Washington CommandersatJacksonville Jaguars

Sunday, Jan 3, 12:00 AM ET

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Head to head

Marcus Mariota · WASQB Index componentsTrevor Lawrence · JAX

46 · C

Index

53 · B

17.0

Attempts / gm

26.0

5.6%

Sacked

share of dropbacks

7.1%

64.7%

Completion

69.2%

6.7

Yards / att

8.1

150.7

Air yards / gm

221.5

0.210

EPA / dropback

0.283

+6.1

CPOE

completion % over expected

+10.4

Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.

WSH skill corpswho they faceJAX skill corps

210.5

Receivers

yds/gm allowed · vs JAX / vs WSH

166.5

WR statements like this held next week 60%· CI 50.4–68.9

Stefon Diggs23.8% target share · 13.3 PPR last 4
Terry McLaurin16.9% target share · 10 PPR last 3
Antonio Williams14.6% target share · 7.6 PPR last 4

statements like this held next week 54.6%· CI 50.7–58.5

QB Index · vs JAX

Marcus Mariota

WAS · 3 games, 51 attempts

index

Volumeweight 0.40

30th of 30

17.0 attempts per game · team runs 64 plays at 54% pass · sacked on 5.6% of dropbacks

Efficiencyweight 0.35

12th of 30

6.7 yards per attempt · 64.7% completions · 0.210 EPA per dropback

Matchupweight 0.25

3rd of 32

JAX has allowed 8.4 yards per attempt across 4 games

≈ 216 yards

The spread, hour by hour

Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.

No prices archived for this market yet.

The total

Over line.

No prices archived for this market yet.

Player props

The books haven't posted player props for this game yet — normal this far out. The archive is already watching for them: the moment a price appears it is captured, kept forever, and becomes loggable here.

When they land you'll get the same book you get on the game lines — closing-line value, a letter grade and a good-bet verdict on every prop you log. No projections: our prop model failed its own pre-registered calibration gate, and we don't ship numbers that failed.

Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.

26.0% target share · 12.8 PPR last 4

Jakobi Meyers15.0% target share · 10.4 PPR last 4

Brian Thomas Jr.15.0% target share · 6.4 PPR last 4

47.5

Backs

yds/gm allowed · vs JAX / vs WSH

73.5

RB statements like this held 51.9%· CI 42.4–61.3, no measured edge

Jacory Croskey-Merritt50.5% of team carries · 7.7 PPR last 4
Rachaad White19.8% of team carries · 10 PPR last 3
Kaytron Allen10.8% of team carries · 1.4 PPR last 3

Bhayshul Tuten56.1% of team carries · 13 PPR last 4
Chris Rodriguez Jr.24.3% of team carries · 5.7 PPR last 4
Ameer Abdullah9.3% of team carries · 1.7 PPR last 4

32.8

Tight ends

yds/gm allowed · vs JAX / vs WSH

60.8

TE statements like this held 58.5%· CI 49–67.4, no measured edge

Chig Okonkwo5.4% target share · 3 PPR last 2
John Bates3.8% target share · 2.6 PPR last 2

statements like this held next week 54.6%· CI 50.7–58.5

Brenton Strange18.0% target share · 9.2 PPR last 4

Where this ranking comes from

32 attempts × 6.7 yards per attempt

Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.

What he has actually cleared

100.5 yards in 2 of 3125.5 yards in 1 of 3

The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.

QB Index · vs WAS

Trevor Lawrence

JAX · 4 games, 104 attempts

index

Volumeweight 0.40

25th of 30

26.0 attempts per game · team runs 54 plays at 48% pass · sacked on 7.1% of dropbacks

Efficiencyweight 0.35

4th of 30

8.1 yards per attempt · 69.2% completions · 0.283 EPA per dropback

Matchupweight 0.25

14th of 32

WAS has allowed 7.4 yards per attempt across 4 games

≈ 196 yards24 attempts × 8.1 yards per attempt

Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.

What he has actually cleared

200.5 yards in 2 of 4225.5 yards in 2 of 4250.5 yards in 0 of 4