Cincinnati BengalsatIndianapolis Colts

Sunday, Dec 27, 12:00 AM ET

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0 spread · 0 total

Head to head

Joe Burrow · CINQB Index componentsDaniel Jones · IND

79 · A

Index

48 · C

37.8

Attempts / gm

35.2

4.5%

Sacked

share of dropbacks

4.9%

71.4%

Completion

61.4%

7.2

Yards / att

5.8

270.4

Air yards / gm

256.0

0.166

EPA / dropback

-0.130

+5.4

CPOE

completion % over expected

-2.3

Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.

CIN skill corpswho they faceIND skill corps

159.6

Receivers

yds/gm allowed · vs IND / vs CIN

123.0

statements like this held next week 54.6%· CI 50.7–58.5

Tee Higgins23.1% target share · 16.6 PPR last 4
Ja'Marr Chase20.4% target share · 19.2 PPR last 4
Dohnte Meyers9.7% target share · 6.1 PPR last 4

WR statements like this held 53.3%· CI 43.9–62.4, no measured edge

QB Index · vs IND

Joe Burrow

CIN · 5 games, 189 attempts

index

Volumeweight 0.40

7th of 34

37.8 attempts per game · team runs 61 plays at 62% pass · sacked on 4.5% of dropbacks

Efficiencyweight 0.35

12th of 34

7.2 yards per attempt · 71.4% completions · 0.166 EPA per dropback

Matchupweight 0.25

4th of 32

IND has allowed 8.0 yards per attempt across 5 games

≈ 260 yards

The spread, hour by hour

Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.

No prices archived for this market yet.

The total

Over line.

No prices archived for this market yet.

Player props

The books haven't posted player props for this game yet — normal this far out. The archive is already watching for them: the moment a price appears it is captured, kept forever, and becomes loggable here.

When they land you'll get the same book you get on the game lines — closing-line value, a letter grade and a good-bet verdict on every prop you log. No projections: our prop model failed its own pre-registered calibration gate, and we don't ship numbers that failed.

Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.

20.5% target share · 9.8 PPR last 4

Keenan Allen17.5% target share · 9.6 PPR last 4

Laquon Treadwell11.4% target share · 6.7 PPR last 4

99.6

Backs

yds/gm allowed · vs IND / vs CIN

82.4

statements like this held next week 54.6%· CI 50.7–58.5

Chase Brown64.5% of team carries · 11.6 PPR last 4
Samaje Perine24.5% of team carries · 5.5 PPR last 4

Jonathan Taylor74.8% of team carries · 18.1 PPR last 4
Seth McGowan12.6% of team carries · 2.3 PPR last 4

53.0

Tight ends

yds/gm allowed · vs IND / vs CIN

90.2

statements like this held next week 54.6%· CI 50.7–58.5

Mike Gesicki9.1% target share · 13 PPR last 4
Tanner Hudson3.8% target share · 4.1 PPR last 4
Drew Sample3.2% target share · 2.5 PPR last 3

TE statements like this held 55.9%· CI 46.2–65.1, no measured edge

Tyler Warren21.7% target share · 14.9 PPR last 4

Where this ranking comes from

36 attempts × 7.2 yards per attempt

Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.

What he has actually cleared

225.5 yards in 3 of 5250.5 yards in 3 of 5275.5 yards in 2 of 5

The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.

QB Index · vs CIN

Daniel Jones

IND · 5 games, 176 attempts

index

Volumeweight 0.40

11th of 34

35.2 attempts per game · team runs 63 plays at 56% pass · sacked on 4.9% of dropbacks

Efficiencyweight 0.35

29th of 34

5.8 yards per attempt · 61.4% completions · -0.130 EPA per dropback

Matchupweight 0.25

13th of 32

CIN has allowed 7.3 yards per attempt across 5 games

≈ 194 yards33 attempts × 5.8 yards per attempt

Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.

What he has actually cleared

175.5 yards in 3 of 5200.5 yards in 3 of 5225.5 yards in 2 of 5