Week 16
Los Angeles ChargersatMiami Dolphins
Sunday, Dec 27, 1:00 PM ET
Opened
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Now
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Unmoved
Total
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Prices archived
0
0 spread · 0 total
Head to head
Justin Herbert · LACQB Index componentsMalik Willis · MIA
38 · D
Index
28 · F28.6
Attempts / gm
26.010.6%
Sacked
9.7%share of dropbacks
59.4%
Completion
56.2%6.6
Yards / att
6.5240.6
Air yards / gm
268.4-0.193
EPA / dropback
-0.201-4.8
CPOE
-7.7completion % over expected
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
LAC skill corpswho they faceMIA skill corps
110.4
Receivers
132.0yds/gm allowed · vs MIA / vs LAC
WR statements like this held 53.3%· CI 43.9–62.4, no measured edge
Tre Harris18.1% target share · 8.1 PPR last 4
Quentin Johnston13.8% target share · 4.5 PPR last 4
Ladd McConkey12.3% target share · 9.1 PPR last 4
QB Index · vs MIA
Justin Herbert
LAC · 5 games, 143 attempts
38
index
D
Volumeweight 0.40
24th of 34
28.6 attempts per game · team runs 58 plays at 49% pass · sacked on 10.6% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
28th of 34
6.6 yards per attempt · 59.4% completions · -0.193 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
7th of 32
MIA has allowed 7.8 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 169 yards
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
No prices archived for this market yet.
The total
Over line.
No prices archived for this market yet.
Player props
The books haven't posted player props for this game yet — normal this far out. The archive is already watching for them: the moment a price appears it is captured, kept forever, and becomes loggable here.
When they land you'll get the same book you get on the game lines — closing-line value, a letter grade and a good-bet verdict on every prop you log. No projections: our prop model failed its own pre-registered calibration gate, and we don't ship numbers that failed.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
