Seattle SeahawksatLos Angeles Rams

Sunday, Jan 10, 12:00 AM ET

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Head to head

Sam Darnold · SEAQB Index componentsMatthew Stafford · LA

27 · F

Index

58 · B

29.8

Attempts / gm

43.2

8.6%

Sacked

share of dropbacks

3.1%

60.4%

Completion

64.4%

6.9

Yards / att

7.3

215.4

Air yards / gm

374.2

-0.135

EPA / dropback

0.143

-4.6

CPOE

completion % over expected

+0.3

Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.

SEA skill corpswho they faceLAR skill corps

102.4

Receivers

yds/gm allowed · vs LAR / vs SEA

100.5

WR statements like this held 53.3%· CI 43.9–62.4, no measured edge

Jaxon Smith-Njigba34.9% target share · 24 PPR last 4
Rashid Shaheed14.8% target share · 8 PPR last 4
Cooper Kupp13.2% target share · 7.6 PPR last 4

QB Index · vs LA

Sam Darnold

SEA · 5 games, 149 attempts

index

Volumeweight 0.40

20th of 34

29.8 attempts per game · team runs 61 plays at 55% pass · sacked on 8.6% of dropbacks

Efficiencyweight 0.35

26th of 34

6.9 yards per attempt · 60.4% completions · -0.135 EPA per dropback

Matchupweight 0.25

31st of 32

LA has allowed 5.7 yards per attempt across 5 games

≈ 209 yards

The spread, hour by hour

Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.

No prices archived for this market yet.

The total

Over line.

No prices archived for this market yet.

Player props

The books haven't posted player props for this game yet — normal this far out. The archive is already watching for them: the moment a price appears it is captured, kept forever, and becomes loggable here.

When they land you'll get the same book you get on the game lines — closing-line value, a letter grade and a good-bet verdict on every prop you log. No projections: our prop model failed its own pre-registered calibration gate, and we don't ship numbers that failed.

Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.

21.4% target share · 22.4 PPR last 4

Puka Nacua21.4% target share · 25.9 PPR last 3

Konata Mumpfield6.7% target share · 5.8 PPR last 4

88.0

Backs

yds/gm allowed · vs LAR / vs SEA

76.8

statements like this held next week 54.6%· CI 50.7–58.5

Emanuel Wilson54.0% of team carries · 11.7 PPR last 4
George Holani19.3% of team carries · 6.7 PPR last 4
Jadarian Price17.4% of team carries · 4.7 PPR last 3

RB statements like this held 51.9%· CI 42.4–61.3, no measured edge

Kyren Williams57.4% of team carries · 23.5 PPR last 4
Blake Corum31.1% of team carries · 8.3 PPR last 4
Ronnie Rivers4.1% of team carries · 3.4 PPR last 1

19.6

Tight ends

yds/gm allowed · vs LAR / vs SEA

25.5

TE statements like this held 58.5%· CI 49–67.4, no measured edge

AJ Barner12.7% target share · 5.9 PPR last 4

Tyler Higbee11.9% target share · 11.6 PPR last 4
Terrance Ferguson5.7% target share · 6.4 PPR last 3
Davis Allen4.3% target share · 2.5 PPR last 4

Where this ranking comes from

30 attempts × 6.9 yards per attempt

Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.

What he has actually cleared

175.5 yards in 3 of 5200.5 yards in 2 of 5225.5 yards in 2 of 5

The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.

QB Index · vs SEA

Matthew Stafford

LA · 5 games, 216 attempts

index

Volumeweight 0.40

1st of 34

43.2 attempts per game · team runs 69 plays at 63% pass · sacked on 3.1% of dropbacks

Efficiencyweight 0.35

17th of 34

7.3 yards per attempt · 64.4% completions · 0.143 EPA per dropback

Matchupweight 0.25

32nd of 32

SEA has allowed 5.3 yards per attempt across 6 games

≈ 309 yards42 attempts × 7.3 yards per attempt

Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.

What he has actually cleared

300.5 yards in 4 of 5325.5 yards in 3 of 5350.5 yards in 2 of 5