THE LINE · WEEK REPLAY

2025, week 15.Assessed before it was played.

We rebuilt the model from weeks 1–14 only — 208 completed games, nothing after — wrote down what it had to say about each week-15 matchup, and then opened the week to see whether those statements survived. Every scoreable week of 2025 is here; pick one from the chart below.

Week 15 games

208

Games the model saw

Statements checked

54.6%

Held, full season

Read this before the results

No prices are involved. Our line archive is append-only and begins on 29 July 2026, so there are no archived 2025 closes — and inventing them from another source would be exactly the fabricated data this product exists to refuse. Nothing here says whether a bet would have won.

This is not a third backtest. Two pre-registered attempts to beat NFL game markets both found no edge. That budget is only spent by comparing a forecast to a price, and this replay never sees one.

What it does measure: whether a statement like “this defense has allowed the 2nd-most receiving yards to receivers” was still true the following week — the defense staying on the same side of the league median.

Did the descriptions hold?

Week 15 alone

58.3%

28 of 48 statements

A single week is a few dozen statements — far too few to separate a real effect from one good or bad Sunday. It is shown beside the season figure, never instead of it.

All 14 weeks, 2025

54.6%

341 of 624 statements · 95% CI 50.7–58.5%

The interval clears 50, so the descriptions do carry week to week — but only just. A matchup note is a real tilt, not a reason to be confident.

How often each kind of statement holds

Every confidence percentage on THE LINE links here. It is not a win probability and not a projection — it is how often a statement of that exact class was still true the week after we made it, measured across all 624 scoreable statements of the 2025 season.

By claim

What a chip on a row is actually quoting. The classes are not equal, and until now the site showed one average for all of them.

“generous to WRs”

63/105 held · 95% CI 50.4–68.9

60%

“stingy against WRs”

57/107 held · 95% CI 43.9–62.4includes 50 — no measured edge

53.3%

“generous to TEs”

57/102 held · 95% CI 46.2–65.1includes 50 — no measured edge

55.9%

“stingy against TEs”

62/106 held · 95% CI 49–67.4includes 50 — no measured edge

58.5%

“generous to RBs”

48/100 held · 95% CI 38.5–57.7includes 50 — no measured edge

48%

“stingy against RBs”

54/104 held · 95% CI 42.4–61.3includes 50 — no measured edge

51.9%

By how strong the claim was

The calibration question: does a statement about the most extreme defense in the league hold up better than one about the eighth? Directionally yes — but read the intervals before believing it.

Top 3 in the league

135/234 held · 95% CI 51.3–63.8

57.7%

Ranked 4th–8th

206/390 held · 95% CI 47.9–57.7includes 50 — no measured edge

52.8%

The spread between our best and worst class is real: “generous to WRs” at 60% against “generous to RBs” at 48%. If you only trust one kind of matchup note here, trust the first.

Sharper claims did hold more often — 57.7% against 52.8% — but the two intervals overlap heavily, so we cannot claim that gap is real. It is reported because it is what we measured, not because it flatters the model.

A class whose 95% interval includes 50 is marked in amber and is not distinguishable from a coin flip. We leave those on the site, labelled, rather than quietly dropping the boards that produce them — a reliability table that only ever confirms the product is marketing.

Week by week — tap one to open it

Bars measured from 50%. Week 15 is open below — tap any bar to read that week in full. The default is week 6, one of the worst of the season, on purpose.

Every week-15 game

Each note is what the model would have said going in, with the sample size it rested on. the description still held that week · it did not · not scoreable (bye or no qualifying plays).

ARI20@

HOU40

Final

ARI · 66% pass · -0.024 EPA/play

59% pass · -0.011 EPA/play · HOU

ARI had allowed the 7th-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for HOU.
through week 14 · 13 games · 107.9 rush yds/gm (league median 95.5)
Week 15: 133 allowed · league median 92.5
HOU had allowed the 5th-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for ARI.
through week 14 · 13 games · 38.1 rec yds/gm (league median 51.6)
Week 15: 138 allowed · league median 61
HOU had allowed the 5th-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for ARI.
through week 14 · 13 games · 73.8 rush yds/gm (league median 95.5)
Week 15: 66 allowed · league median 92.5

ATL29@

TB28

Final

ATL · 55% pass · -0.041 EPA/play

57% pass · -0.027 EPA/play · TB

TB had allowed the 7th-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for ATL.
through week 14 · 13 games · 78 rush yds/gm (league median 95.5)
Week 15: 111 allowed · league median 92.5
ATL had allowed the 4th-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for TB.
through week 14 · 13 games · 37.8 rec yds/gm (league median 51.6)
Week 15: 6 allowed · league median 61

