Kansas City ChiefsatLos Angeles Chargers

Sunday, Jan 3, 12:00 AM ET

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Prices archived

0 spread · 0 total

Head to head

Patrick Mahomes · KCQB Index componentsJustin Herbert · LAC

63 · B+

Index

27 · F

32.0

Attempts / gm

29.8

4.5%

Sacked

share of dropbacks

9.2%

64.1%

Completion

59.7%

8.1

Yards / att

6.9

222.8

Air yards / gm

262.3

0.192

EPA / dropback

-0.157

+0.8

CPOE

completion % over expected

-4.3

Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.

KC skill corpswho they faceLAC skill corps

148.3

Receivers

yds/gm allowed · vs LAC / vs KC

108.5

statements like this held next week 54.6%· CI 50.7–58.5

Xavier Worthy18.5% target share · 8.3 PPR last 4
Rashee Rice14.3% target share · 12.7 PPR last 3
Tyquan Thornton12.6% target share · 11.2 PPR last 4

WR statements like this held 53.3%· CI 43.9–62.4, no measured edge

QB Index · vs LAC

Patrick Mahomes

KC · 4 games, 128 attempts

index

B+

Volumeweight 0.40

15th of 30

32.0 attempts per game · team runs 62 plays at 52% pass · sacked on 4.5% of dropbacks

Efficiencyweight 0.35

12th of 30

8.1 yards per attempt · 64.1% completions · 0.192 EPA per dropback

Matchupweight 0.25

7th of 32

LAC has allowed 7.9 yards per attempt across 4 games

≈ 248 yards

The spread, hour by hour

Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.

No prices archived for this market yet.

The total

Over line.

No prices archived for this market yet.

Player props

The books haven't posted player props for this game yet — normal this far out. The archive is already watching for them: the moment a price appears it is captured, kept forever, and becomes loggable here.

When they land you'll get the same book you get on the game lines — closing-line value, a letter grade and a good-bet verdict on every prop you log. No projections: our prop model failed its own pre-registered calibration gate, and we don't ship numbers that failed.

Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.

17.9% target share · 8.5 PPR last 4

Quentin Johnston16.2% target share · 4.5 PPR last 4

Ladd McConkey14.5% target share · 9.1 PPR last 4

102.8

Backs

yds/gm allowed · vs LAC / vs KC

69.0

RB statements like this held 48%· CI 38.5–57.7, no measured edge

Kenneth Walker III78.4% of team carries · 27.5 PPR last 4
Emmett Johnson14.4% of team carries · 4.5 PPR last 4

RB statements like this held 51.9%· CI 42.4–61.3, no measured edge

Omarion Hampton52.2% of team carries · 11.2 PPR last 4
Keaton Mitchell23.9% of team carries · 7.7 PPR last 4
Kimani Vidal5.3% of team carries · 4.9 PPR last 3

46.0

Tight ends

yds/gm allowed · vs LAC / vs KC

82.3

statements like this held next week 54.6%· CI 50.7–58.5

Travis Kelce18.5% target share · 13.2 PPR last 4
Noah Gray6.7% target share · 3 PPR last 4

TE statements like this held 55.9%· CI 46.2–65.1, no measured edge

Oronde Gadsden II12.8% target share · 6 PPR last 4
David Njoku6.8% target share · 6.4 PPR last 2

Where this ranking comes from

31 attempts × 8.1 yards per attempt

Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.

What he has actually cleared

225.5 yards in 2 of 4250.5 yards in 1 of 4275.5 yards in 1 of 4

The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.

QB Index · vs KC

Justin Herbert

LAC · 4 games, 119 attempts

index

Volumeweight 0.40

18th of 30

29.8 attempts per game · team runs 58 plays at 52% pass · sacked on 9.2% of dropbacks

Efficiencyweight 0.35

23rd of 30

6.9 yards per attempt · 59.7% completions · -0.157 EPA per dropback

Matchupweight 0.25

29th of 32

KC has allowed 6.2 yards per attempt across 4 games

≈ 187 yards27 attempts × 6.9 yards per attempt

Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.

What he has actually cleared

175.5 yards in 4 of 4200.5 yards in 2 of 4225.5 yards in 1 of 4