Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
CIN
99.0%
MIA
1.0%
We hold too few games at this price to say what it has been worth historically, so we don't.
0.9%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 100.9%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Joe Burrow · CINQB Index componentsMalik Willis · MIA
77 · A
Index
28 · F
37.8
Attempts / gm
26.0
4.5%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
9.7%
71.4%
Completion
QB Index · vs MIA
Joe Burrow
CIN · 5 games, 189 attempts
77
index
A
Volumeweight 0.40
7th of 34
37.8 attempts per game · team runs 61 plays at 62% pass · sacked on 4.5% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
12th of 34
7.2 yards per attempt · 71.4% completions · 0.166 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
7th of 32
MIA has allowed 7.8 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 260 yards
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings spread · one of 2 books archived · 13 prices on record
Open
Opened +6 on Wed, Jul 29, 74 days before kickoff.
Move
12 reprices since, 19.5 points of movement in all. It closed +12.5 — the favourite is 6.5 points bigger than at the open. It ranged from +6 to +14.5 along the way, retracing 13 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Oct 11, 1 PM ET.
20% 5+ days out8% 5–2 days out3% Final two days69% Gameday
Biggest move
4.5 points at once — +7 to +11.5 on Sun, Oct 11, 1 PM ET.
Crossed 7
+6 to +8.5 on Tue, Sep 29, 8 PM ET — through 7 and away from it.
Crossed 10
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings total · one of 2 books archived · 12 prices on record
Open
Opened 49.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 74 days before kickoff.
Move
11 reprices since, 24 points of movement in all. It ended up exactly where it started. It ranged from 41.5 to 53.5 along the way, retracing 24 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Oct 11, 1 PM ET.
38% 5+ days out4% Final two days58% Gameday
Biggest move
7 points at once — 44.5 to 51.5 on Sun, Oct 11, 1 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 12.5 covered 30 of 46 games.
The range clears a coin flip.
They won outright in 42 of 46.
The total
Totals of 49.5 went over 53 of 126 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
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The total
Over line.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
Player props · 59
Boye Mafe
Sacks
0.5
over
-114
FanDuel
under
—
Bryan Cook Defensive
Interceptions
1.5
over
+9000
DraftKings
under
—
Chase Brown
Carries
15.5market 47% over
we project14.2/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-105
DraftKings
under
-132
DraftKings
Chase Brown
Receiving Yards
24.5market 50% over1.7pp between books — shop it
over
-112
FanDuel
under
-116
DraftKings
Chase Brown
Receptions
3.5market 57% over2.6pp between books — shop it
over
-138
FanDuel
under
+120
DraftKings
Chase Brown
Rushing Yards
48.5market 50% over
we project49.2/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Chop Robinson
Sacks
0.5
over
+130
FanDuel
under
—
Chris Bell
Receiving Yards
37.5market 49% over
we project18.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-110
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Chris Bell
Receptions
2.5market 56% over8.4pp between books — shop it
over
-108
FanDuel
under
+110
DraftKings
Chris Johnson Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+950
DraftKings
under
—
Dante Trader Jr. Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+1100
DraftKings
under
—
Daxton Hill Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+900
DraftKings
under
—
Dexter Lawrence II
Sacks
0.5
over
+124
FanDuel
under
—
DJ Turner II Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+800
DraftKings
under
—
Dohnte Meyers
Receiving Yards
0.5market 49% over
we project28.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-125
DraftKings
Dohnte Meyers
Receptions
2.5market 40% over7.5pp between books — shop it
over
+130
DraftKings
under
-128
FanDuel
Evan McPherson
Kicking Points
8.5market 50% over
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-115
DraftKings
Greg Dulcich
Receiving Yards
27.5market 50% over
we project31.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-112
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Greg Dulcich
Receptions
2.5market 58% over4.9pp between books — shop it
over
-136
FanDuel
under
+120
DraftKings
Ja'Marr Chase
Receiving Yards
76.5market 50% over
we project57.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Ja'Marr Chase
Receptions
6.5market 44% over5.7pp between books — shop it
over
+110
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Jacob Rodriguez
Sacks
0.5
over
+390
FanDuel
under
—
Jason Marshall Jr. Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+1100
DraftKings
under
—
Jaylen Wright
Rushing Yards
9.5market 52% over4.9pp between books — shop it
over
-105
DraftKings
under
-104
FanDuel
Joe Burrow
Completions
26.5market 51% over
over
-125
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Joe Burrow
Interceptions
0.5market 16% over
over
+500
DraftKings
under
-833
DraftKings
Joe Burrow
Pass Attempts
35.5market 50% over
we project37.8/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-120
DraftKings
under
-116
DraftKings
Joe Burrow
Passing TDs
1.5market 63% over
over
-200
DraftKings
under
+158
FanDuel
Joe Burrow
Passing Yards
256.5market 50% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Joe Burrow
Rushing Yards
12.5market 43% over
we project9.6/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
+115
DraftKings
under
-146
FanDuel
Jonathan Allen
Sacks
0.5
over
+134
FanDuel
under
—
Jordan Battle Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+550
DraftKings
under
—
Josh Uche
Sacks
0.5
over
+182
FanDuel
under
—
Julius Brents Defensive
Interceptions
0.5
over
+1100
DraftKings
under
—
Kevin Coleman Jr.
