Only DraftKings quotes this game so far, so there is no second number to compare it against. Books further out post one at a time; this fills in as kickoff gets closer.
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
PIT
53.2%
TEN
46.8%
Teams the market priced at 50–55% won 341 of 644 games since 1999.That is almost exactly what the price claimed — this market prices accurately.
4.3%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 104.3%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Aaron Rodgers · PITQB Index componentsCam Ward · TEN
57 · B
Index
48 · C
38.3
Attempts / gm
29.8
7.8%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
4.8%
57.5%
Completion
QB Index · vs TEN
Aaron Rodgers
PIT · 4 games, 153 attempts
57
index
B
Volumeweight 0.40
7th of 30
38.3 attempts per game · team runs 60 plays at 64% pass · sacked on 7.8% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
24th of 30
6.5 yards per attempt · 57.5% completions · -0.110 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
10th of 32
TEN has allowed 7.9 yards per attempt across 4 games
≈ 233 yards
The life of this number: the DraftKings spread opened +1.5 on Mon, Oct 5, 90 days before kickoff and has not moved since.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 1.5 covered 99 of 194 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 104 of 194.
The total
Totals of 42.5 went over 116 of 221 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
Only one price recorded so far — nothing to plot until it moves.
The total
Over line.
Only one price recorded so far — nothing to plot until it moves.
Player props
The books haven't posted player props for this game yet — normal this far out. The archive is already watching for them: the moment a price appears it is captured, kept forever, and becomes loggable here.
When they land you'll get the same book you get on the game lines — closing-line value, a letter grade and a good-bet verdict on every prop you log. No projections: our prop model failed its own pre-registered calibration gate, and we don't ship numbers that failed.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
63.0%
6.5
Yards / att
6.1
358.3
Air yards / gm
196.5
-0.110
EPA / dropback
-0.108
-3.4
CPOE
completion % over expected
+3.4
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 22.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
275.5 yards in 2 of 4300.5 yards in 0 of 4325.5 yards in 0 of 4
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs PIT
Cam Ward
TEN · 4 games, 119 attempts
48
index
C
Volumeweight 0.40
18th of 30
29.8 attempts per game · team runs 52 plays at 57% pass · sacked on 4.8% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
20th of 30
6.1 yards per attempt · 63.0% completions · -0.108 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
8th of 32
PIT has allowed 7.9 yards per attempt across 4 games
≈ 173 yards28 attempts × 6.1 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 20.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
150.5 yards in 3 of 4175.5 yards in 3 of 4200.5 yards in 1 of 4
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
DK Metcalf22.8% target share · 10.8 PPR last 4
Roman Wilson16.6% target share · 11.2 PPR last 4
Michael Pittman8.3% target share · 5.3 PPR last 3
Carnell Tate29.4% target share · 11.7 PPR last 4
Wan'Dale Robinson21.1% target share · 10.1 PPR last 4
Elic Ayomanor9.2% target share · 5.6 PPR last 4
Jaylen Warren71.4% of team carries · 14.1 PPR last 4
Rico Dowdle19.5% of team carries · 5.3 PPR last 2
Travis Homer6.5% of team carries · 0.5 PPR last 3
Tony Pollard60.0% of team carries · 9.6 PPR last 4
Pat Freiermuth13.1% target share · 9.7 PPR last 4
Darnell Washington9.0% target share · 6.7 PPR last 4
Gunnar Helm11.9% target share · 4.3 PPR last 4
Daniel Bellinger4.6% target share · 1.6 PPR last 4
