Sitting on 3 — the most valuable number it can hold
Nothing to shop yet
Only DraftKings quotes this game so far, so there is no second number to compare it against. Books further out post one at a time; this fills in as kickoff gets closer.
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
PHI
58.4%
NYG
41.6%
Teams the market priced at 55–60% won 493 of 879 games since 1999.Slightly worse than the price claimed, by 1.4 points.
4.4%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 104.4%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Jalen Hurts · PHIQB Index componentsJameis Winston · NYG
34 · F
Index
43 · D
30.8
Attempts / gm
33.0
7.8%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
7.7%
57.8%
QB Index · vs NYG
Jalen Hurts
PHI · 5 games, 154 attempts
34
index
F
Volumeweight 0.40
18th of 34
30.8 attempts per game · team runs 55 plays at 56% pass · sacked on 7.8% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
27th of 34
6.1 yards per attempt · 57.8% completions · -0.058 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
23rd of 32
NYG has allowed 6.5 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 173 yards
The life of this number: the DraftKings spread opened +3 on Mon, Oct 12, 89 days before kickoff and has not moved since — 6 days sitting on 3.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 3 covered 481 of 1,010 games.
The range covers a coin flip. 102 pushed and are excluded — at whole numbers that matters more than it sounds.
They won outright in 648 of 1,112.
The total
Totals of 41.5 went over 126 of 264 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
Only one price recorded so far — nothing to plot until it moves.
The total
Over line.
Only one price recorded so far — nothing to plot until it moves.
Player props
The books haven't posted player props for this game yet — normal this far out. The archive is already watching for them: the moment a price appears it is captured, kept forever, and becomes loggable here.
When they land you'll get the same book you get on the game lines — closing-line value, a letter grade and a good-bet verdict on every prop you log. No projections: our prop model failed its own pre-registered calibration gate, and we don't ship numbers that failed.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
Completion
57.6%
6.1
Yards / att
6.1
231.8
Air yards / gm
317.5
-0.058
EPA / dropback
-0.057
-2.5
CPOE
completion % over expected
-7.3
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 22.3 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
175.5 yards in 3 of 5200.5 yards in 3 of 5225.5 yards in 1 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs PHI
Jameis Winston
NYG · 4 games, 132 attempts
43
index
D
Volumeweight 0.40
13th of 34
33.0 attempts per game · team runs 63 plays at 53% pass · sacked on 7.7% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
28th of 34
6.1 yards per attempt · 57.6% completions · -0.057 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
18th of 32
PHI has allowed 7.0 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 187 yards31 attempts × 6.1 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 19.3 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
225.5 yards in 2 of 4250.5 yards in 1 of 4275.5 yards in 1 of 4
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
415 of 6,967
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
This line sits on 3, which was the exact final margin in 1,046 of 6,967 games.
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Dontayvion Wicks19.6% target share · 8.4 PPR last 4
DeVonta Smith18.9% target share · 16.2 PPR last 3
Makai Lemon15.4% target share · 5.7 PPR last 4
Malik Nabers28.0% target share · 15.3 PPR last 4
Darnell Mooney10.4% target share · 3.8 PPR last 4
Malachi Fields10.4% target share · 6.5 PPR last 4
Saquon Barkley30.8% of team carries · 5.8 PPR last 4
Tank Bigsby23.9% of team carries · 4.3 PPR last 4
Will Shipley17.1% of team carries · 4.4 PPR last 4
Cam Skattebo57.4% of team carries · 9.3 PPR last 4
Dallas Goedert11.2% target share · 11.6 PPR last 3
Zach Ertz5.6% target share · 1.7 PPR last 3
Johnny Mundt3.5% target share · 1 PPR last 4
Isaiah Likely29.3% target share · 14.4 PPR last 4
