San Francisco 49ersatArizona Cardinals

Sunday, Jan 10, 12:00 AM ET

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Prices archived

0 spread · 0 total

Head to head

Brock Purdy · SFQB Index componentsJacoby Brissett · ARI

68 · B+

Index

48 · C

28.4

Attempts / gm

39.8

2.1%

Sacked

share of dropbacks

5.7%

69.0%

Completion

66.3%

8.4

Yards / att

5.6

220.6

Air yards / gm

284.2

0.397

EPA / dropback

-0.020

+6.0

CPOE

completion % over expected

+1.1

Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.

SF skill corpswho they faceARI skill corps

156.6

Receivers

yds/gm allowed · vs ARI / vs SF

126.8

statements like this held next week 54.6%· CI 50.7–58.5

Mike Evans25.4% target share · 14.9 PPR last 4
Deebo Samuel Sr.14.5% target share · 10.6 PPR last 4
Demarcus Robinson4.3% target share · 9.7 PPR last 2

WR statements like this held 53.3%· CI 43.9–62.4, no measured edge

QB Index · vs ARI

Brock Purdy

SF · 5 games, 142 attempts

index

B+

Volumeweight 0.40

25th of 34

28.4 attempts per game · team runs 56 plays at 51% pass · sacked on 2.1% of dropbacks

Efficiencyweight 0.35

4th of 34

8.4 yards per attempt · 69.0% completions · 0.397 EPA per dropback

Matchupweight 0.25

1st of 32

ARI has allowed 9.1 yards per attempt across 5 games

≈ 234 yards

The spread, hour by hour

Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.

No prices archived for this market yet.

The total

Over line.

No prices archived for this market yet.

Player props

The books haven't posted player props for this game yet — normal this far out. The archive is already watching for them: the moment a price appears it is captured, kept forever, and becomes loggable here.

When they land you'll get the same book you get on the game lines — closing-line value, a letter grade and a good-bet verdict on every prop you log. No projections: our prop model failed its own pre-registered calibration gate, and we don't ship numbers that failed.

Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.

26.3% target share · 13.4 PPR last 4

Kendrick Bourne11.3% target share · 8.7 PPR last 4

Jalen Brooks4.1% target share · 0.9 PPR last 4

110.4

Backs

yds/gm allowed · vs ARI / vs SF

87.4

RB statements like this held 48%· CI 38.5–57.7, no measured edge

Christian McCaffrey47.7% of team carries · 19.4 PPR last 4
Kaelon Black28.9% of team carries · 1.8 PPR last 4

statements like this held next week 54.6%· CI 50.7–58.5

Jeremiyah Love57.8% of team carries · 9.5 PPR last 4
Tyler Allgeier30.2% of team carries · 6.3 PPR last 4

72.6

Tight ends

yds/gm allowed · vs ARI / vs SF

35.6

TE statements like this held 55.9%· CI 46.2–65.1, no measured edge

George Kittle20.3% target share · 17.2 PPR last 4

TE statements like this held 58.5%· CI 49–67.4, no measured edge

Trey McBride28.9% target share · 16.6 PPR last 4
Elijah Higgins4.1% target share · 5.9 PPR last 4

Where this ranking comes from

28 attempts × 8.4 yards per attempt

Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.

What he has actually cleared

200.5 yards in 4 of 5225.5 yards in 2 of 5250.5 yards in 2 of 5

The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.

QB Index · vs SF

Jacoby Brissett

ARI · 5 games, 199 attempts

index

Volumeweight 0.40

4th of 34

39.8 attempts per game · team runs 64 plays at 62% pass · sacked on 5.7% of dropbacks

Efficiencyweight 0.35

25th of 34

5.6 yards per attempt · 66.3% completions · -0.020 EPA per dropback

Matchupweight 0.25

30th of 32

SF has allowed 6.1 yards per attempt across 5 games

≈ 210 yards38 attempts × 5.6 yards per attempt

Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.

What he has actually cleared

250.5 yards in 3 of 5275.5 yards in 3 of 5300.5 yards in 0 of 5