Only DraftKings quotes this game so far, so there is no second number to compare it against. Books further out post one at a time; this fills in as kickoff gets closer.
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
CHI
47.3%
MIN
52.7%
Teams the market priced at 50–55% won 341 of 644 games since 1999.That is almost exactly what the price claimed — this market prices accurately.
4.7%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 104.7%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Tyson Bagent · CHIQB Index componentsKyler Murray · MIN
18 · F
Index
46 · C
21.3
Attempts / gm
25.3
5.9%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
8.2%
65.6%
Completion
QB Index · vs MIN
Tyson Bagent
CHI · 3 games, 64 attempts
18
index
F
Volumeweight 0.40
32nd of 34
21.3 attempts per game · team runs 71 plays at 48% pass · sacked on 5.9% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
24th of 34
6.4 yards per attempt · 65.6% completions · -0.077 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
26th of 32
MIN has allowed 6.3 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 207 yards
The life of this number: the DraftKings spread opened -1.5 on Mon, Oct 12, 89 days before kickoff and has not moved since.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 1.5 covered 99 of 194 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 104 of 194.
The total
Totals of 43.5 went over 162 of 326 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
Only one price recorded so far — nothing to plot until it moves.
The total
Over line.
Only one price recorded so far — nothing to plot until it moves.
Player props
The books haven't posted player props for this game yet — normal this far out. The archive is already watching for them: the moment a price appears it is captured, kept forever, and becomes loggable here.
When they land you'll get the same book you get on the game lines — closing-line value, a letter grade and a good-bet verdict on every prop you log. No projections: our prop model failed its own pre-registered calibration gate, and we don't ship numbers that failed.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
68.3%
6.4
Yards / att
6.6
144.3
Air yards / gm
158.5
-0.077
EPA / dropback
-0.076
+1.7
CPOE
completion % over expected
+5.4
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 21.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
100.5 yards in 1 of 3
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs CHI
Kyler Murray
MIN · 4 games, 101 attempts
46
index
C
Volumeweight 0.40
30th of 34
25.3 attempts per game · team runs 58 plays at 48% pass · sacked on 8.2% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
18th of 34
6.6 yards per attempt · 68.3% completions · -0.076 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
2nd of 32
CHI has allowed 8.8 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 169 yards26 attempts × 6.6 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 22.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
200.5 yards in 2 of 4225.5 yards in 2 of 4250.5 yards in 0 of 4
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Luther Burden III21.7% target share · 11.6 PPR last 4
Rome Odunze18.0% target share · 8.8 PPR last 4
Kalif Raymond16.8% target share · 9 PPR last 4
Justin Jefferson19.2% target share · 15.9 PPR last 4
Jordan Addison16.9% target share · 8.3 PPR last 4
Myles Price5.4% target share · 3 PPR last 4
D'Andre Swift45.9% of team carries · 12.1 PPR last 4
Kyle Monangai35.3% of team carries · 14.8 PPR last 4
Roschon Johnson5.3% of team carries · 4.1 PPR last 3
Aaron Jones67.8% of team carries · 15.1 PPR last 4
Colston Loveland14.3% target share · 6 PPR last 4
Cole Kmet5.6% target share · 1.3 PPR last 4
Sam Roush3.1% target share · 1.6 PPR last 4
T.J. Hockenson20.8% target share · 8.9 PPR last 4
