Sitting on 3 — the most valuable number it can hold
Where the best number is
LV-3DraftKings
MIA+3DraftKings
Over39.5FanDuel
Under40.5DraftKings
Across the 2 books we archive — which is a real limit on this, and we would rather say so than imply a survey of the market. Lines only: two books on the same number with different juice read as equal here.
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
MIA
40.3%
LV
59.7%
Teams the market priced at 55–60% won 493 of 879 games since 1999.Slightly worse than the price claimed, by 1.4 points.
4.1%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 104.1%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Malik Willis · MIAQB Index componentsKirk Cousins · LV
35 · F
Index
69 · B+
26.0
Attempts / gm
34.4
9.7%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
4.4%
56.2%
Completion
QB Index · vs LV
Malik Willis
MIA · 5 games, 130 attempts
35
index
F
Volumeweight 0.40
27th of 34
26.0 attempts per game · team runs 52 plays at 50% pass · sacked on 9.7% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
30th of 34
6.5 yards per attempt · 56.2% completions · -0.201 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
5th of 32
LV has allowed 7.9 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 153 yards
The life of this number
Following the FanDuel spread · one of 2 books archived · 2 prices on record
Open
Opened -3.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 46 days before kickoff.
Move
One reprice since, 0.5 points of movement in all. It closed -3 — the favourite is 0.5 points smaller than at the open.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Wed, Sep 9, 8 PM ET.
100% 5–2 days out
Biggest move
0.5 points at once — -3.5 to -3 on Wed, Sep 9, 8 PM ET.
Held 3
It closed on 3, having held it for 4 days.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
The life of this number
Following the FanDuel total · one of 2 books archived · 2 prices on record
Open
Opened 40.5 on Wed, Jul 29, 46 days before kickoff.
Move
One reprice since, 1 point of movement in all. It closed 39.5 — 1 point lower than the open.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Wed, Sep 9, 8 PM ET.
100% 5–2 days out
Biggest move
1 point at once — 40.5 to 39.5 on Wed, Sep 9, 8 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 3 covered 481 of 1,010 games.
The range covers a coin flip. 102 pushed and are excluded — at whole numbers that matters more than it sounds.
They won outright in 648 of 1,112.
The total
Totals of 39.5 went over 82 of 171 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
The total
Over line.
FanDuelDraftKings
Hover or drag to replay
Player props · 45
Ashton Jeanty
Carries
14.5market 47% over
we project17.6/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
+101
DraftKings
under
-130
DraftKings
Ashton Jeanty
Receiving Yards
17.5market 50% over
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Ashton Jeanty
Receptions
3.5market 46% over
over
+104
DraftKings
under
-133
DraftKings
Ashton Jeanty
Rushing Yards
57.5market 50% over
we project58.2/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Brock Bowers
Receiving Yards
63.5market 50% over
we project104.0/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
Brock Bowers
Receptions
5.5market 56% over
over
-147
DraftKings
under
+114
DraftKings
Caleb Douglas
Receiving Yards
27.5market 50% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Caleb Douglas
Receptions
2.5market 43% over1.8pp between books — shop it
over
+130
FanDuel
under
-156
DraftKings
Chop Robinson
Sacks
0.5
over
+198
FanDuel
under
—
Chris Bell
Receiving Yards
17.5market 51% over
we project18.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-110
DraftKings
Chris Bell
Receptions
1.5market 57% over
over
-156
DraftKings
under
+121
DraftKings
De'Von Achane
Carries
15.5market 48% over
we project11.3/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-105
DraftKings
under
-122
DraftKings
De'Von Achane
Receiving Yards
27.5market 50% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
De'Von Achane
Receptions
4.5market 44% over
over
+122
FanDuel
under
-147
DraftKings
De'Von Achane
Rushing Yards
68.5market 50% over
we project42.3/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Greg Dulcich
Receiving Yards
26.5market 49% over
we project31.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-110
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Greg Dulcich
Receptions
2.5market 48% over2.5pp between books — shop it
over
-103
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Jack Bech
Receiving Yards
18.5market 49% over
over
-110
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Jack Bech
