Miami DolphinsatNew England Patriots

Sunday, Jan 10, 12:00 AM ET

Opened

-10.5

First seen Oct 12

Now

-10.5

Unmoved

Total

42.5

Prices archived

1 spread · 1 total

0.5 points past 10

Nothing to shop yet

Only DraftKings quotes this game so far, so there is no second number to compare it against. Books further out post one at a time; this fills in as kickoff gets closer.

Head to head

Malik Willis · MIAQB Index componentsDrake Maye · NE

23 · F

Index

66 · B+

26.0

Attempts / gm

30.2

9.7%

Sacked

share of dropbacks

6.8%

56.2%

Completion

65.6%

6.5

Yards / att

8.1

268.4

Air yards / gm

277.2

-0.201

EPA / dropback

0.126

-7.7

CPOE

completion % over expected

+6.2

Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.

MIA skill corpswho they faceNE skill corps

137.6

Receivers

yds/gm allowed · vs NE / vs MIA

110.4

statements like this held next week 54.6%· CI 50.7–58.5

Malik Washington27.9% target share · 11 PPR last 4
Kevin Coleman Jr.13.2% target share · 3.6 PPR last 4
Chris Bell11.6% target share · 3.3 PPR last 4

WR statements like this held 53.3%· CI 43.9–62.4, no measured edge

QB Index · vs NE

Malik Willis

MIA · 5 games, 130 attempts

index

Volumeweight 0.40

27th of 34

26.0 attempts per game · team runs 52 plays at 50% pass · sacked on 9.7% of dropbacks

Efficiencyweight 0.35

30th of 34

6.5 yards per attempt · 56.2% completions · -0.201 EPA per dropback

Matchupweight 0.25

20th of 32

NE has allowed 6.9 yards per attempt across 5 games

≈ 153 yards

The life of this number: the DraftKings spread opened -10.5 on Mon, Oct 12, 89 days before kickoff and has not moved since.

What happened at this number

Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.

The spread

Favourites of 10.5 covered 66 of 131 games.

The range covers a coin flip.

They won outright in 110 of 131.

The total

Totals of 42.5 went over 116 of 221 times.

The range covers a coin flip.

How often a game ends on each margin

1,046 of 6,967

634 of 6,967

415 of 6,967

The spread, hour by hour

Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.

Only one price recorded so far — nothing to plot until it moves.

The total

Over line.

Only one price recorded so far — nothing to plot until it moves.

Player props

The books haven't posted player props for this game yet — normal this far out. The archive is already watching for them: the moment a price appears it is captured, kept forever, and becomes loggable here.

When they land you'll get the same book you get on the game lines — closing-line value, a letter grade and a good-bet verdict on every prop you log. No projections: our prop model failed its own pre-registered calibration gate, and we don't ship numbers that failed.

Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.

15.3% target share · 11.7 PPR last 4

DeMario Douglas14.7% target share · 8.2 PPR last 4

Mack Hollins13.3% target share · 9 PPR last 4

79.8

Backs

yds/gm allowed · vs NE / vs MIA

101.4

statements like this held next week 54.6%· CI 50.7–58.5

Ollie Gordon II36.4% of team carries · 12 PPR last 4
De'Von Achane26.4% of team carries · 8.2 PPR last 3
Jaylen Wright10.9% of team carries · 0.7 PPR last 4

Rhamondre Stevenson39.9% of team carries · 11.6 PPR last 4
TreVeyon Henderson29.4% of team carries · 6.6 PPR last 4
Corey Kiner14.0% of team carries · 2.2 PPR last 4

45.0

Tight ends

yds/gm allowed · vs NE / vs MIA

76.2

statements like this held next week 54.6%· CI 50.7–58.5

Greg Dulcich14.0% target share · 6.9 PPR last 4
Will Kacmarek4.7% target share · 1.4 PPR last 4

TE statements like this held 55.9%· CI 46.2–65.1, no measured edge

Hunter Henry12.7% target share · 8.3 PPR last 4
Eli Raridon6.0% target share · 6 PPR last 4

Where this ranking comes from

23 attempts × 6.5 yards per attempt

Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.

The market has his team at 16.0 points implied.

What he has actually cleared

175.5 yards in 3 of 5200.5 yards in 2 of 5225.5 yards in 0 of 5

The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.

QB Index · vs MIA

Drake Maye

NE · 5 games, 151 attempts

index

B+

Volumeweight 0.40

19th of 34

30.2 attempts per game · team runs 62 plays at 51% pass · sacked on 6.8% of dropbacks

Efficiencyweight 0.35

8th of 34

8.1 yards per attempt · 65.6% completions · 0.126 EPA per dropback

Matchupweight 0.25

7th of 32

MIA has allowed 7.8 yards per attempt across 5 games

≈ 238 yards29 attempts × 8.1 yards per attempt

Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.

The market has his team at 26.5 points implied.

What he has actually cleared

175.5 yards in 5 of 5200.5 yards in 3 of 5225.5 yards in 2 of 5

Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.