Crossed 10 since opening1 point gap between books right now
Where the best number is
MIA+14.5FanDuel
KC-13.5DraftKings
Over30.5FanDuel
Under34.5DraftKings
Across the 2 books we archive — which is a real limit on this, and we would rather say so than imply a survey of the market. Lines only: two books on the same number with different juice read as equal here.
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
KC
99.0%
MIA
1.0%
We hold too few games at this price to say what it has been worth historically, so we don't.
0.9%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 100.9%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Patrick Mahomes · KCQB Index componentsMalik Willis · MIA
65 · B+
Index
16 · F
32.0
Attempts / gm
26.0
4.5%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
9.7%
64.1%
Completion
QB Index · vs MIA
Patrick Mahomes
KC · 4 games, 128 attempts
65
index
B+
Volumeweight 0.40
15th of 34
32.0 attempts per game · team runs 62 plays at 52% pass · sacked on 4.5% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
13th of 34
8.1 yards per attempt · 64.1% completions · 0.192 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
7th of 32
MIA has allowed 7.8 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 248 yards
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings spread · one of 2 books archived · 10 prices on record
Open
Opened +7.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 60 days before kickoff.
Move
9 reprices since, 29 points of movement in all. It closed +13.5 — the favourite is 6 points bigger than at the open. It ranged from +6.5 to +14.5 along the way, retracing 23 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Sep 27, 3 PM ET.
17% 5–2 days out2% Final two days81% Gameday
Biggest move
8 points at once — +14.5 to +6.5 on Sun, Sep 27, 3 PM ET.
Crossed 10
+7.5 to +10.5 on Thu, Sep 24, 2 AM ET — through 10 and away from it.
Crossed 7
+14.5 to +6.5 on Sun, Sep 27, 3 PM ET — back through 7.
The life of this number
Following the DraftKings total · one of 2 books archived · 8 prices on record
Open
Opened 44.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 60 days before kickoff.
Move
7 reprices since, 24 points of movement in all. It closed 34.5 — 10 points lower than the open. It ranged from 34.5 to 50.5 along the way, retracing 14 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Sep 27, 3 PM ET.
13% 5–2 days out87% Gameday
Biggest move
11 points at once — 48.5 to 37.5 on Sun, Sep 27, 3 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 13.5 covered 22 of 61 games.
The range clears a coin flip.
They won outright in 50 of 61.
The total
Totals of 34.5 went over 33 of 60 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
The total
Over line.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
Player props · 57
Chop Robinson
Sacks
0.5
over
+210
FanDuel
under
—
Chris Bell
Receiving Yards
19.5market 50% over
we project18.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Chris Bell
Receptions
1.5market 51% over3.2pp between books — shop it
over
-102
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Chris Jones
Sacks
0.5
over
-102
FanDuel
under
—
De'Von Achane
Carries
15.5market 52% over
we project11.3/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-125
DraftKings
under
-103
DraftKings
De'Von Achane
Receiving Yards
27.5market 51% over
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-110
DraftKings
De'Von Achane
Receptions
3.5market 51% over2.0pp between books — shop it
over
-120
DraftKings
under
-102
FanDuel
De'Von Achane
Rushing Yards
61.5market 50% over
we project42.3/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-114
DraftKings
Drue Tranquill
Sacks
0.5
over
+240
FanDuel
under
—
Emmett Johnson
Carries
5.5market 43% over
we project4.0/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
+115
DraftKings
under
-161
DraftKings
Emmett Johnson
Receiving Yards
4.5market 50% over1.9pp between books — shop it
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-106
FanDuel
Emmett Johnson
Receptions
1.5market 49% over
over
-102
FanDuel
under
-119
DraftKings
Emmett Johnson
Rushing Yards
24.5market 50% over1.5pp between books — shop it
we project14.0/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-112
FanDuel
Felix Anudike-Uzomah
Sacks
0.5
over
+182
FanDuel
under
—
George Karlaftis
Sacks
0.5
over
-172
FanDuel
under
—
Greg Dulcich
Receiving Yards
23.5market 50% over
we project31.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-118
FanDuel
under
-112
FanDuel
Greg Dulcich
Receptions
2.5market 59% over17.4pp between books — shop it
over
+118
FanDuel
under
+125
DraftKings
Harrison Butker
Kicking Points
8.5market 47% over
over
+100
DraftKings
under
-128
DraftKings
Jordyn Brooks
Sacks
0.5
over
+390
FanDuel
under
—
Josh Uche
Sacks
0.5
over
+310
FanDuel
under
—
Kenneth Walker III
Carries
17.5market 55% over
we project21.8/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-141
DraftKings
under
+105
DraftKings
Kenneth Walker III
Receiving Yards
22.5market 50% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Kenneth Walker III
Receptions
3.5market 44% over
over
+120
FanDuel
under
-149
DraftKings
Kenneth Walker III
Rushing Yards
84.5market 50% over
we project134.3/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-114
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Kevin Coleman Jr.
Receiving Yards
16.5market 51% over
we project9.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-110
DraftKings
Kevin Coleman Jr.
