Sitting on 10 — the most valuable number it can hold
Nothing to shop yet
Only DraftKings quotes this game so far, so there is no second number to compare it against. Books further out post one at a time; this fills in as kickoff gets closer.
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
NYJ
20.8%
BUF
79.2%
Teams the market priced at 75–80% won 434 of 552 games since 1999.Slightly better than the price claimed, by 1.2 points.
4.4%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 104.4%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Geno Smith · NYJQB Index componentsJosh Allen · BUF
52 · C
Index
42 · D
29.4
Attempts / gm
27.6
9.8%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
6.8%
69.4%
QB Index · vs BUF
Geno Smith
NYJ · 5 games, 147 attempts
52
index
C
Volumeweight 0.40
22nd of 34
29.4 attempts per game · team runs 56 plays at 53% pass · sacked on 9.8% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
14th of 34
7.4 yards per attempt · 69.4% completions · 0.054 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
12th of 32
BUF has allowed 7.4 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 196 yards
The life of this number: the DraftKings spread opened -10 on Mon, Oct 12, 89 days before kickoff and has not moved since — 6 days sitting on 10.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 10 covered 83 of 186 games.
The range covers a coin flip. 14 pushed and are excluded — at whole numbers that matters more than it sounds.
They won outright in 163 of 200.
The total
Totals of 43.5 went over 162 of 326 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
Only one price recorded so far — nothing to plot until it moves.
The total
Over line.
Only one price recorded so far — nothing to plot until it moves.
Player props
The books haven't posted player props for this game yet — normal this far out. The archive is already watching for them: the moment a price appears it is captured, kept forever, and becomes loggable here.
When they land you'll get the same book you get on the game lines — closing-line value, a letter grade and a good-bet verdict on every prop you log. No projections: our prop model failed its own pre-registered calibration gate, and we don't ship numbers that failed.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
Completion
65.9%
7.4
Yards / att
9.1
200.0
Air yards / gm
261.8
0.054
EPA / dropback
0.286
+2.6
CPOE
completion % over expected
+4.4
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 16.8 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
200.5 yards in 3 of 5225.5 yards in 2 of 5250.5 yards in 1 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs NYJ
Josh Allen
BUF · 5 games, 138 attempts
42
index
D
Volumeweight 0.40
26th of 34
27.6 attempts per game · team runs 57 plays at 48% pass · sacked on 6.8% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
6th of 34
9.1 yards per attempt · 65.9% completions · 0.286 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
29th of 32
NYJ has allowed 6.1 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 233 yards26 attempts × 9.1 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 26.8 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
225.5 yards in 3 of 5250.5 yards in 2 of 5275.5 yards in 1 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
This line sits on 10, which was the exact final margin in 390 of 6,967 games.
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Garrett Wilson30.5% target share · 18.1 PPR last 4
Adonai Mitchell10.6% target share · 10.7 PPR last 2
Isaiah Williams9.9% target share · 8 PPR last 4
Khalil Shakir19.5% target share · 8.2 PPR last 4
DJ Moore15.0% target share · 9.1 PPR last 4
Keon Coleman14.3% target share · 12.1 PPR last 4
Braelon Allen46.0% of team carries · 10.1 PPR last 4
Breece Hall41.1% of team carries · 14.2 PPR last 3
James Cook67.4% of team carries · 19.8 PPR last 4
Ray Davis2.8% of team carries · 1.6 PPR last 4
Kenyon Sadiq14.9% target share · 6.9 PPR last 4
Jeremy Ruckert5.7% target share · 6.3 PPR last 3
Mason Taylor4.3% target share · 3.6 PPR last 2
Dalton Kincaid16.5% target share · 7.9 PPR last 4
