The Line
Every game this week — open, move and close, appended and never edited
These are execution calls, not predictions. We have no measured edge on who covers — we looked twice, pre-registered, and didn't find one. What we can tell you is where the best number is, and when a half point sits on the right side of 3.
NE @ SEAWed 8:20 PM ET
+6 vs closeside void
0 vs closeside void
0 vs closeside push
SF @ LARThu 8:35 PM ET
+7 vs closeside void
-1 vs closeside void
CLE @ JAXSun 1:00 PM ET
0 vs closeside void
+30 vs closeside void
+1 vs closeside won
BUF @ HOUSun 1:00 PM ET
0 vs closeside void
+6 vs closeside void
0 vs closeside lost
BAL @ INDSun 1:00 PM ET
0 vs closeside won
+1 vs closeside lost
0 vs closeside lost
TB @ CINSun 1:00 PM ET
0 vs closeside won
+1 vs closeside lost
NO @ DETSun 1:00 PM ET
+2 vs closeside won
-1 vs closeside lost
+0.5 vs closeside lost
ATL @ PITSun 1:00 PM ET
-1 vs closeside lost
+2 vs closeside won
+3 vs closeside won
CHI @ CARSun 1:00 PM ET
+2 vs closeside won
-1 vs closeside lost
0 vs closeside lost
NYJ @ TENSun 1:00 PM ET
+1 vs closeside won
0 vs closeside lost
-1 vs closeside lost
GB @ MINSun 4:25 PM ET
-1 vs closeside lost
+4 vs closeside won
+2 vs closeside won
WSH @ PHISun 4:25 PM ET
-2 vs closeside lost
+3 vs closeside won
+1.5 vs closeside lost
ARI @ LACSun 4:25 PM ET
+1 vs closeside lost
0 vs closeside won
-1 vs closeside lost
MIA @ LVSun 4:25 PM ET
0 vs closeside won
+1 vs closeside won
DAL @ NYGSun 8:20 PM ET
0 vs closeside void
+6 vs closeside void
+0.5 vs closeside lost
DEN @ KCMon 8:15 PM ET
0 vs closeside won
+1 vs closeside lost
+0.5 vs closeside lost
Line value and beating the close are what these plays claim. The side record is shown because hiding it would make this not a ledger — but over a few dozen plays it is luck, not evidence, in either direction.
Every play we've published since 2026The line moved through 3, 7 or 10 — the margins games actually land on. Whatever was available on the other side of that number is gone.
+0.5 vs closeside won
0 vs closeside lost
+3 vs closeside won
+0.5 vs closeside won
0 vs closeside won
-2.5 vs closeside lost
+0.5 vs closeside won
+1.5 vs closeside won
-1 vs closeside lost
-0.5 vs closeside won
+2 vs closeside won
DraftKings has +10.5; the other side of 10 is +9.5. The final margin was exactly 10 in 390 of 6,967 games — 5.6%.
+1 vs closeside won
FanDuel has -9.5; the other side of 10 is -10.5. The final margin was exactly 10 in 390 of 6,967 games — 5.6%.
0 vs closeside lost
0 vs closeside won
0 vs closeside won
Biggest move first — and a move means the book we follow actually repriced it.
Opened here and stayed. Nothing to report is a finding too.