Across the 2 books we archive — which is a real limit on this, and we would rather say so than imply a survey of the market. Lines only: two books on the same number with different juice read as equal here.
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
DEN
8.6%
SF
91.4%
Teams the market priced at 90–95% won 44 of 46 games since 1999.Slightly better than the price claimed, by 4.2 points.
5.9%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 105.9%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Bo Nix · DENQB Index componentsBrock Purdy · SF
29 · F
Index
50 · C
31.5
Attempts / gm
28.4
4.1%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
2.1%
60.3%
Completion
QB Index · vs SF
Bo Nix
DEN · 6 games, 189 attempts
29
index
F
Volumeweight 0.40
16th of 34
31.5 attempts per game · team runs 56 plays at 56% pass · sacked on 4.1% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
29th of 34
5.6 yards per attempt · 60.3% completions · -0.076 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
30th of 32
SF has allowed 6.1 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 168 yards
The life of this number
Following the FanDuel spread · one of 2 books archived · 6 prices on record
Open
Opened -3.5 on Thu, Sep 24, 11 days before kickoff.
Move
5 reprices since, 14 points of movement in all. It closed -7.5 — the favourite is 4 points bigger than at the open. It ranged from -7.5 to +1.5 along the way, retracing 10 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Oct 4, 6 PM ET.
7% 5+ days out93% Gameday
Biggest move
5 points at once — -2.5 to -7.5 on Sun, Oct 4, 7 PM ET.
Crossed 3
-2.5 to -7.5 on Sun, Oct 4, 7 PM ET — through 3 and away from it.
Crossed 7
-2.5 to -7.5 on Sun, Oct 4, 7 PM ET — through 7 and away from it.
Held 3
The life of this number
Following the FanDuel total · one of 2 books archived · 5 prices on record
Open
Opened 46.5 on Thu, Sep 24, 11 days before kickoff.
Move
4 reprices since, 21 points of movement in all. It closed 29.5 — 17 points lower than the open. It ranged from 29.5 to 48.5 along the way, retracing 4 points of that movement.
When it moved
Half of the movement was over by Sun, Oct 4, 5 PM ET.
5% 5–2 days out5% Final two days90% Gameday
Biggest move
12 points at once — 48.5 to 36.5 on Sun, Oct 4, 5 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 7.5 covered 132 of 275 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 209 of 275.
No history held for a total of 29.5 — not rounded to a nearby number.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
10
390 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
The total
Over line.
DraftKingsFanDuel
Hover or drag to replay
Player props · 59
Adam Trautman
Receiving Yards
4.5market 50% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Adam Trautman
Receptions
0.5market 38% over23.7pp between books — shop it
over
+145
DraftKings
under
+136
FanDuel
Bo Nix
Carries
3.5market 47% over
we project3.6/gm± 0.7 typical error
over
+100
DraftKings
under
-135
DraftKings
Bo Nix
Completions
24.5market 53% over
over
-132
DraftKings
under
-105
DraftKings
Bo Nix
Interceptions
0.5market 34% over
over
+170
DraftKings
under
-238
DraftKings
Bo Nix
Pass Attempts
41.5market 50% over
we project32.4/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-116
DraftKings
Bo Nix
Passing TDs
1.5market 48% over2.0pp between books — shop it
over
+104
FanDuel
under
-123
DraftKings
Bo Nix
Passing Yards
225.5market 50% over
over
-112
DraftKings
under
-112
DraftKings
Bo Nix
Rushing Yards
10.5market 50% over
we project7.0/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-112
FanDuel
Brock Purdy
Carries
4.5market 59% over
we project5.0/gm± 0.7 typical error
over
-172
DraftKings
under
+125
DraftKings
Brock Purdy
Completions
19.5market 55% over
over
-147
DraftKings
under
+105
DraftKings
Brock Purdy
Interceptions
0.5market 32% over
over
+195
DraftKings
under
-270
DraftKings
Brock Purdy
Pass Attempts
32.5market 46% over
we project28.4/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
+100
DraftKings
under
-141
DraftKings
Brock Purdy
Passing TDs
1.5market 16% over44.1pp between books — shop it
over
+650
DraftKings
under
+104
FanDuel
Brock Purdy
Passing Yards
233.5market 50% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Brock Purdy
Rushing Yards
16.5market 51% over
we project25.6/gm± 4.9 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-108
DraftKings
Christian McCaffrey
Carries
15.5market 51% over
we project12.2/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
-120
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Christian McCaffrey
Receiving Yards
39.5market 12% over45.9pp between books — shop it
over
+1300
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Christian McCaffrey
Receptions
4.5market 7% over53.6pp between books — shop it
over
+2200
DraftKings
under
+104
FanDuel
Christian McCaffrey
Rushing Yards
65.5market 50% over
we project57.2/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-114
DraftKings
under
-111
DraftKings
Courtland Sutton
Receiving Yards
38.5market 50% over
we project20.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Courtland Sutton
Receptions
3.5market 45% over
over
+114
FanDuel
under
-141
DraftKings
Deebo Samuel
Receiving Yards
34.5market 49% over
we project41.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-110
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Deebo Samuel
Receptions
3.5market 50% over7.8pp between books — shop it
over
+118
FanDuel
under
-120
DraftKings
