Only DraftKings quotes this game so far, so there is no second number to compare it against. Books further out post one at a time; this fills in as kickoff gets closer.
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
DET
70.7%
MIA
29.3%
Teams the market priced at 70–75% won 527 of 722 games since 1999.That is almost exactly what the price claimed — this market prices accurately.
4.9%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 104.9%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Jared Goff · DETQB Index componentsMalik Willis · MIA
79 · A
Index
32 · F
38.2
Attempts / gm
26.0
5.4%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
9.7%
67.0%
Completion
QB Index · vs MIA
Jared Goff
DET · 5 games, 191 attempts
79
index
A
Volumeweight 0.40
6th of 34
38.2 attempts per game · team runs 64 plays at 60% pass · sacked on 5.4% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
10th of 34
7.8 yards per attempt · 67.0% completions · 0.323 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
7th of 32
MIA has allowed 7.8 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 281 yards
The life of this number: the DraftKings spread opened +6.5 on Mon, Aug 10, 90 days before kickoff and has not moved since.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 6.5 covered 151 of 325 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 234 of 325.
The total
Totals of 47.5 went over 104 of 217 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
Only one price recorded so far — nothing to plot until it moves.
The total
Over line.
Only one price recorded so far — nothing to plot until it moves.
Player props
The books haven't posted player props for this game yet — normal this far out. The archive is already watching for them: the moment a price appears it is captured, kept forever, and becomes loggable here.
When they land you'll get the same book you get on the game lines — closing-line value, a letter grade and a good-bet verdict on every prop you log. No projections: our prop model failed its own pre-registered calibration gate, and we don't ship numbers that failed.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
56.2%
7.8
Yards / att
6.5
302.4
Air yards / gm
268.4
0.323
EPA / dropback
-0.201
+1.7
CPOE
completion % over expected
-7.7
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 27.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
250.5 yards in 4 of 5275.5 yards in 2 of 5300.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs DET
Malik Willis
MIA · 5 games, 130 attempts
32
index
F
Volumeweight 0.40
27th of 34
26.0 attempts per game · team runs 52 plays at 50% pass · sacked on 9.7% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
30th of 34
6.5 yards per attempt · 56.2% completions · -0.201 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
9th of 32
DET has allowed 7.5 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 153 yards23 attempts × 6.5 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 20.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
175.5 yards in 3 of 5200.5 yards in 2 of 5225.5 yards in 0 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Amon-Ra St. Brown30.3% target share · 18.9 PPR last 4
Jameson Williams15.4% target share · 12.3 PPR last 4
Isaac TeSlaa10.1% target share · 6.9 PPR last 4
Malik Washington27.9% target share · 11 PPR last 4
Kevin Coleman Jr.13.2% target share · 3.6 PPR last 4
Chris Bell11.6% target share · 3.3 PPR last 4
Jahmyr Gibbs82.0% of team carries · 30 PPR last 4
Sione Vaki11.7% of team carries · 2.9 PPR last 4
Ollie Gordon II36.4% of team carries · 12 PPR last 4
De'Von Achane26.4% of team carries · 8.2 PPR last 3
Sam LaPorta19.7% target share · 16.7 PPR last 4
Brock Wright3.2% target share · 1.6 PPR last 4
Greg Dulcich14.0% target share · 6.9 PPR last 4
Will Kacmarek4.7% target share · 1.4 PPR last 4