Only DraftKings quotes this game so far, so there is no second number to compare it against. Books further out post one at a time; this fills in as kickoff gets closer.
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
BAL
45.6%
CIN
54.4%
Teams the market priced at 50–55% won 341 of 644 games since 1999.That is almost exactly what the price claimed — this market prices accurately.
4.5%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 104.5%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Lamar Jackson · BALQB Index componentsJoe Burrow · CIN
54 · B
Index
65 · B+
24.0
Attempts / gm
39.3
6.8%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
5.4%
70.8%
Completion
QB Index · vs CIN
Lamar Jackson
BAL · 4 games, 96 attempts
54
index
B
Volumeweight 0.40
27th of 30
24.0 attempts per game · team runs 58 plays at 45% pass · sacked on 6.8% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
2nd of 30
10.1 yards per attempt · 70.8% completions · 0.363 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
12th of 32
CIN has allowed 7.8 yards per attempt across 4 games
≈ 246 yards
The life of this number: the DraftKings spread opened -1.5 on Sat, Oct 3, 90 days before kickoff and has not moved since.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 1.5 covered 99 of 194 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 104 of 194.
The total
Totals of 51.5 went over 31 of 60 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
Only one price recorded so far — nothing to plot until it moves.
The total
Over line.
Only one price recorded so far — nothing to plot until it moves.
Player props
The books haven't posted player props for this game yet — normal this far out. The archive is already watching for them: the moment a price appears it is captured, kept forever, and becomes loggable here.
When they land you'll get the same book you get on the game lines — closing-line value, a letter grade and a good-bet verdict on every prop you log. No projections: our prop model failed its own pre-registered calibration gate, and we don't ship numbers that failed.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
71.3%
10.1
Yards / att
7.5
243.0
Air yards / gm
280.5
0.363
EPA / dropback
0.114
+8.3
CPOE
completion % over expected
+4.6
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 25.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
200.5 yards in 3 of 4225.5 yards in 2 of 4250.5 yards in 1 of 4
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs BAL
Joe Burrow
CIN · 4 games, 157 attempts
65
index
B+
Volumeweight 0.40
5th of 30
39.3 attempts per game · team runs 60 plays at 65% pass · sacked on 5.4% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
11th of 30
7.5 yards per attempt · 71.3% completions · 0.114 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
22nd of 32
BAL has allowed 6.7 yards per attempt across 4 games
≈ 277 yards37 attempts × 7.5 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 26.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
250.5 yards in 3 of 4275.5 yards in 2 of 4300.5 yards in 1 of 4
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Zay Flowers21.6% target share · 22.4 PPR last 3
Rashod Bateman14.7% target share · 8.5 PPR last 4
Chris Moore5.9% target share · 5.1 PPR last 3
Tee Higgins25.2% target share · 17.8 PPR last 4
Ja'Marr Chase18.1% target share · 15.1 PPR last 4
Dohnte Meyers10.3% target share · 6.2 PPR last 4
Derrick Henry74.2% of team carries · 22.7 PPR last 4
Justice Hill11.7% of team carries · 3.8 PPR last 4
Chase Brown71.6% of team carries · 14.5 PPR last 4
Samaje Perine16.0% of team carries · 3.6 PPR last 4
Mark Andrews23.5% target share · 9.7 PPR last 4
Matthew Hibner4.9% target share · 6 PPR last 3
Mike Gesicki9.7% target share · 14.8 PPR last 3
Drew Sample3.2% target share · 3 PPR last 2