Dondrea Tillman
Sacks
0.5
over
+470
FanDuel
under
—
Eddy Pineiro
Kicking Points
7.5market 48% over
over
-105
DraftKings
under
-122
DraftKings
Evan Engram
Receiving Yards
0.5market 42% over4.1pp between books — shop it
we project24.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
+120
DraftKings
under
-136
FanDuel
Evan Engram
Receptions
2.5market 44% over1.5pp between books — shop it
over
+117
DraftKings
under
-146
FanDuel
Fred Warner
Sacks
0.5
over
+430
FanDuel
under
—
George Kittle
Receiving Yards
53.5market 50% over
we project53.6/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-114
FanDuel
under
-114
FanDuel
George Kittle
Receptions
4.5market 15% over49.2pp between books — shop it
over
+850
DraftKings
under
+112
FanDuel
Gracen Halton
Sacks
0.5
over
+400
FanDuel
under
—
J.K. Dobbins
Carries
9.5market 45% over
we project12.8/gm± 3.0 typical error
over
+105
DraftKings
under
-141
DraftKings
J.K. Dobbins
Rushing Yards
59.5market 50% over
we project45.8/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-111
DraftKings
Jaylen Waddle
Receiving Yards
42.5market 50% over
we project40.8/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-112
FanDuel
Jaylen Waddle
Receptions
4.5market 35% over14.4pp between books — shop it
over
+170
DraftKings
under
-125
FanDuel
Jonah Elliss
Sacks
0.5
over
+310
FanDuel
under
—
Justin Strnad
Sacks
0.5
over
+520
FanDuel
under
—
Kaelon Black
Rushing Yards
20.5market 50% over
we project27.2/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-113
FanDuel
Keion White
Sacks
0.5
over
+200
FanDuel
under
—
Kyle Juszczyk
Receiving Yards
12.5market 45% over1.6pp between books — shop it
over
+112
FanDuel
under
-141
DraftKings
Kyle Juszczyk
Receptions
1.5market 49% over12.3pp between books — shop it
over
+148
FanDuel
under
-120
DraftKings
Malcolm Roach
Sacks
0.5
over
+410
FanDuel
under
—
Matthew Judon
Sacks
0.5
over
+350
FanDuel
under
—
Mike Evans
Receiving Yards
76.5
we project65.2/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
+240
DraftKings
under
—
Mike Evans
Receptions
3.5market 63% over32.0pp between books — shop it
over
-122
FanDuel
under
-108
DraftKings
Nik Bonitto
Sacks
0.5
over
-102
FanDuel
under
—
Osa Odighizuwa
Sacks
0.5
over
+200
FanDuel
under
—
Pat Bryant
Receiving Yards
14.5market 50% over
we project33.3/gm± 12.5 typical error
over
-116
DraftKings
under
-108
FanDuel
Pat Bryant
Receptions
2.5market 34% over9.5pp between books — shop it
over
+175
DraftKings
under
-158
FanDuel
Que Robinson
Sacks
0.5
over
+550
FanDuel
under
—
RJ Harvey
Receiving Yards
21.5market 51% over
over
-113
FanDuel
under
-110
DraftKings
RJ Harvey
Receptions
3.5market 48% over1.7pp between books — shop it
over
+102
FanDuel
under
-122
DraftKings
RJ Harvey
Rushing Yards
15.5market 50% over
we project14.0/gm± 15.2 typical error
over
-111
DraftKings
under
-113
FanDuel
Romello Height
Sacks
0.5
over
+225
FanDuel
under
—
Troy Franklin
Receiving Yards
0.5market 38% over5.5pp between books — shop it
over
+145
DraftKings
under
-154
FanDuel
Troy Franklin
Receptions
0.5market 39% over19.9pp between books — shop it
over
+140
DraftKings
under
+120
FanDuel
Wil Lutz
Kicking Points
6.5market 53% over
over
-130
DraftKings
under
+101
DraftKings
Zach Allen
Sacks
0.5
over
+174
FanDuel
under
—
Every number here is a price we observed or arithmetic on prices we observed. “Market %” is the book's own two-sided price with the vig removed — not a forecast. We publish no prop projection: the model failed its pre-registered calibration gate on 2026-07-31, and a number that failed its own test doesn't go on the site.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
69.0%
5.6
Yards / att
8.4
154.8
Air yards / gm
220.6
-0.076
EPA / dropback
0.397
-2.1
CPOE
completion % over expected
+6.0
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 11.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
150.5 yards in 3 of 6175.5 yards in 3 of 6200.5 yards in 2 of 6
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs DEN
Brock Purdy
SF · 5 games, 142 attempts
50
index
C
Volumeweight 0.40
25th of 34
28.4 attempts per game · team runs 56 plays at 51% pass · sacked on 2.1% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
4th of 34
8.4 yards per attempt · 69.0% completions · 0.397 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
24th of 32
DEN has allowed 6.4 yards per attempt across 6 games
≈ 234 yards28 attempts × 8.4 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 18.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
200.5 yards in 4 of 5225.5 yards in 2 of 5250.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
It sat on 3 for 2 days, then left it on Sun, Sep 27, 8 PM ET.
Every sentence above is arithmetic on prices we recorded and the times we recorded them. Nothing here says where this number goes next.
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Jaylen Waddle22.5% target share · 8 PPR last 4
Courtland Sutton16.2% target share · 5.7 PPR last 4
Pat Bryant7.5% target share · 8 PPR last 4
Mike Evans25.4% target share · 14.9 PPR last 4
Deebo Samuel Sr.14.5% target share · 10.6 PPR last 4
Demarcus Robinson4.3% target share · 9.7 PPR last 2
J.K. Dobbins57.0% of team carries · 10.6 PPR last 4
RJ Harvey14.8% of team carries · 11.3 PPR last 4
Jonah Coleman7.0% of team carries · 7.4 PPR last 2
Christian McCaffrey47.7% of team carries · 19.4 PPR last 4
Evan Engram11.0% target share · 3.6 PPR last 4
Nate Adkins2.9% target share · 6.9 PPR last 3
George Kittle20.3% target share · 17.2 PPR last 4