Receptions
1.5market 57% over
over
-148
FanDuel
under
+122
DraftKings
Jacob Rodriguez
Sacks
0.5
over
+270
FanDuel
under
—
Jalen Nailor
Receiving Yards
37.5market 50% over
we project17.3/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Jalen Nailor
Receptions
3.5market 43% over
over
+118
DraftKings
under
-152
DraftKings
Jalen Tolbert
Receiving Yards
11.5market 51% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-108
DraftKings
Jalen Tolbert
Receptions
1.5market 38% over1.7pp between books — shop it
over
+150
DraftKings
under
-188
FanDuel
Kirk Cousins
Completions
19.5market 52% over
over
-123
DraftKings
under
-104
DraftKings
Kirk Cousins
Interceptions
0.5market 47% over
over
-101
DraftKings
under
-127
DraftKings
Kirk Cousins
Passing Yards
207.5market 50% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-113
FanDuel
Kirk Cousins
Rushing Yards
0.5market 44% over
we project-0.4/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
+122
FanDuel
under
-145
DraftKings
Malcolm Koonce
Sacks
0.5
over
+265
FanDuel
under
—
Malik Washington
Receiving Yards
27.5market 50% over
we project52.4/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Malik Washington
Receptions
2.5market 59% over
over
-158
FanDuel
under
+128
DraftKings
Malik Willis
Carries
7.5market 46% over
we project5.4/gm± 0.7 typical error
over
+105
DraftKings
under
-135
DraftKings
Malik Willis
Completions
17.5market 48% over
over
-105
DraftKings
under
-123
DraftKings
Malik Willis
Interceptions
0.5market 52% over
over
-125
DraftKings
under
-103
DraftKings
Malik Willis
Passing Yards
179.5market 50% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Malik Willis
Rushing Yards
39.5market 51% over
we project37.2/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-110
DraftKings
Matt Gay
Kicking Points
7.5market 46% over
over
+106
DraftKings
under
-135
DraftKings
Maxx Crosby
Sacks
0.5
over
-114
FanDuel
under
—
Michael Mayer
Receiving Yards
17.5market 51% over
we project34.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-108
DraftKings
Michael Mayer
Receptions
4.5market 50% over1.7pp between books — shop it
over
-114
DraftKings
under
-108
FanDuel
Mike Washington Jr.
Carries
7.5market 50% over
we project5.0/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-115
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Mike Washington Jr.
Rushing Yards
27.5market 50% over
we project25.0/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-113
FanDuel
Riley Patterson
Kicking Points
6.5market 46% over
over
+107
DraftKings
under
-137
DraftKings
Tre Tucker
Receiving Yards
40.5market 49% over
we project54.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-110
DraftKings
under
-114
FanDuel
Tre Tucker
Receptions
4.5market 44% over
over
+115
DraftKings
under
-147
DraftKings
Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
65.1%
6.5
Yards / att
7.4
268.4
Air yards / gm
282.0
-0.201
EPA / dropback
0.191
-7.7
CPOE
completion % over expected
+1.9
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 18.3 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
175.5 yards in 3 of 5200.5 yards in 2 of 5225.5 yards in 0 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs MIA
Kirk Cousins
LV · 5 games, 172 attempts
69
index
B+
Volumeweight 0.40
12th of 34
34.4 attempts per game · team runs 63 plays at 57% pass · sacked on 4.4% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
13th of 34
7.4 yards per attempt · 65.1% completions · 0.191 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
7th of 32
MIA has allowed 7.8 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 254 yards34 attempts × 7.4 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 21.3 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
225.5 yards in 4 of 5250.5 yards in 2 of 5275.5 yards in 1 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
This line sits on 3, which was the exact final margin in 1,046 of 6,967 games.
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Malik Washington27.9% target share · 11 PPR last 4
Kevin Coleman Jr.13.2% target share · 3.6 PPR last 4
Chris Bell11.6% target share · 3.3 PPR last 4
Tre Tucker16.1% target share · 11.8 PPR last 4
Cody White8.6% target share · 9.4 PPR last 4
Jalen Nailor6.3% target share · 3.4 PPR last 3
Ollie Gordon II36.4% of team carries · 12 PPR last 4
De'Von Achane26.4% of team carries · 8.2 PPR last 3
Jaylen Wright10.9% of team carries · 0.7 PPR last 4
Ashton Jeanty71.0% of team carries · 13 PPR last 4
Greg Dulcich14.0% target share · 6.9 PPR last 4
Will Kacmarek4.7% target share · 1.4 PPR last 4
Brock Bowers19.5% target share · 23.7 PPR last 3
Michael Mayer14.4% target share · 8.7 PPR last 4
