Across the 2 books we archive — which is a real limit on this, and we would rather say so than imply a survey of the market. Lines only: two books on the same number with different juice read as equal here.
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
MIA
9.7%
MIN
90.3%
Teams the market priced at 90–95% won 44 of 46 games since 1999.Slightly better than the price claimed, by 4.2 points.
6.0%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 106.0%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick. This one is heavier than a typical NFL moneyline.
Head to head
Malik Willis · MIAQB Index componentsKyler Murray · MIN
18 · F
Index
42 · D
26.0
Attempts / gm
25.3
9.7%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
8.2%
56.2%
Completion
QB Index · vs MIN
Malik Willis
MIA · 5 games, 130 attempts
18
index
F
Volumeweight 0.40
27th of 34
26.0 attempts per game · team runs 52 plays at 50% pass · sacked on 9.7% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
30th of 34
6.5 yards per attempt · 56.2% completions · -0.201 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
26th of 32
MIN has allowed 6.3 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 153 yards
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings spread · one of 2 books archived · 11 prices on record
Open
Opened -7.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 67 days before kickoff.
Move
10 reprices since, 14 points of movement in all. It closed -8.5 — the favourite is 1 point bigger than at the open. It ranged from -11.5 to -7.5 along the way, retracing 13 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Oct 4, 4 PM ET.
36% 5+ days out7% 5–2 days out4% Final two days53% Gameday
Biggest move
3 points at once — -7.5 to -10.5 on Thu, Sep 24, 2 AM ET.
Crossed 10
-7.5 to -10.5 on Thu, Sep 24, 2 AM ET — through 10 and away from it.
Crossed 10
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings total · one of 2 books archived · 8 prices on record
Open
Opened 43.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 67 days before kickoff.
Move
7 reprices since, 20 points of movement in all. It closed 31.5 — 12 points lower than the open. It ranged from 27.5 to 43.5 along the way, retracing 8 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Oct 4, 5 PM ET.
25% 5+ days out75% Gameday
Biggest move
7 points at once — 36.5 to 29.5 on Sun, Oct 4, 5 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 8.5 covered 46 of 94 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 73 of 94.
The total
Totals of 31.5 went over 0 of 2 times.
Only 2 games at this number — too few to read.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
The total
Over line.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
Player props · 46
Aaron Jones
Carries
18.5market 52% over
we project19.4/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-125
DraftKings
under
-105
DraftKings
Aaron Jones
Receiving Yards
16.5market 50% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Aaron Jones
Receptions
3.5market 41% over3.0pp between books — shop it
over
+131
DraftKings
under
-154
FanDuel
Aaron Jones
Rushing Yards
75.5market 50% over
we project82.0/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-112
FanDuel
Chris Bell
Receiving Yards
34.5market 50% over
we project18.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-114
DraftKings
Chris Bell
Receptions
2.5market 51% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-106
DraftKings
Greg Dulcich
Receiving Yards
8.5market 50% over
we project31.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-112
FanDuel
under
-118
FanDuel
Greg Dulcich
Receptions
2.5market 59% over
over
-167
DraftKings
under
+129
DraftKings
Jauan Jennings
Receiving Yards
8.5market 40% over3.7pp between books — shop it
over
+135
DraftKings
under
-154
FanDuel
Jauan Jennings
Receptions
2.5market 41% over6.5pp between books — shop it
over
+130
DraftKings
under
-132
FanDuel
Jaylen Wright
Carries
6.5market 47% over
over
-105
DraftKings
under
-132
DraftKings
Jaylen Wright
Receiving Yards
6.5market 49% over2.2pp between books — shop it
over
-108
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Jaylen Wright
Receptions
0.5market 45% over29.8pp between books — shop it
over
+140
DraftKings
under
+182
FanDuel
Jaylen Wright
Rushing Yards
14.5market 51% over1.6pp between books — shop it
over
-120
DraftKings
under
-104
FanDuel
Jordan Addison
Receiving Yards
62.5market 50% over
we project40.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Jordan Addison
Receptions
4.5market 46% over
over
+104
DraftKings
under
-133
DraftKings
Kevin Coleman Jr.
Receiving Yards
14.5market 51% over
we project9.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-108
DraftKings
Kevin Coleman Jr.
