Week 17
Detroit LionsatChicago Bears
Sunday, Jan 3, 4:25 PM ET
Opened
-1.5
First seen Oct 5
Now
-1.5
Unmoved
Total
49.5
Prices archived
6
1 spread · 1 total
Nothing to shop yet
Only DraftKings quotes this game so far, so there is no second number to compare it against. Books further out post one at a time; this fills in as kickoff gets closer.
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
DET
47.3%
CHI
52.7%
Teams the market priced at 50–55% won 341 of 644 games since 1999.That is almost exactly what the price claimed — this market prices accurately.
4.7%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 104.7%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
DET skill corpswho they faceCHI skill corps
128.8
Receivers
207.3yds/gm allowed · vs CHI / vs DET
statements like this held next week 54.6%· CI 50.7–58.5
Amon-Ra St. Brown28.9% target share · 22.8 PPR last 4
Jameson Williams15.7% target share · 9.7 PPR last 4
Isaac TeSlaa10.7% target share · 6.9 PPR last 4
QB Index · vs CHI
Jared Goff
DET · 4 games, 161 attempts
77
index
A
Volumeweight 0.40
4th of 30
40.3 attempts per game · team runs 65 plays at 62% pass · sacked on 4.7% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
10th of 30
7.5 yards per attempt · 67.7% completions · 0.289 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
11th of 32
CHI has allowed 7.8 yards per attempt across 4 games
≈ 289 yards
The life of this number: the DraftKings spread opened -1.5 on Mon, Oct 5, 90 days before kickoff and has not moved since.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 1.5 covered 99 of 194 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 104 of 194.
The total
Totals of 49.5 went over 53 of 126 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
Only one price recorded so far — nothing to plot until it moves.
The total
Over line.
Only one price recorded so far — nothing to plot until it moves.
Player props
The books haven't posted player props for this game yet — normal this far out. The archive is already watching for them: the moment a price appears it is captured, kept forever, and becomes loggable here.
When they land you'll get the same book you get on the game lines — closing-line value, a letter grade and a good-bet verdict on every prop you log. No projections: our prop model failed its own pre-registered calibration gate, and we don't ship numbers that failed.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
