Denver BroncosatNew England Patriots

Sunday, Jan 3, 12:00 AM ET

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0 spread · 0 total

Head to head

Bo Nix · DENQB Index componentsDrake Maye · NE

39 · D

Index

41 · D

33.8

Attempts / gm

29.3

3.6%

Sacked

share of dropbacks

7.9%

60.0%

Completion

62.4%

6.1

Yards / att

7.3

183.0

Air yards / gm

267.5

-0.016

EPA / dropback

-0.071

-2.9

CPOE

completion % over expected

+2.1

Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.

DEN skill corpswho they faceNE skill corps

147.3

Receivers

yds/gm allowed · vs NE / vs DEN

133.8

statements like this held next week 54.6%· CI 50.7–58.5

Jaylen Waddle21.3% target share · 11 PPR last 4
Courtland Sutton17.3% target share · 4.4 PPR last 4
Pat Bryant10.2% target share · 8 PPR last 4

QB Index · vs NE

Bo Nix

DEN · 4 games, 135 attempts

index

Volumeweight 0.40

12th of 30

33.8 attempts per game · team runs 56 plays at 60% pass · sacked on 3.6% of dropbacks

Efficiencyweight 0.35

23rd of 30

6.1 yards per attempt · 60.0% completions · -0.016 EPA per dropback

Matchupweight 0.25

25th of 32

NE has allowed 6.5 yards per attempt across 4 games

≈ 197 yards

The spread, hour by hour

Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.

No prices archived for this market yet.

The total

Over line.

No prices archived for this market yet.

Player props

The books haven't posted player props for this game yet — normal this far out. The archive is already watching for them: the moment a price appears it is captured, kept forever, and becomes loggable here.

When they land you'll get the same book you get on the game lines — closing-line value, a letter grade and a good-bet verdict on every prop you log. No projections: our prop model failed its own pre-registered calibration gate, and we don't ship numbers that failed.

Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.

16.8% target share · 9 PPR last 4

Romeo Doubs16.8% target share · 11.1 PPR last 4

DeMario Douglas14.3% target share · 4.3 PPR last 4

89.5

Backs

yds/gm allowed · vs NE / vs DEN

113.5

statements like this held next week 54.6%· CI 50.7–58.5

J.K. Dobbins52.9% of team carries · 5.2 PPR last 4
RJ Harvey13.8% of team carries · 12.7 PPR last 3
Jonah Coleman11.5% of team carries · 7.4 PPR last 2

RB statements like this held 48%· CI 38.5–57.7, no measured edge

Rhamondre Stevenson38.3% of team carries · 10.8 PPR last 4
TreVeyon Henderson33.0% of team carries · 7.2 PPR last 3
Corey Kiner12.2% of team carries · 1.2 PPR last 4

26.0

Tight ends

yds/gm allowed · vs NE / vs DEN

67.3

TE statements like this held 58.5%· CI 49–67.4, no measured edge

Evan Engram10.2% target share · 4.7 PPR last 4
Nate Adkins3.9% target share · 6.9 PPR last 3

TE statements like this held 55.9%· CI 46.2–65.1, no measured edge

Hunter Henry12.6% target share · 6.3 PPR last 4

Where this ranking comes from

33 attempts × 6.1 yards per attempt

Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.

What he has actually cleared

200.5 yards in 2 of 4225.5 yards in 1 of 4250.5 yards in 1 of 4

The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.

QB Index · vs DEN

Drake Maye

NE · 4 games, 117 attempts

index

Volumeweight 0.40

20th of 30

29.3 attempts per game · team runs 61 plays at 51% pass · sacked on 7.9% of dropbacks

Efficiencyweight 0.35

17th of 30

7.3 yards per attempt · 62.4% completions · -0.071 EPA per dropback

Matchupweight 0.25

18th of 32

DEN has allowed 7.0 yards per attempt across 4 games

≈ 207 yards28 attempts × 7.3 yards per attempt

Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.

What he has actually cleared

175.5 yards in 4 of 4200.5 yards in 2 of 4225.5 yards in 1 of 4