BAL24@

CIN0

Final

BAL · 52% pass · -0.019 EPA/play

67% pass · -0.033 EPA/play · CIN

CIN had allowed the 1st-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for BAL.
through week 14 · 13 games · 96.8 rec yds/gm (league median 51.6)
Week 15: 18 allowed · league median 61
CIN had allowed the 1st-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for BAL.
through week 14 · 13 games · 126.4 rush yds/gm (league median 95.5)
Week 15: 166 allowed · league median 92.5
BAL had allowed the 8th-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for CIN.
through week 14 · 13 games · 157.7 rec yds/gm (league median 143.2)
Week 15: 148 allowed · league median 132
CIN had allowed the 6th-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for BAL.
through week 14 · 13 games · 119.7 rec yds/gm (league median 143.2)
Week 15: 100 allowed · league median 132

BUF35@

NE31

Final

BUF · 52% pass · 0.134 EPA/play

55% pass · 0.109 EPA/play · NE

NE had allowed the 5th-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for BUF.
through week 14 · 12 games · 65.8 rec yds/gm (league median 51.6)
Week 15: 80 allowed · league median 61
BUF had allowed the 6th-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for NE.
through week 14 · 13 games · 108.8 rush yds/gm (league median 95.5)
Week 15: 198 allowed · league median 92.5
NE had allowed the 8th-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for BUF.
through week 14 · 13 games · 126.8 rec yds/gm (league median 143.2)
Week 15: 81 allowed · league median 132
NE had allowed the 2nd-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for BUF.
through week 14 · 13 games · 66.2 rush yds/gm (league median 95.5)
Week 15: 120 allowed · league median 92.5
BUF had allowed the 2nd-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for NE.
through week 14 · 13 games · 33.9 rec yds/gm (league median 51.6)
Week 15: 18 allowed · league median 61

CAR17@

NO20

Final

CAR · 55% pass · -0.031 EPA/play

59% pass · -0.129 EPA/play · NO

NO had allowed the 3rd-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for CAR.
through week 14 · 13 games · 112.9 rush yds/gm (league median 95.5)
Week 15: 78 allowed · league median 92.5
CAR had allowed the 7th-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for NO.
through week 14 · 13 games · 63.8 rec yds/gm (league median 51.6)
Week 15: 37 allowed · league median 61
NO had allowed the 7th-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for CAR.
through week 14 · 13 games · 120.8 rec yds/gm (league median 143.2)
Week 15: 131 allowed · league median 132

CLE3@

CHI31

Final

CLE · 60% pass · -0.180 EPA/play

54% pass · 0.065 EPA/play · CHI

CLE had allowed the 2nd-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for CHI.
through week 14 · 13 games · 109.2 rec yds/gm (league median 143.2)
Week 15: 153 allowed · league median 132

DET34@

LA41

Final

DET · 56% pass · 0.112 EPA/play

58% pass · 0.140 EPA/play · LA

DET had allowed the 5th-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for LA.
through week 14 · 13 games · 165.2 rec yds/gm (league median 143.2)
Week 15: 261 allowed · league median 132
LA had allowed the 8th-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for DET.
through week 14 · 13 games · 78.8 rush yds/gm (league median 95.5)
Week 15: 70 allowed · league median 92.5

GB26@

DEN34

Final

GB · 53% pass · 0.156 EPA/play

60% pass · 0.059 EPA/play · DEN

DEN had allowed the 8th-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for GB.
through week 14 · 13 games · 63.7 rec yds/gm (league median 51.6)
Week 15: 70 allowed · league median 61
GB had allowed the 7th-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for DEN.
through week 14 · 13 games · 45.5 rec yds/gm (league median 51.6)
Week 15: 12 allowed · league median 61
DEN had allowed the 4th-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for GB.
through week 14 · 13 games · 73.8 rush yds/gm (league median 95.5)
Week 15: 86 allowed · league median 92.5