Receptions
1.5market 46% over
over
+110
FanDuel
under
-133
DraftKings
Malik Washington
Receiving Yards
37.5market 50% over
we project52.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Malik Washington
Receptions
3.5market 55% over
over
-139
DraftKings
under
+108
DraftKings
Malik Willis
Carries
5.5market 63% over
we project5.4/gm± 0.7 typical error
over
-345
DraftKings
under
+119
DraftKings
Malik Willis
Completions
20.5market 48% over
over
-105
DraftKings
under
-125
DraftKings
Malik Willis
Interceptions
0.5market 50% over
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-120
DraftKings
Malik Willis
Pass Attempts
33.5market 51% over
we project26.0/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-125
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Malik Willis
Passing TDs
0.5market 53% over11.8pp between books — shop it
over
-135
DraftKings
under
+168
FanDuel
Malik Willis
Passing Yards
176.5market 50% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Malik Willis
Rushing Yards
33.5market 49% over2.0pp between books — shop it
we project37.2/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-109
DraftKings
under
-112
FanDuel
Nick Bolton
Sacks
0.5
over
+205
FanDuel
under
—
Ollie Gordon II
Carries
15.5
we project11.8/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-250
DraftKings
under
—
Ollie Gordon II
Rushing Yards
8.5market 51% over
we project59.0/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-109
DraftKings
Patrick Mahomes
Carries
2.5market 51% over
we project3.0/gm± 0.7 typical error
over
-125
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Patrick Mahomes
Completions
22.5market 55% over
over
-147
DraftKings
under
+105
DraftKings
Patrick Mahomes
Interceptions
0.5market 23% over
over
+310
DraftKings
under
-455
DraftKings
Patrick Mahomes
Pass Attempts
27.5market 50% over
we project32.0/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-120
DraftKings
under
-116
DraftKings
Patrick Mahomes
Passing TDs
1.5market 61% over
over
-174
FanDuel
under
+141
DraftKings
Patrick Mahomes
Passing Yards
261.5market 50% over
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Patrick Mahomes
Rushing Yards
15.5market 50% over
we project10.3/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
R Mason Thomas
Sacks
0.5
over
+134
FanDuel
under
—
Rashee Rice
Receiving Yards
43.5market 50% over1.7pp between books — shop it
we project63.3/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-112
FanDuel
under
-116
DraftKings
Rashee Rice
Receptions
4.5market 45% over
over
+108
DraftKings
under
-139
DraftKings
Riley Patterson
Kicking Points
4.5market 53% over
over
-128
DraftKings
under
-101
DraftKings
Travis Kelce
Receiving Yards
73.5market 50% over
we project61.5/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-112
FanDuel
Travis Kelce
Receptions
4.5market 50% over1.6pp between books — shop it
over
-108
FanDuel
under
-112
DraftKings
Tyquan Thornton
Receiving Yards
19.5market 51% over
we project54.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-110
DraftKings
Tyquan Thornton
Receptions
1.5market 43% over
over
+121
DraftKings
under
-154
FanDuel
Xavier Worthy
Receiving Yards
34.5market 51% over
we project33.3/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-110
DraftKings
Xavier Worthy
Receptions
3.5market 49% over
over
-108
FanDuel
under
-119
DraftKings
Zach Sieler
Sacks
0.5
over
+178
FanDuel
under
—
Zeek Biggers
Sacks
0.5
over
+410
FanDuel
under
—
Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
56.2%
8.1
Yards / att
6.5
222.8
Air yards / gm
268.4
0.192
EPA / dropback
-0.201
+0.8
CPOE
completion % over expected
-7.7
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 24.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
225.5 yards in 2 of 4250.5 yards in 1 of 4275.5 yards in 1 of 4
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs KC
Malik Willis
MIA · 5 games, 130 attempts
16
index
F
Volumeweight 0.40
27th of 34
26.0 attempts per game · team runs 52 plays at 50% pass · sacked on 9.7% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
30th of 34
6.5 yards per attempt · 56.2% completions · -0.201 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
28th of 32
KC has allowed 6.2 yards per attempt across 4 games
≈ 153 yards23 attempts × 6.5 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 10.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
175.5 yards in 3 of 5200.5 yards in 2 of 5225.5 yards in 0 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
Crossed 10
+14.5 to +6.5 on Sun, Sep 27, 3 PM ET — back through 10.
5 key-number crossings in all.
Held 10
It sat on 10 for 41 hours, then left it on Sun, Sep 27, 1 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Xavier Worthy18.5% target share · 8.3 PPR last 4
Rashee Rice14.3% target share · 12.7 PPR last 3
Tyquan Thornton12.6% target share · 11.2 PPR last 4
Malik Washington27.9% target share · 11 PPR last 4
Kevin Coleman Jr.13.2% target share · 3.6 PPR last 4
Chris Bell11.6% target share · 3.3 PPR last 4
Kenneth Walker III78.4% of team carries · 27.5 PPR last 4
Emmett Johnson14.4% of team carries · 4.5 PPR last 4
Ollie Gordon II36.4% of team carries · 12 PPR last 4
De'Von Achane26.4% of team carries · 8.2 PPR last 3
Travis Kelce18.5% target share · 13.2 PPR last 4
Noah Gray6.7% target share · 3 PPR last 4
Greg Dulcich14.0% target share · 6.9 PPR last 4
Will Kacmarek4.7% target share · 1.4 PPR last 4