Only DraftKings quotes this game so far, so there is no second number to compare it against. Books further out post one at a time; this fills in as kickoff gets closer.
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
NYG
34.1%
DAL
65.9%
Teams the market priced at 65–70% won 506 of 752 games since 1999.That is almost exactly what the price claimed — this market prices accurately.
4.7%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 104.7%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Jameis Winston · NYGQB Index componentsDak Prescott · DAL
34 · F
Index
58 · B
26.0
Attempts / gm
37.5
10.3%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
3.8%
55.1%
Completion
QB Index · vs DAL
Jameis Winston
NYG · 3 games, 78 attempts
34
index
F
Volumeweight 0.40
25th of 30
26.0 attempts per game · team runs 58 plays at 48% pass · sacked on 10.3% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
28th of 30
6.1 yards per attempt · 55.1% completions · -0.215 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
2nd of 32
DAL has allowed 8.6 yards per attempt across 4 games
≈ 154 yards
The life of this number: the DraftKings spread opened -4.5 on Mon, Oct 5, 90 days before kickoff and has not moved since.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 4.5 covered 127 of 254 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 169 of 254.
The total
Totals of 49.5 went over 53 of 126 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
Only one price recorded so far — nothing to plot until it moves.
The total
Over line.
Only one price recorded so far — nothing to plot until it moves.
Player props
The books haven't posted player props for this game yet — normal this far out. The archive is already watching for them: the moment a price appears it is captured, kept forever, and becomes loggable here.
When they land you'll get the same book you get on the game lines — closing-line value, a letter grade and a good-bet verdict on every prop you log. No projections: our prop model failed its own pre-registered calibration gate, and we don't ship numbers that failed.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
70.0%
6.1
Yards / att
7.1
254.0
Air yards / gm
271.3
-0.215
EPA / dropback
0.312
-9.6
CPOE
completion % over expected
+6.3
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 22.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
100.5 yards in 3 of 3125.5 yards in 1 of 3150.5 yards in 1 of 3
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs NYG
Dak Prescott
DAL · 4 games, 150 attempts
58
index
B
Volumeweight 0.40
10th of 30
37.5 attempts per game · team runs 61 plays at 61% pass · sacked on 3.8% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
7th of 30
7.1 yards per attempt · 70.0% completions · 0.312 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
28th of 32
NYG has allowed 6.2 yards per attempt across 4 games
≈ 256 yards36 attempts × 7.1 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 27.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
250.5 yards in 3 of 4275.5 yards in 3 of 4300.5 yards in 1 of 4
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Malik Nabers23.2% target share · 11.2 PPR last 4
Malachi Fields13.4% target share · 6.7 PPR last 4
Darnell Mooney8.9% target share · 4.1 PPR last 4
CeeDee Lamb32.4% target share · 28 PPR last 4
George Pickens19.3% target share · 10.1 PPR last 4
Ryan Flournoy15.9% target share · 5.8 PPR last 4
Cam Skattebo62.4% of team carries · 11.1 PPR last 4
Najee Harris21.1% of team carries · 2.9 PPR last 3
Devin Singletary8.3% of team carries · 7.4 PPR last 2
Javonte Williams67.4% of team carries · 20.4 PPR last 4
Isaiah Likely31.3% target share · 13.3 PPR last 4
Theo Johnson5.4% target share · 3.3 PPR last 3
Jake Ferguson10.3% target share · 9.1 PPR last 4
