The Draft Room quotes one probability: the chance a player is still on the board when you pick again. It is the rarest kind of forecast we make, because it settles in minutes rather than a season — we say it, the draft continues, and we find out. This page is that scorecard, and it is built from the room's own resolved predictions.
Brier is the standard scalar for probability forecasts — squared error between what we said and what happened. Lower is better; 0.250is what you would score by saying “50%” to everything, so anything at or above that means the numbers carry no information.
| We said | Mean claim | Actually happened | 95% interval | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–20% | 4% | 1% | 0% – 3% | 461 |
| 20–40% | 29% | 14% | 8% – 24% | 71 |
| 40–60% | — | not enough yet | — | 20 |
| 60–80% | — | not enough yet | — | 14 |
| 80–100% | 93% | 86% | 71% – 94% | 35 |
A bucket reads green when its 95% interval contains what we claimed — that is, when we are not measurably wrong. Amber means the claim sits outside the interval and the number needs fixing, not defending. Buckets under 25 outcomes are left blank rather than drawn as a point: a reliability curve off a handful of results is a horoscope.
When the room shows a percentage, it remembers the claim. When your draft reaches that pick, it records whether the player was still there. The prediction is never taken on trust — the server re-reads that player's archived ADP and spread and recomputes the probability itself, so the number being scored is reproducible by anyone with the archive.
The outcomeis a different matter, and this is the honest weakness: the Draft Room is logged-out and its state lives in your browser, so “was he still available” is reported by the client. There is no leaderboard, no ranking and no money attached, so nobody has a reason to fake it — but that is an argument about incentives, not a guarantee, and you should read the table with it in mind.
We publish our failures elsewhere too — every model this project has killed, and the figure that killed it, is on /receipts.