IND16@

SEA18

Final

IND · 57% pass · 0.124 EPA/play

50% pass · 0.043 EPA/play · SEA

SEA had allowed the 2nd-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for IND.
through week 14 · 13 games · 71.8 rec yds/gm (league median 51.6)
Week 15: 19 allowed · league median 61
IND had allowed the 3rd-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for SEA.
through week 14 · 13 games · 167.2 rec yds/gm (league median 143.2)
Week 15: 233 allowed · league median 132
IND had allowed the 3rd-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for SEA.
through week 14 · 13 games · 68.6 rec yds/gm (league median 51.6)
Week 15: 36 allowed · league median 61
SEA had allowed the 3rd-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for IND.
through week 14 · 13 games · 70.5 rush yds/gm (league median 95.5)
Week 15: 102 allowed · league median 92.5
SEA had allowed the 1st-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for IND.
through week 14 · 13 games · 108.5 rec yds/gm (league median 143.2)
Week 15: 55 allowed · league median 132

LAC16@

KC13

Final

LAC · 58% pass · -0.012 EPA/play

60% pass · 0.111 EPA/play · KC

KC had allowed the 6th-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for LAC.
through week 14 · 13 games · 76 rush yds/gm (league median 95.5)
Week 15: 94 allowed · league median 92.5
LAC had allowed the 6th-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for KC.
through week 14 · 13 games · 43.4 rec yds/gm (league median 51.6)
Week 15: 70 allowed · league median 61
LAC had allowed the 5th-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for KC.
through week 14 · 13 games · 119.5 rec yds/gm (league median 143.2)
Week 15: 133 allowed · league median 132

LV0@

PHI31

Final

LV · 63% pass · -0.194 EPA/play

55% pass · 0.004 EPA/play · PHI

LV had allowed the 3rd-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for PHI.
through week 14 · 13 games · 37.5 rec yds/gm (league median 51.6)
Week 15: 74 allowed · league median 61
PHI had allowed the 1st-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for LV.
through week 14 · 13 games · 32.9 rec yds/gm (league median 51.6)
Week 15: 28 allowed · league median 61

MIA15@

PIT28

Final

MIA · 55% pass · 0.003 EPA/play

59% pass · 0.006 EPA/play · PIT

PIT had allowed the 2nd-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for MIA.
through week 14 · 13 games · 169.8 rec yds/gm (league median 143.2)
Week 15: 36 allowed · league median 132
MIA had allowed the 4th-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for PIT.
through week 14 · 13 games · 67 rec yds/gm (league median 51.6)
Week 15: 82 allowed · league median 61
MIA had allowed the 8th-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for PIT.
through week 14 · 13 games · 105.8 rush yds/gm (league median 95.5)
Week 15: 117 allowed · league median 92.5
MIA had allowed the 3rd-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for PIT.
through week 14 · 13 games · 113.2 rec yds/gm (league median 143.2)
Week 15: 81 allowed · league median 132

MIN34@

DAL26

Final

MIN · 61% pass · -0.139 EPA/play

61% pass · 0.102 EPA/play · DAL

DAL had allowed the 1st-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for MIN.
through week 14 · 13 games · 171.1 rec yds/gm (league median 143.2)
Week 15: 135 allowed · league median 132
MIN had allowed the 4th-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for DAL.
through week 14 · 13 games · 118.7 rec yds/gm (league median 143.2)
Week 15: 219 allowed · league median 132

NYJ20@

JAX48

Final

NYJ · 54% pass · -0.091 EPA/play

55% pass · -0.005 EPA/play · JAX

NYJ had allowed the 4th-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for JAX.
through week 14 · 13 games · 112.4 rush yds/gm (league median 95.5)
Week 15: 50 allowed · league median 92.5
JAX had allowed the 6th-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for NYJ.
through week 14 · 13 games · 65.1 rec yds/gm (league median 51.6)
Week 15: 13 allowed · league median 61
JAX had allowed the 1st-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for NYJ.
through week 14 · 13 games · 64.8 rush yds/gm (league median 95.5)
Week 15: 91 allowed · league median 92.5

TEN24@

SF37

Final

TEN · 65% pass · -0.188 EPA/play

57% pass · 0.057 EPA/play · SF

TEN had allowed the 6th-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for SF.
through week 14 · 13 games · 164.4 rec yds/gm (league median 143.2)
Week 15: 186 allowed · league median 132

WAS29@

NYG21

Final

WAS · 53% pass · 0.007 EPA/play

54% pass · 0.008 EPA/play · NYG

NYG had allowed the 2nd-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for WAS.
through week 14 · 13 games · 125.3 rush yds/gm (league median 95.5)
Week 15: 102 allowed · league median 92.5
NYG had allowed the 4th-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for WAS.
through week 14 · 13 games · 165.5 rec yds/gm (league median 143.2)
Week 15: 140 allowed · league median 132
WAS had allowed the 5th-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for NYG.
through week 14 · 13 games · 111.5 rush yds/gm (league median 95.5)
Week 15: 83 allowed · league median 92.5
WAS had allowed the 7th-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for NYG.
through week 14 · 13 games · 163 rec yds/gm (league median 143.2)
Week 15: 111 allowed · league median 132
NYG had allowed the 8th-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for WAS.
through week 14 · 13 games · 45.8 rec yds/gm (league median 51.6)
Week 15: 55 allowed · league median 61

This is the whole product, on real football: context you can check, with its sample size attached, and no claim we haven’t measured. When the 2026 season starts, the same notes appear on the matchup pages — beside a line archive that records what the price did.

