Only DraftKings quotes this game so far, so there is no second number to compare it against. Books further out post one at a time; this fills in as kickoff gets closer.
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
LV
53.2%
ARI
46.8%
Teams the market priced at 50–55% won 341 of 644 games since 1999.That is almost exactly what the price claimed — this market prices accurately.
4.3%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 104.3%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Kirk Cousins · LVQB Index componentsJacoby Brissett · ARI
72 · A
Index
52 · C
36.0
Attempts / gm
38.0
3.4%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
4.4%
64.6%
Completion
QB Index · vs ARI
Kirk Cousins
LV · 4 games, 144 attempts
72
index
A
Volumeweight 0.40
11th of 30
36.0 attempts per game · team runs 66 plays at 55% pass · sacked on 3.4% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
13th of 30
7.1 yards per attempt · 64.6% completions · 0.169 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
1st of 32
ARI has allowed 9.1 yards per attempt across 4 games
≈ 248 yards
The life of this number: the DraftKings spread opened +1.5 on Mon, Oct 5, 90 days before kickoff and has not moved since.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 1.5 covered 99 of 194 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 104 of 194.
The total
Totals of 42.5 went over 116 of 221 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
Only one price recorded so far — nothing to plot until it moves.
The total
Over line.
Only one price recorded so far — nothing to plot until it moves.
Player props
The books haven't posted player props for this game yet — normal this far out. The archive is already watching for them: the moment a price appears it is captured, kept forever, and becomes loggable here.
When they land you'll get the same book you get on the game lines — closing-line value, a letter grade and a good-bet verdict on every prop you log. No projections: our prop model failed its own pre-registered calibration gate, and we don't ship numbers that failed.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
67.8%
7.1
Yards / att
5.4
309.5
Air yards / gm
236.0
0.169
EPA / dropback
-0.045
+2.3
CPOE
completion % over expected
+1.0
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 22.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
225.5 yards in 3 of 4250.5 yards in 2 of 4275.5 yards in 1 of 4
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs LV
Jacoby Brissett
ARI · 4 games, 152 attempts
52
index
C
Volumeweight 0.40
8th of 30
38.0 attempts per game · team runs 64 plays at 59% pass · sacked on 4.4% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
23rd of 30
5.4 yards per attempt · 67.8% completions · -0.045 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
16th of 32
LV has allowed 7.1 yards per attempt across 4 games
≈ 195 yards36 attempts × 5.4 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 20.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
250.5 yards in 2 of 4275.5 yards in 2 of 4300.5 yards in 0 of 4
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Tre Tucker16.7% target share · 11.1 PPR last 4
Cody White8.0% target share · 7.8 PPR last 4
Jalen Nailor8.0% target share · 3.4 PPR last 3
Michael Wilson29.7% target share · 14.2 PPR last 4
Kendrick Bourne9.5% target share · 7.6 PPR last 3
Marvin Harrison Jr.8.8% target share · 4.9 PPR last 4
Ashton Jeanty72.9% of team carries · 18.5 PPR last 4
Mike Washington Jr.22.4% of team carries · 4.7 PPR last 4
Connor Heyward3.7% of team carries · 0.4 PPR last 4
Jeremiyah Love55.6% of team carries · 12.2 PPR last 4
Michael Mayer17.4% target share · 10.7 PPR last 4
Brock Bowers17.4% target share · 24.1 PPR last 2
Trey McBride31.1% target share · 17.3 PPR last 4
Elijah Higgins3.4% target share · 5 PPR last 3