Sitting on 7 — the most valuable number it can hold
Nothing to shop yet
Only DraftKings quotes this game so far, so there is no second number to compare it against. Books further out post one at a time; this fills in as kickoff gets closer.
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
TEN
27.4%
HOU
72.6%
Teams the market priced at 70–75% won 527 of 722 games since 1999.That is almost exactly what the price claimed — this market prices accurately.
4.3%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 104.3%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Cam Ward · TENQB Index componentsC.J. Stroud · HOU
43 · D
Index
74 · A
31.0
Attempts / gm
37.0
6.1%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
7.0%
63.2%
Completion
QB Index · vs HOU
Cam Ward
TEN · 5 games, 155 attempts
43
index
D
Volumeweight 0.40
17th of 34
31.0 attempts per game · team runs 53 plays at 59% pass · sacked on 6.1% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
26th of 34
5.8 yards per attempt · 63.2% completions · -0.185 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
15th of 32
HOU has allowed 7.2 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 168 yards
The life of this number: the DraftKings spread opened -7 on Mon, Oct 12, 89 days before kickoff and has not moved since — 6 days sitting on 7.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 7 covered 224 of 439 games.
The range covers a coin flip. 30 pushed and are excluded — at whole numbers that matters more than it sounds.
They won outright in 355 of 469.
The total
Totals of 39.5 went over 82 of 171 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
Only one price recorded so far — nothing to plot until it moves.
The total
Over line.
Only one price recorded so far — nothing to plot until it moves.
Player props
The books haven't posted player props for this game yet — normal this far out. The archive is already watching for them: the moment a price appears it is captured, kept forever, and becomes loggable here.
When they land you'll get the same book you get on the game lines — closing-line value, a letter grade and a good-bet verdict on every prop you log. No projections: our prop model failed its own pre-registered calibration gate, and we don't ship numbers that failed.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
64.3%
5.8
Yards / att
7.6
215.8
Air yards / gm
355.4
-0.185
EPA / dropback
0.089
+2.3
CPOE
completion % over expected
+4.0
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 16.3 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
150.5 yards in 4 of 5175.5 yards in 3 of 5200.5 yards in 1 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs TEN
C.J. Stroud
HOU · 5 games, 185 attempts
74
index
A
Volumeweight 0.40
9th of 34
37.0 attempts per game · team runs 61 plays at 61% pass · sacked on 7.0% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
12th of 34
7.6 yards per attempt · 64.3% completions · 0.089 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
6th of 32
TEN has allowed 7.8 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 262 yards35 attempts × 7.6 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 23.3 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
250.5 yards in 4 of 5275.5 yards in 2 of 5300.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
This line sits on 7, which was the exact final margin in 634 of 6,967 games.
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Carnell Tate25.7% target share · 10.2 PPR last 4
Wan'Dale Robinson20.8% target share · 10.7 PPR last 4
Elic Ayomanor8.3% target share · 4.2 PPR last 4
Xavier Hutchinson18.1% target share · 8.3 PPR last 4
Nico Collins14.6% target share · 20.9 PPR last 3
Kayshon Boutte10.5% target share · 6 PPR last 4
Tony Pollard63.6% of team carries · 9.8 PPR last 4
Tyjae Spears15.9% of team carries · 5.2 PPR last 4
Nicholas Singleton6.5% of team carries · 0.6 PPR last 2
David Montgomery45.2% of team carries · 4.2 PPR last 4
Gunnar Helm9.7% target share · 2.5 PPR last 4
Daniel Bellinger4.9% target share · 1.6 PPR last 4
Dalton Schultz18.1% target share · 10.2 PPR last 4
Foster Moreau7.0% target share · 4.5 PPR last 4