See this season’s matchups

Read this before the results

This is not a third backtest. Two pre-registered attempts to beat NFL game markets both found no edge. That budget is only spent by comparing a forecast to a price, and this replay never sees one.

Did the descriptions hold?

Week 15 alone

58.3%

28 of 48 statements

A single week is a few dozen statements — far too few to separate a real effect from one good or bad Sunday. It is shown beside the season figure, never instead of it.

All 14 weeks, 2025

54.6%

341 of 624 statements · 95% CI 50.7–58.5%

The interval clears 50, so the descriptions do carry week to week — but only just. A matchup note is a real tilt, not a reason to be confident.

How often each kind of statement holds

By claim

What a chip on a row is actually quoting. The classes are not equal, and until now the site showed one average for all of them.

“generous to WRs”

63/105 held · 95% CI 50.4–68.9

60%

“stingy against WRs”

57/107 held · 95% CI 43.9–62.4includes 50 — no measured edge

53.3%

“generous to TEs”

57/102 held · 95% CI 46.2–65.1includes 50 — no measured edge

55.9%

“stingy against TEs”

62/106 held · 95% CI 49–67.4includes 50 — no measured edge

58.5%

“generous to RBs”

48/100 held · 95% CI 38.5–57.7includes 50 — no measured edge

48%

“stingy against RBs”

54/104 held · 95% CI 42.4–61.3includes 50 — no measured edge

51.9%

By how strong the claim was

The calibration question: does a statement about the most extreme defense in the league hold up better than one about the eighth? Directionally yes — but read the intervals before believing it.

Top 3 in the league

135/234 held · 95% CI 51.3–63.8

57.7%

Ranked 4th–8th

206/390 held · 95% CI 47.9–57.7includes 50 — no measured edge

52.8%

The spread between our best and worst class is real: “generous to WRs” at 60% against “generous to RBs” at 48%. If you only trust one kind of matchup note here, trust the first.

Week by week — tap one to open it

Bars measured from 50%. Week 15 is open below — tap any bar to read that week in full. The default is week 6, one of the worst of the season, on purpose.

Every week-15 game

Each note is what the model would have said going in, with the sample size it rested on. the description still held that week · it did not · not scoreable (bye or no qualifying plays).

ARI20@

HOU40

Final

ARI · 66% pass · -0.024 EPA/play

59% pass · -0.011 EPA/play · HOU

ARI had allowed the 7th-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for HOU.
through week 14 · 13 games · 107.9 rush yds/gm (league median 95.5)
Week 15: 133 allowed · league median 92.5
HOU had allowed the 5th-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for ARI.
through week 14 · 13 games · 38.1 rec yds/gm (league median 51.6)
Week 15: 138 allowed · league median 61
HOU had allowed the 5th-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for ARI.
through week 14 · 13 games · 73.8 rush yds/gm (league median 95.5)
Week 15: 66 allowed · league median 92.5

ATL29@

TB28

Final

ATL · 55% pass · -0.041 EPA/play

57% pass · -0.027 EPA/play · TB

TB had allowed the 7th-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for ATL.
through week 14 · 13 games · 78 rush yds/gm (league median 95.5)
Week 15: 111 allowed · league median 92.5
ATL had allowed the 4th-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for TB.
through week 14 · 13 games · 37.8 rec yds/gm (league median 51.6)
Week 15: 6 allowed · league median 61

BAL24@

CIN0

Final

BAL · 52% pass · -0.019 EPA/play

67% pass · -0.033 EPA/play · CIN

CIN had allowed the 1st-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for BAL.
through week 14 · 13 games · 96.8 rec yds/gm (league median 51.6)
Week 15: 18 allowed · league median 61
CIN had allowed the 1st-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for BAL.
through week 14 · 13 games · 126.4 rush yds/gm (league median 95.5)
Week 15: 166 allowed · league median 92.5
BAL had allowed the 8th-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for CIN.
through week 14 · 13 games · 157.7 rec yds/gm (league median 143.2)
Week 15: 148 allowed · league median 132
CIN had allowed the 6th-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for BAL.
through week 14 · 13 games · 119.7 rec yds/gm (league median 143.2)
Week 15: 100 allowed · league median 132

