Only DraftKings quotes this game so far, so there is no second number to compare it against. Books further out post one at a time; this fills in as kickoff gets closer.
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
LV
22.2%
KC
77.8%
Teams the market priced at 75–80% won 434 of 552 games since 1999.Slightly better than the price claimed, by 1.2 points.
4.6%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 104.6%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Kirk Cousins · LVQB Index componentsPatrick Mahomes · KC
53 · B
Index
67 · B+
34.4
Attempts / gm
32.0
4.4%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
4.5%
65.1%
QB Index · vs KC
Kirk Cousins
LV · 5 games, 172 attempts
53
index
B
Volumeweight 0.40
12th of 34
34.4 attempts per game · team runs 63 plays at 57% pass · sacked on 4.4% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
13th of 34
7.4 yards per attempt · 65.1% completions · 0.191 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
28th of 32
KC has allowed 6.2 yards per attempt across 4 games
≈ 254 yards
The life of this number: the DraftKings spread opened -8.5 on Mon, Oct 12, 89 days before kickoff and has not moved since.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 8.5 covered 46 of 94 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 73 of 94.
The total
Totals of 40.5 went over 112 of 207 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
Only one price recorded so far — nothing to plot until it moves.
The total
Over line.
Only one price recorded so far — nothing to plot until it moves.
Player props
The books haven't posted player props for this game yet — normal this far out. The archive is already watching for them: the moment a price appears it is captured, kept forever, and becomes loggable here.
When they land you'll get the same book you get on the game lines — closing-line value, a letter grade and a good-bet verdict on every prop you log. No projections: our prop model failed its own pre-registered calibration gate, and we don't ship numbers that failed.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
Completion
64.1%
7.4
Yards / att
8.1
282.0
Air yards / gm
222.8
0.191
EPA / dropback
0.192
+1.9
CPOE
completion % over expected
+0.8
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 16.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
225.5 yards in 4 of 5250.5 yards in 2 of 5275.5 yards in 1 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs LV
Patrick Mahomes
KC · 4 games, 128 attempts
67
index
B+
Volumeweight 0.40
15th of 34
32.0 attempts per game · team runs 62 plays at 52% pass · sacked on 4.5% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
13th of 34
8.1 yards per attempt · 64.1% completions · 0.192 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
5th of 32
LV has allowed 7.9 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 248 yards31 attempts × 8.1 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 24.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
225.5 yards in 2 of 4250.5 yards in 1 of 4275.5 yards in 1 of 4
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Tre Tucker16.1% target share · 11.8 PPR last 4
Cody White8.6% target share · 9.4 PPR last 4
Jalen Nailor6.3% target share · 3.4 PPR last 3
Xavier Worthy18.5% target share · 8.3 PPR last 4
Rashee Rice14.3% target share · 12.7 PPR last 3
Tyquan Thornton12.6% target share · 11.2 PPR last 4
Ashton Jeanty71.0% of team carries · 13 PPR last 4
Mike Washington Jr.20.2% of team carries · 4.2 PPR last 4
Connor Heyward3.2% of team carries · 0.4 PPR last 4
Kenneth Walker III78.4% of team carries · 27.5 PPR last 4
Brock Bowers19.5% target share · 23.7 PPR last 3
Michael Mayer14.4% target share · 8.7 PPR last 4
Travis Kelce18.5% target share · 13.2 PPR last 4
Noah Gray6.7% target share · 3 PPR last 4