Receptions
1.5market 53% over4.2pp between books — shop it
over
-114
FanDuel
under
+100
DraftKings
Kyler Murray
Carries
5.5market 49% over
we project5.0/gm± 0.7 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-125
DraftKings
Kyler Murray
Completions
17.5market 50% over
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-116
DraftKings
Kyler Murray
Interceptions
0.5market 17% over
over
+450
DraftKings
under
-714
DraftKings
Kyler Murray
Pass Attempts
29.5market 47% over
we project25.3/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
+100
DraftKings
under
-135
DraftKings
Kyler Murray
Passing TDs
1.5market 40% over7.0pp between books — shop it
over
+135
DraftKings
under
-132
FanDuel
Kyler Murray
Passing Yards
169.5market 50% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Kyler Murray
Rushing Yards
19.5market 49% over1.5pp between books — shop it
we project23.3/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-112
FanDuel
Malik Washington
Receiving Yards
40.5market 50% over
we project52.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Malik Washington
Receptions
4.5market 56% over10.8pp between books — shop it
over
+102
FanDuel
under
+110
DraftKings
Malik Washington
Rushing Yards
3.5market 28% over22.0pp between books — shop it
over
+240
DraftKings
under
-125
FanDuel
Malik Willis
Carries
4.5market 40% over
we project5.4/gm± 0.7 typical error
over
+130
DraftKings
under
-182
DraftKings
Malik Willis
Completions
14.5market 47% over
over
-105
DraftKings
under
-132
DraftKings
Malik Willis
Interceptions
0.5market 38% over
over
+145
DraftKings
under
-196
DraftKings
Malik Willis
Pass Attempts
25.5market 49% over
we project26.0/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-125
DraftKings
Malik Willis
Passing TDs
0.5market 33% over20.8pp between books — shop it
over
+180
DraftKings
under
+100
FanDuel
Malik Willis
Passing Yards
169.5market 50% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-113
FanDuel
Malik Willis
Rushing Yards
19.5market 51% over
we project37.2/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-120
DraftKings
under
-106
FanDuel
Ollie Gordon II
Carries
8.5market 43% over
we project11.8/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
+115
DraftKings
under
-161
DraftKings
Ollie Gordon II
Receiving Yards
2.5market 50% over
over
-118
FanDuel
under
-112
FanDuel
Ollie Gordon II
Receptions
1.5market 38% over2.6pp between books — shop it
over
+149
DraftKings
under
-180
FanDuel
Ollie Gordon II
Rushing Yards
83.5market 51% over
we project59.0/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-120
DraftKings
under
-108
FanDuel
Ryan Miller
Receiving Yards
3.5market 50% over
over
-114
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Ryan Miller
Receptions
0.5market 42% over22.0pp between books — shop it
over
+190
DraftKings
under
+110
DraftKings
T.J. Hockenson
Receiving Yards
56.5market 51% over2.3pp between books — shop it
we project40.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
T.J. Hockenson
Receptions
4.5market 46% over2.0pp between books — shop it
over
+106
DraftKings
under
-130
FanDuel
Tai Felton
Receiving Yards
14.5market 40% over
over
+140
FanDuel
under
-182
DraftKings
Tai Felton
Receptions
1.5market 41% over12.1pp between books — shop it
over
+125
DraftKings
under
-102
FanDuel
Will Reichard
Kicking Points
8.5market 49% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-116
DraftKings
Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
68.3%
6.5
Yards / att
6.6
268.4
Air yards / gm
158.5
-0.201
EPA / dropback
-0.076
-7.7
CPOE
completion % over expected
+5.4
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 11.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
175.5 yards in 3 of 5200.5 yards in 2 of 5225.5 yards in 0 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs MIA
Kyler Murray
MIN · 4 games, 101 attempts
42
index
D
Volumeweight 0.40
30th of 34
25.3 attempts per game · team runs 58 plays at 48% pass · sacked on 8.2% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
18th of 34
6.6 yards per attempt · 68.3% completions · -0.076 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
7th of 32
MIA has allowed 7.8 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 169 yards26 attempts × 6.6 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 20.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
200.5 yards in 2 of 4225.5 yards in 2 of 4250.5 yards in 0 of 4
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
-9.5 to -10.5 on Sun, Oct 4, 6 PM ET — through 10 and away from it.
Crossed 10
-10.5 to -8.5 on Sun, Oct 4, 7 PM ET — back through 10.
Held 10
It sat on 10 for 44 hours, then left it on Sun, Oct 4, 4 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Malik Washington27.9% target share · 11 PPR last 4
Kevin Coleman Jr.13.2% target share · 3.6 PPR last 4
Chris Bell11.6% target share · 3.3 PPR last 4
Justin Jefferson19.2% target share · 15.9 PPR last 4
Jordan Addison16.9% target share · 8.3 PPR last 4
Myles Price5.4% target share · 3 PPR last 4
Ollie Gordon II36.4% of team carries · 12 PPR last 4
De'Von Achane26.4% of team carries · 8.2 PPR last 3
Jaylen Wright10.9% of team carries · 0.7 PPR last 4
Aaron Jones67.8% of team carries · 15.1 PPR last 4
Greg Dulcich14.0% target share · 6.9 PPR last 4
Will Kacmarek4.7% target share · 1.4 PPR last 4
T.J. Hockenson20.8% target share · 8.9 PPR last 4
Gavin Bartholomew5.4% target share · 4.9 PPR last 2
