Only DraftKings quotes this game so far, so there is no second number to compare it against. Books further out post one at a time; this fills in as kickoff gets closer.
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
MIN
62.2%
NYJ
37.8%
Teams the market priced at 60–65% won 553 of 931 games since 1999.Slightly worse than the price claimed, by 3.1 points.
4.3%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 104.3%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Kyler Murray · MINQB Index componentsGeno Smith · NYJ
16 · F
Index
46 · C
23.7
Attempts / gm
29.3
9.0%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
9.3%
63.4%
Completion
QB Index · vs NYJ
Kyler Murray
MIN · 3 games, 71 attempts
16
index
F
Volumeweight 0.40
28th of 30
23.7 attempts per game · team runs 57 plays at 49% pass · sacked on 9.0% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
23rd of 30
6.1 yards per attempt · 63.4% completions · -0.221 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
26th of 32
NYJ has allowed 6.5 yards per attempt across 4 games
≈ 153 yards
The life of this number: the DraftKings spread opened +3.5 on Mon, Oct 5, 90 days before kickoff and has not moved since.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 3.5 covered 325 of 656 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 414 of 656.
The total
Totals of 39.5 went over 82 of 171 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
Only one price recorded so far — nothing to plot until it moves.
The total
Over line.
Only one price recorded so far — nothing to plot until it moves.
Player props
The books haven't posted player props for this game yet — normal this far out. The archive is already watching for them: the moment a price appears it is captured, kept forever, and becomes loggable here.
When they land you'll get the same book you get on the game lines — closing-line value, a letter grade and a good-bet verdict on every prop you log. No projections: our prop model failed its own pre-registered calibration gate, and we don't ship numbers that failed.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
72.6%
6.1
Yards / att
7.7
155.0
Air yards / gm
208.5
-0.221
EPA / dropback
0.156
+3.3
CPOE
completion % over expected
+5.5
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 21.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
150.5 yards in 2 of 3175.5 yards in 1 of 3200.5 yards in 1 of 3
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs MIN
Geno Smith
NYJ · 4 games, 117 attempts
46
index
C
Volumeweight 0.40
20th of 30
29.3 attempts per game · team runs 54 plays at 54% pass · sacked on 9.3% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
9th of 30
7.7 yards per attempt · 72.6% completions · 0.156 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
23rd of 32
MIN has allowed 6.7 yards per attempt across 4 games
≈ 205 yards27 attempts × 7.7 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 18.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
225.5 yards in 2 of 4250.5 yards in 1 of 4275.5 yards in 1 of 4
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Jordan Addison21.8% target share · 8.3 PPR last 4
Justin Jefferson17.8% target share · 15 PPR last 3
Garrett Wilson28.6% target share · 15.8 PPR last 4
Adonai Mitchell13.4% target share · 10.7 PPR last 2
Isaiah Williams10.7% target share · 7.7 PPR last 4
Aaron Jones66.1% of team carries · 12.9 PPR last 4
Jordan Mason13.8% of team carries · 11.9 PPR last 1
Demond Claiborne5.5% of team carries · 0.8 PPR last 3
Breece Hall53.1% of team carries · 14.2 PPR last 3
T.J. Hockenson25.7% target share · 11.9 PPR last 4
Josh Oliver5.0% target share · 2.5 PPR last 3
Kenyon Sadiq16.1% target share · 9.7 PPR last 4
Jeremy Ruckert7.1% target share · 6.3 PPR last 3