Carolina PanthersatPittsburgh Steelers

Sunday, Dec 27, 12:00 AM ET

Opened

—

Now

—

Unmoved

Total

—

Prices archived

0 spread · 0 total

Head to head

Bryce Young · CARQB Index componentsAaron Rodgers · PIT

84 · S

Index

48 · C

40.5

Attempts / gm

36.8

5.8%

Sacked

share of dropbacks

7.1%

62.3%

Completion

59.8%

7.8

Yards / att

6.7

364.8

Air yards / gm

315.0

0.240

EPA / dropback

-0.071

+6.1

CPOE

completion % over expected

-2.3

Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.

CAR skill corpswho they facePIT skill corps

144.0

Receivers

yds/gm allowed · vs PIT / vs CAR

154.0

statements like this held next week 54.6%· CI 50.7–58.5

Tetairoa McMillan26.5% target share · 18.6 PPR last 4
Jalen Coker15.0% target share · 17.4 PPR last 3
John Metchie III6.8% target share · 5.5 PPR last 3

QB Index · vs PIT

Bryce Young

CAR · 4 games, 162 attempts

index

Volumeweight 0.40

3rd of 34

40.5 attempts per game · team runs 65 plays at 63% pass · sacked on 5.8% of dropbacks

Efficiencyweight 0.35

6th of 34

7.8 yards per attempt · 62.3% completions · 0.240 EPA per dropback

Matchupweight 0.25

11th of 32

PIT has allowed 7.4 yards per attempt across 5 games

≈ 300 yards

The spread, hour by hour

Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.

No prices archived for this market yet.

The total

Over line.

No prices archived for this market yet.

Player props

The books haven't posted player props for this game yet — normal this far out. The archive is already watching for them: the moment a price appears it is captured, kept forever, and becomes loggable here.

When they land you'll get the same book you get on the game lines — closing-line value, a letter grade and a good-bet verdict on every prop you log. No projections: our prop model failed its own pre-registered calibration gate, and we don't ship numbers that failed.

Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.

21.1% target share · 10.1 PPR last 4

Roman Wilson14.3% target share · 9.8 PPR last 4

Germie Bernard11.4% target share · 6.8 PPR last 4

90.8

Backs

yds/gm allowed · vs PIT / vs CAR

120.0

statements like this held next week 54.6%· CI 50.7–58.5

Chuba Hubbard70.5% of team carries · 19.8 PPR last 4
AJ Dillon19.3% of team carries · 1.7 PPR last 4
Jonathon Brooks10.2% of team carries · 4.7 PPR last 2

RB statements like this held 48%· CI 38.5–57.7, no measured edge

Jaylen Warren73.7% of team carries · 20.7 PPR last 4
Rico Dowdle15.8% of team carries · 5.3 PPR last 2
Travis Homer5.3% of team carries · 0.5 PPR last 3

49.6

Tight ends

yds/gm allowed · vs PIT / vs CAR

53.3

statements like this held next week 54.6%· CI 50.7–58.5

Darren Waller12.9% target share · 10 PPR last 4
Tommy Tremble10.2% target share · 4.8 PPR last 4
Mitchell Evans4.8% target share · 3.1 PPR last 4

Pat Freiermuth14.9% target share · 11.2 PPR last 4
Darnell Washington9.1% target share · 6.6 PPR last 4

Where this ranking comes from

38 attempts × 7.8 yards per attempt

Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.

What he has actually cleared

300.5 yards in 2 of 4325.5 yards in 2 of 4350.5 yards in 1 of 4

The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.

QB Index · vs CAR

Aaron Rodgers

PIT · 5 games, 184 attempts

index

Volumeweight 0.40

10th of 34

36.8 attempts per game · team runs 59 plays at 63% pass · sacked on 7.1% of dropbacks

Efficiencyweight 0.35

24th of 34

6.7 yards per attempt · 59.8% completions · -0.071 EPA per dropback

Matchupweight 0.25

22nd of 32

CAR has allowed 6.7 yards per attempt across 4 games

≈ 232 yards35 attempts × 6.7 yards per attempt

Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.

What he has actually cleared

200.5 yards in 4 of 5225.5 yards in 3 of 5250.5 yards in 2 of 5