BUF35@

NE31

Final

BUF · 52% pass · 0.134 EPA/play

55% pass · 0.109 EPA/play · NE

NE had allowed the 5th-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for BUF.
through week 14 · 12 games · 65.8 rec yds/gm (league median 51.6)
Week 15: 80 allowed · league median 61
BUF had allowed the 6th-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for NE.
through week 14 · 13 games · 108.8 rush yds/gm (league median 95.5)
Week 15: 198 allowed · league median 92.5
NE had allowed the 8th-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for BUF.
through week 14 · 13 games · 126.8 rec yds/gm (league median 143.2)
Week 15: 81 allowed · league median 132
NE had allowed the 2nd-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for BUF.
through week 14 · 13 games · 66.2 rush yds/gm (league median 95.5)
Week 15: 120 allowed · league median 92.5
BUF had allowed the 2nd-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for NE.
through week 14 · 13 games · 33.9 rec yds/gm (league median 51.6)
Week 15: 18 allowed · league median 61

CAR17@

NO20

Final

CAR · 55% pass · -0.031 EPA/play

59% pass · -0.129 EPA/play · NO

NO had allowed the 3rd-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for CAR.
through week 14 · 13 games · 112.9 rush yds/gm (league median 95.5)
Week 15: 78 allowed · league median 92.5
CAR had allowed the 7th-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for NO.
through week 14 · 13 games · 63.8 rec yds/gm (league median 51.6)
Week 15: 37 allowed · league median 61
NO had allowed the 7th-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for CAR.
through week 14 · 13 games · 120.8 rec yds/gm (league median 143.2)
Week 15: 131 allowed · league median 132

CLE3@

CHI31

Final

CLE · 60% pass · -0.180 EPA/play

54% pass · 0.065 EPA/play · CHI

CLE had allowed the 2nd-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for CHI.
through week 14 · 13 games · 109.2 rec yds/gm (league median 143.2)
Week 15: 153 allowed · league median 132

DET34@

LA41

Final

DET · 56% pass · 0.112 EPA/play

58% pass · 0.140 EPA/play · LA

DET had allowed the 5th-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for LA.
through week 14 · 13 games · 165.2 rec yds/gm (league median 143.2)
Week 15: 261 allowed · league median 132
LA had allowed the 8th-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for DET.
through week 14 · 13 games · 78.8 rush yds/gm (league median 95.5)
Week 15: 70 allowed · league median 92.5

GB26@

DEN34

Final

GB · 53% pass · 0.156 EPA/play

60% pass · 0.059 EPA/play · DEN

DEN had allowed the 8th-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for GB.
through week 14 · 13 games · 63.7 rec yds/gm (league median 51.6)
Week 15: 70 allowed · league median 61
GB had allowed the 7th-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for DEN.
through week 14 · 13 games · 45.5 rec yds/gm (league median 51.6)
Week 15: 12 allowed · league median 61
DEN had allowed the 4th-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for GB.
through week 14 · 13 games · 73.8 rush yds/gm (league median 95.5)
Week 15: 86 allowed · league median 92.5

IND16@

SEA18

Final

IND · 57% pass · 0.124 EPA/play

50% pass · 0.043 EPA/play · SEA

SEA had allowed the 2nd-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for IND.
through week 14 · 13 games · 71.8 rec yds/gm (league median 51.6)
Week 15: 19 allowed · league median 61
IND had allowed the 3rd-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for SEA.
through week 14 · 13 games · 167.2 rec yds/gm (league median 143.2)
Week 15: 233 allowed · league median 132
IND had allowed the 3rd-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for SEA.
through week 14 · 13 games · 68.6 rec yds/gm (league median 51.6)
Week 15: 36 allowed · league median 61
SEA had allowed the 3rd-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for IND.
through week 14 · 13 games · 70.5 rush yds/gm (league median 95.5)
Week 15: 102 allowed · league median 92.5
SEA had allowed the 1st-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for IND.
through week 14 · 13 games · 108.5 rec yds/gm (league median 143.2)
Week 15: 55 allowed · league median 132

