Only DraftKings quotes this game so far, so there is no second number to compare it against. Books further out post one at a time; this fills in as kickoff gets closer.
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
BUF
74.2%
MIA
25.8%
Teams the market priced at 70–75% won 527 of 722 games since 1999.That is almost exactly what the price claimed — this market prices accurately.
4.6%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 104.6%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Josh Allen · BUFQB Index componentsMalik Willis · MIA
69 · B+
Index
28 · F
29.8
Attempts / gm
25.8
7.0%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
9.6%
66.4%
Completion
QB Index · vs MIA
Josh Allen
BUF · 4 games, 119 attempts
69
index
B+
Volumeweight 0.40
18th of 30
29.8 attempts per game · team runs 57 plays at 52% pass · sacked on 7.0% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
5th of 30
8.7 yards per attempt · 66.4% completions · 0.265 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
4th of 32
MIA has allowed 8.3 yards per attempt across 4 games
≈ 241 yards
The life of this number: the DraftKings spread opened +7.5 on Mon, Oct 5, 90 days before kickoff and has not moved since.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 7.5 covered 132 of 275 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 209 of 275.
The total
Totals of 47.5 went over 104 of 217 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
Only one price recorded so far — nothing to plot until it moves.
The total
Over line.
Only one price recorded so far — nothing to plot until it moves.
Player props
The books haven't posted player props for this game yet — normal this far out. The archive is already watching for them: the moment a price appears it is captured, kept forever, and becomes loggable here.
When they land you'll get the same book you get on the game lines — closing-line value, a letter grade and a good-bet verdict on every prop you log. No projections: our prop model failed its own pre-registered calibration gate, and we don't ship numbers that failed.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
56.3%
8.7
Yards / att
6.9
291.0
Air yards / gm
256.5
0.265
EPA / dropback
-0.153
+5.8
CPOE
completion % over expected
-9.2
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 27.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
225.5 yards in 3 of 4250.5 yards in 2 of 4275.5 yards in 1 of 4
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs BUF
Malik Willis
MIA · 4 games, 103 attempts
28
index
F
Volumeweight 0.40
26th of 30
25.8 attempts per game · team runs 50 plays at 52% pass · sacked on 9.6% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
24th of 30
6.9 yards per attempt · 56.3% completions · -0.153 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
13th of 32
BUF has allowed 7.5 yards per attempt across 4 games
≈ 161 yards23 attempts × 6.9 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 20.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
175.5 yards in 3 of 4200.5 yards in 2 of 4225.5 yards in 0 of 4
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Khalil Shakir20.2% target share · 7.7 PPR last 4
DJ Moore17.5% target share · 9.1 PPR last 4
Keon Coleman14.9% target share · 10.4 PPR last 4
Malik Washington27.5% target share · 9.5 PPR last 4
Chris Bell12.7% target share · 3.5 PPR last 4
Caleb Douglas9.8% target share · 9.2 PPR last 2
James Cook68.6% of team carries · 16.6 PPR last 4
Ty Johnson1.0% of team carries · 6.1 PPR last 2
De'Von Achane35.8% of team carries · 8.2 PPR last 3
Ollie Gordon II30.5% of team carries · 11.1 PPR last 3
Dalton Kincaid16.7% target share · 11.5 PPR last 4
Dawson Knox5.3% target share · 3.8 PPR last 4
Greg Dulcich11.8% target share · 6 PPR last 3