The Line
Every game this week — open, move and close, appended and never edited
These are execution calls, not predictions. We have no measured edge on who covers — we looked twice, pre-registered, and didn't find one. What we can tell you is where the best number is, and when a half point sits on the right side of 3.
PIT @ CLEThu 8:15 PM ET
+1 vs closeside lost
0 vs closeside won
IND @ WSHSun 9:30 AM ET
+1 vs closeside won
0 vs closeside lost
+1 vs closeside won
ARI @ NYGSun 1:00 PM ET
-1 vs closeside won
+4 vs closeside lost
+1 vs closeside won
GB @ TBSun 1:00 PM ET
+2 vs closeside won
-1 vs closeside lost
0 vs closeside lost
NE @ BUFSun 1:00 PM ET
+1 vs closeside won
0 vs closeside lost
+0.5 vs closeside lost
NYJ @ CHISun 1:00 PM ET
0 vs closeside lost
+1 vs closeside won
TEN @ BALSun 1:00 PM ET
-1 vs closeside lost
+2 vs closeside won
DAL @ HOUSun 1:00 PM ET
+1 vs closeside won
0 vs closeside lost
LAR @ PHISun 1:00 PM ET
+1 vs closeside won
0 vs closeside lost
+1 vs closeside won
MIA @ MINSun 4:05 PM ET
-1 vs closeside lost
+2 vs closeside won
0 vs closeside lost
LAC @ SEASun 4:25 PM ET
+1 vs closeside lost
+1 vs closeside won
DEN @ SFSun 4:25 PM ET
+2 vs closeside lost
-1 vs closeside won
0 vs closeside won
DET @ CARSun 8:20 PM ET
+1 vs closeside won
0 vs closeside lost
ATL @ NOMon 8:15 PM ET
0 vs closeside won
+1 vs closeside lost
-1 vs closeside lost
Line value and beating the close are what these plays claim. The side record is shown because hiding it would make this not a ledger — but over a few dozen plays it is luck, not evidence, in either direction.
Every play we've published since 2026The line moved through 3, 7 or 10 — the margins games actually land on. Whatever was available on the other side of that number is gone.
0 vs closeside lost
+1 vs closeside lost
+1 vs closeside won
0 vs closeside won
-0.5 vs closeside lost
+1 vs closeside won
+0.5 vs closeside lost
+1.5 vs closeside won
Biggest move first — and a move means the book we follow actually repriced it.