Seattle SeahawksatCarolina Panthers

Sunday, Jan 3, 1:00 PM ET

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Prices archived

0 spread · 0 total

Head to head

Sam Darnold · SEAQB Index componentsBryce Young · CAR

26 · F

Index

67 · B+

23.0

Attempts / gm

40.5

5.5%

Sacked

share of dropbacks

5.8%

65.2%

Completion

62.3%

8.1

Yards / att

7.8

156.3

Air yards / gm

364.8

-0.043

EPA / dropback

0.240

-6.2

CPOE

completion % over expected

+6.1

Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.

SEA skill corpswho they faceCAR skill corps

154.0

Receivers

yds/gm allowed · vs CAR / vs SEA

98.8

statements like this held next week 54.6%· CI 50.7–58.5

Jaxon Smith-Njigba36.5% target share · 29.2 PPR last 4
Rashid Shaheed13.0% target share · 6 PPR last 4
Cooper Kupp10.4% target share · 6.6 PPR last 4

WR statements like this held 53.3%· CI 43.9–62.4, no measured edge

QB Index · vs CAR

Sam Darnold

SEA · 3 games, 69 attempts

index

Volumeweight 0.40

29th of 30

23.0 attempts per game · team runs 58 plays at 51% pass · sacked on 5.5% of dropbacks

Efficiencyweight 0.35

17th of 30

8.1 yards per attempt · 65.2% completions · -0.043 EPA per dropback

Matchupweight 0.25

21st of 32

CAR has allowed 6.7 yards per attempt across 4 games

≈ 226 yards

The spread, hour by hour

Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.

No prices archived for this market yet.

The total

Over line.

No prices archived for this market yet.

Player props

The books haven't posted player props for this game yet — normal this far out. The archive is already watching for them: the moment a price appears it is captured, kept forever, and becomes loggable here.

When they land you'll get the same book you get on the game lines — closing-line value, a letter grade and a good-bet verdict on every prop you log. No projections: our prop model failed its own pre-registered calibration gate, and we don't ship numbers that failed.

Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.

26.5% target share · 18.6 PPR last 4

Jalen Coker15.0% target share · 17.4 PPR last 3

John Metchie III6.8% target share · 5.5 PPR last 3

120.0

Backs

yds/gm allowed · vs CAR / vs SEA

76.3

RB statements like this held 48%· CI 38.5–57.7, no measured edge

Emanuel Wilson49.5% of team carries · 9.5 PPR last 4
Jadarian Price26.2% of team carries · 4.7 PPR last 3
George Holani20.6% of team carries · 4.8 PPR last 4

RB statements like this held 51.9%· CI 42.4–61.3, no measured edge

Chuba Hubbard70.5% of team carries · 19.8 PPR last 4
AJ Dillon19.3% of team carries · 1.7 PPR last 4
Jonathon Brooks10.2% of team carries · 4.7 PPR last 2

53.3

Tight ends

yds/gm allowed · vs CAR / vs SEA

29.0

statements like this held next week 54.6%· CI 50.7–58.5

AJ Barner13.0% target share · 6.3 PPR last 4

TE statements like this held 58.5%· CI 49–67.4, no measured edge

Darren Waller12.9% target share · 10 PPR last 4
Tommy Tremble10.2% target share · 4.8 PPR last 4
Mitchell Evans4.8% target share · 3.1 PPR last 4

Where this ranking comes from

28 attempts × 8.1 yards per attempt

Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.

What he has actually cleared

150.5 yards in 2 of 3175.5 yards in 1 of 3200.5 yards in 1 of 3

The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.

QB Index · vs SEA

Bryce Young

CAR · 4 games, 162 attempts

index

B+

Volumeweight 0.40

3rd of 30

40.5 attempts per game · team runs 65 plays at 63% pass · sacked on 5.8% of dropbacks

Efficiencyweight 0.35

6th of 30

7.8 yards per attempt · 62.3% completions · 0.240 EPA per dropback

Matchupweight 0.25

31st of 32

SEA has allowed 5.2 yards per attempt across 4 games

≈ 300 yards38 attempts × 7.8 yards per attempt

Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.

What he has actually cleared

300.5 yards in 2 of 4325.5 yards in 2 of 4350.5 yards in 1 of 4