Receiving Yards
7.5market 32% over27.5pp between books — shop it
we project9.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
+295
DraftKings
under
-116
DraftKings
Kevin Coleman Jr.
Receptions
1.5market 57% over
over
-156
DraftKings
under
+118
FanDuel
Malik Washington
Receiving Yards
36.5market 50% over
we project52.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-112
FanDuel
Malik Washington
Receptions
4.5market 60% over11.3pp between books — shop it
over
-114
FanDuel
under
+130
DraftKings
Malik Willis
Carries
7.5market 44% over
we project5.4/gm± 0.7 typical error
over
+110
DraftKings
under
-152
DraftKings
Malik Willis
Completions
14.5market 50% over
over
-120
DraftKings
under
-116
DraftKings
Malik Willis
Interceptions
2.5market 30% over
over
+210
DraftKings
under
-294
DraftKings
Malik Willis
Pass Attempts
26.5market 54% over
we project26.0/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-141
DraftKings
under
+100
DraftKings
Malik Willis
Passing TDs
0.5market 47% over16.0pp between books — shop it
over
-105
DraftKings
under
+154
FanDuel
Malik Willis
Passing Yards
192.5market 50% over
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Malik Willis
Rushing Yards
33.5market 50% over2.3pp between books — shop it
we project37.2/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-108
FanDuel
Mike Gesicki
Receiving Yards
27.5market 50% over
we project39.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-112
FanDuel
Mike Gesicki
Receptions
2.5market 54% over
over
-130
FanDuel
under
+106
DraftKings
Myles Murphy
Sacks
0.5
over
+200
FanDuel
under
—
Ollie Gordon II
Carries
14.5market 54% over
we project11.8/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-141
DraftKings
under
+100
DraftKings
Ollie Gordon II
Receiving Yards
10.5market 49% over2.2pp between books — shop it
over
-110
DraftKings
under
-110
FanDuel
Ollie Gordon II
Receptions
1.5market 12% over51.7pp between books — shop it
over
+1500
DraftKings
under
+115
DraftKings
Ollie Gordon II
Rushing Yards
75.5market 50% over1.8pp between books — shop it
we project59.0/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-108
FanDuel
under
-116
DraftKings
Riley Patterson
Kicking Points
5.5market 55% over
over
-139
DraftKings
under
+107
DraftKings
Samaje Perine
Rushing Yards
14.5market 49% over
we project22.0/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-108
DraftKings
under
-118
DraftKings
Tee Higgins
Receiving Yards
33.5market 50% over1.7pp between books — shop it
we project84.6/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-112
FanDuel
under
-116
DraftKings
Tee Higgins
Receptions
3.5market 36% over21.2pp between books — shop it
over
+160
DraftKings
under
+112
FanDuel
Will Kacmarek
Receiving Yards
0.5market 35% over3.6pp between books — shop it
over
+165
DraftKings
under
-192
FanDuel
Will Kacmarek
Receptions
1.5market 18% over21.4pp between books — shop it
over
+550
DraftKings
under
-235
FanDuel
Zach Sieler
Sacks
0.5
over
+134
FanDuel
under
—
Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
56.2%
7.2
Yards / att
6.5
270.4
Air yards / gm
268.4
0.166
EPA / dropback
-0.201
+5.4
CPOE
completion % over expected
-7.7
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 31.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
225.5 yards in 3 of 5250.5 yards in 3 of 5275.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs CIN
Malik Willis
MIA · 5 games, 130 attempts
28
index
F
Volumeweight 0.40
27th of 34
26.0 attempts per game · team runs 52 plays at 50% pass · sacked on 9.7% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
30th of 34
6.5 yards per attempt · 56.2% completions · -0.201 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
13th of 32
CIN has allowed 7.3 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 153 yards23 attempts × 6.5 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 18.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
175.5 yards in 3 of 5200.5 yards in 2 of 5225.5 yards in 0 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
+7 to +11.5 on Sun, Oct 11, 1 PM ET — through 10 and away from it.
Held 7
It sat on 7 for 3 days, then left it on Wed, Oct 7, 2 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Tee Higgins23.1% target share · 16.6 PPR last 4
Ja'Marr Chase20.4% target share · 19.2 PPR last 4
Dohnte Meyers9.7% target share · 6.1 PPR last 4
Malik Washington27.9% target share · 11 PPR last 4
Kevin Coleman Jr.13.2% target share · 3.6 PPR last 4
Chris Bell11.6% target share · 3.3 PPR last 4
Chase Brown64.5% of team carries · 11.6 PPR last 4
Samaje Perine24.5% of team carries · 5.5 PPR last 4
Ollie Gordon II36.4% of team carries · 12 PPR last 4
De'Von Achane26.4% of team carries · 8.2 PPR last 3
Mike Gesicki9.1% target share · 13 PPR last 4
Tanner Hudson3.8% target share · 4.1 PPR last 4
Drew Sample3.2% target share · 2.5 PPR last 3
Greg Dulcich14.0% target share · 6.9 PPR last 4
