Week 17
Indianapolis ColtsatCleveland Browns
Sunday, Jan 3, 1:00 PM ET
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0 spread · 0 total
Head to head
Daniel Jones · INDQB Index componentsDeshaun Watson · CLE
40 · D
Index
54 · B33.0
Attempts / gm
28.85.7%
Sacked
8.7%share of dropbacks
63.6%
Completion
69.6%5.7
Yards / att
7.4193.0
Air yards / gm
190.8-0.171
EPA / dropback
0.131-1.8
CPOE
+1.7completion % over expected
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
IND skill corpswho they faceCLE skill corps
172.0
Receivers
176.5yds/gm allowed · vs CLE / vs IND
Josh Downs22.8% target share · 9.3 PPR last 4
Keenan Allen16.3% target share · 9.7 PPR last 3
Laquon Treadwell8.9% target share · 5.3 PPR last 4
QB Index · vs CLE
Daniel Jones
IND · 4 games, 132 attempts
40
index
D
Volumeweight 0.40
13th of 30
33.0 attempts per game · team runs 61 plays at 54% pass · sacked on 5.7% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
26th of 30
5.7 yards per attempt · 63.6% completions · -0.171 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
17th of 32
CLE has allowed 7.0 yards per attempt across 4 games
≈ 178 yards
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
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The total
Over line.
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Player props
The books haven't posted player props for this game yet — normal this far out. The archive is already watching for them: the moment a price appears it is captured, kept forever, and becomes loggable here.
When they land you'll get the same book you get on the game lines — closing-line value, a letter grade and a good-bet verdict on every prop you log. No projections: our prop model failed its own pre-registered calibration gate, and we don't ship numbers that failed.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
