033 EPA/play · CAR
  • NO had allowed the 6th-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for CAR.

    through week 9 · 9 games · 109.8 rush yds/gm (league median 88.4)

    Week 10: 67 allowed · league median 92

  • CAR had allowed the 8th-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for NO.

    through week 9 · 9 games · 64.7 rec yds/gm (league median 52.4)

    Week 10: 122 allowed · league median 53

  • CAR had allowed the 5th-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for NO.

    through week 9 · 9 games · 125.6 rec yds/gm (league median 142.8)

    Week 10: 119 allowed · league median 120

NYGNYG20@CHICHI24
Final
NYG · 56% pass · -0.013 EPA/play
55% pass · 0.090 EPA/play · CHI
  • NYG had allowed the 2nd-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for CHI.

    through week 9 · 9 games · 121 rush yds/gm (league median 88.4)

    Week 10: 108 allowed · league median 92

  • NYG had allowed the 4th-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for CHI.

    through week 9 · 9 games · 167.7 rec yds/gm (league median 142.8)

    Week 10: 142 allowed · league median 120

  • CHI had allowed the 7th-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for NYG.

    through week 9 · 8 games · 161.1 rec yds/gm (league median 142.8)

    Week 10: 151 allowed · league median 120

PHIPHI10@GBGB7
Final
PHI · 54% pass · 0.087 EPA/play
54% pass · 0.172 EPA/play · GB
  • PHI had allowed the 3rd-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for GB.

    through week 9 · 8 games · 32.6 rec yds/gm (league median 52.4)

    Week 10: 23 allowed · league median 53

PITPIT10@LACLAC25
Final
PIT · 60% pass · 0.036 EPA/play
61% pass · 0.050 EPA/play · LAC
  • PIT had allowed the 1st-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for LAC.

    through week 9 · 8 games · 196.5 rec yds/gm (league median 142.8)

    Week 10: 175 allowed · league median 120

  • PIT had allowed the 4th-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for LAC.

    through week 9 · 8 games · 72.6 rec yds/gm (league median 52.4)

    Week 10: 32 allowed · league median 53

  • LAC had allowed the 4th-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for PIT.

    through week 9 · 9 games · 125.6 rec yds/gm (league median 142.8)

    Week 10: 84 allowed · league median 120

  • LAC had allowed the 4th-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for PIT.

    through week 9 · 9 games · 36.3 rec yds/gm (league median 52.4)

    Week 10: 52 allowed · league median 53

This is the whole product, on real football: context you can check, with its sample size attached, and no claim we haven’t measured. When the 2026 season starts, the same notes appear on the matchup pages — beside a line archive that records what the price did.

See this season’s matchups