LAC16@

KC13

Final

LAC · 58% pass · -0.012 EPA/play

60% pass · 0.111 EPA/play · KC

KC had allowed the 6th-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for LAC.
through week 14 · 13 games · 76 rush yds/gm (league median 95.5)
Week 15: 94 allowed · league median 92.5
LAC had allowed the 6th-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for KC.
through week 14 · 13 games · 43.4 rec yds/gm (league median 51.6)
Week 15: 70 allowed · league median 61
LAC had allowed the 5th-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for KC.
through week 14 · 13 games · 119.5 rec yds/gm (league median 143.2)
Week 15: 133 allowed · league median 132

LV0@

PHI31

Final

LV · 63% pass · -0.194 EPA/play

55% pass · 0.004 EPA/play · PHI

LV had allowed the 3rd-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for PHI.
through week 14 · 13 games · 37.5 rec yds/gm (league median 51.6)
Week 15: 74 allowed · league median 61
PHI had allowed the 1st-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for LV.
through week 14 · 13 games · 32.9 rec yds/gm (league median 51.6)
Week 15: 28 allowed · league median 61

MIA15@

PIT28

Final

MIA · 55% pass · 0.003 EPA/play

59% pass · 0.006 EPA/play · PIT

PIT had allowed the 2nd-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for MIA.
through week 14 · 13 games · 169.8 rec yds/gm (league median 143.2)
Week 15: 36 allowed · league median 132
MIA had allowed the 4th-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for PIT.
through week 14 · 13 games · 67 rec yds/gm (league median 51.6)
Week 15: 82 allowed · league median 61
MIA had allowed the 8th-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for PIT.
through week 14 · 13 games · 105.8 rush yds/gm (league median 95.5)
Week 15: 117 allowed · league median 92.5
MIA had allowed the 3rd-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for PIT.
through week 14 · 13 games · 113.2 rec yds/gm (league median 143.2)
Week 15: 81 allowed · league median 132

MIN34@

DAL26

Final

MIN · 61% pass · -0.139 EPA/play

61% pass · 0.102 EPA/play · DAL

DAL had allowed the 1st-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for MIN.
through week 14 · 13 games · 171.1 rec yds/gm (league median 143.2)
Week 15: 135 allowed · league median 132
MIN had allowed the 4th-fewest receiving yards to WRs — good news for DAL.
through week 14 · 13 games · 118.7 rec yds/gm (league median 143.2)
Week 15: 219 allowed · league median 132

NYJ20@

JAX48

Final

NYJ · 54% pass · -0.091 EPA/play

55% pass · -0.005 EPA/play · JAX

NYJ had allowed the 4th-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for JAX.
through week 14 · 13 games · 112.4 rush yds/gm (league median 95.5)
Week 15: 50 allowed · league median 92.5
JAX had allowed the 6th-most receiving yards to TEs — good news for NYJ.
through week 14 · 13 games · 65.1 rec yds/gm (league median 51.6)
Week 15: 13 allowed · league median 61
JAX had allowed the 1st-fewest rushing yards to RBs — good news for NYJ.
through week 14 · 13 games · 64.8 rush yds/gm (league median 95.5)
Week 15: 91 allowed · league median 92.5

TEN24@

SF37

Final

TEN · 65% pass · -0.188 EPA/play

57% pass · 0.057 EPA/play · SF

TEN had allowed the 6th-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for SF.
through week 14 · 13 games · 164.4 rec yds/gm (league median 143.2)
Week 15: 186 allowed · league median 132

WAS29@

NYG21

Final

WAS · 53% pass · 0.007 EPA/play

54% pass · 0.008 EPA/play · NYG

NYG had allowed the 2nd-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for WAS.
through week 14 · 13 games · 125.3 rush yds/gm (league median 95.5)
Week 15: 102 allowed · league median 92.5
NYG had allowed the 4th-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for WAS.
through week 14 · 13 games · 165.5 rec yds/gm (league median 143.2)
Week 15: 140 allowed · league median 132
WAS had allowed the 5th-most rushing yards to RBs — good news for NYG.
through week 14 · 13 games · 111.5 rush yds/gm (league median 95.5)
Week 15: 83 allowed · league median 92.5
WAS had allowed the 7th-most receiving yards to WRs — good news for NYG.
through week 14 · 13 games · 163 rec yds/gm (league median 143.2)
Week 15: 111 allowed · league median 132
NYG had allowed the 8th-fewest receiving yards to TEs — good news for WAS.
through week 14 · 13 games · 45.8 rec yds/gm (league median 51.6)
Week 15: 55 allowed · league median 61