Tampa Bay BuccaneersatAtlanta Falcons

Sunday, Dec 27, 12:00 AM ET

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0 spread · 0 total

Head to head

Baker Mayfield · TBQB Index componentsMichael Penix Jr. · ATL

36 · D

Index

49 · C

32.0

Attempts / gm

25.7

11.9%

Sacked

share of dropbacks

4.9%

63.5%

Completion

67.5%

6.4

Yards / att

9.3

284.0

Air yards / gm

163.3

-0.274

EPA / dropback

0.343

+1.1

CPOE

completion % over expected

+1.8

Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.

TB skill corpswho they faceATL skill corps

181.0

Receivers

yds/gm allowed · vs ATL / vs TB

138.8

WR statements like this held next week 60%· CI 50.4–68.9

Emeka Egbuka22.6% target share · 10.5 PPR last 4
Chris Godwin Jr.14.4% target share · 7.6 PPR last 4
Ted Hurst III11.0% target share · 6.7 PPR last 4

statements like this held next week 54.6%· CI 50.7–58.5

QB Index · vs ATL

Baker Mayfield

TB · 3 games, 96 attempts

index

Volumeweight 0.40

15th of 34

32.0 attempts per game · team runs 57 plays at 53% pass · sacked on 11.9% of dropbacks

Efficiencyweight 0.35

26th of 34

6.4 yards per attempt · 63.5% completions · -0.274 EPA per dropback

Matchupweight 0.25

27th of 32

ATL has allowed 6.3 yards per attempt across 5 games

≈ 170 yards

The spread, hour by hour

Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.

No prices archived for this market yet.

The total

Over line.

No prices archived for this market yet.

Player props

The books haven't posted player props for this game yet — normal this far out. The archive is already watching for them: the moment a price appears it is captured, kept forever, and becomes loggable here.

When they land you'll get the same book you get on the game lines — closing-line value, a letter grade and a good-bet verdict on every prop you log. No projections: our prop model failed its own pre-registered calibration gate, and we don't ship numbers that failed.

Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.

28.1% target share · 17.7 PPR last 4

Jahan Dotson13.3% target share · 6.5 PPR last 4

Zachariah Branch6.3% target share · 2.9 PPR last 4

74.2

Backs

yds/gm allowed · vs ATL / vs TB

60.0

RB statements like this held 51.9%· CI 42.4–61.3, no measured edge

Bucky Irving57.9% of team carries · 14.6 PPR last 4
Kenny Gainwell12.8% of team carries · 6 PPR last 4
Sean Tucker6.0% of team carries · 4.4 PPR last 2

Bijan Robinson65.8% of team carries · 22.5 PPR last 4
Brian Robinson32.9% of team carries · 11.8 PPR last 4

53.8

Tight ends

yds/gm allowed · vs ATL / vs TB

60.2

statements like this held next week 54.6%· CI 50.7–58.5

Cade Otton18.5% target share · 7.6 PPR last 4

TE statements like this held 55.9%· CI 46.2–65.1, no measured edge

Kyle Pitts11.7% target share · 6.7 PPR last 4
Austin Hooper5.5% target share · 5 PPR last 3

Where this ranking comes from

27 attempts × 6.4 yards per attempt

Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.

What he has actually cleared

200.5 yards in 2 of 3225.5 yards in 0 of 3250.5 yards in 0 of 3

The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.

QB Index · vs TB

Michael Penix Jr.

ATL · 3 games, 77 attempts

index

Volumeweight 0.40

28th of 34

25.7 attempts per game · team runs 60 plays at 45% pass · sacked on 4.9% of dropbacks

Efficiencyweight 0.35

7th of 34

9.3 yards per attempt · 67.5% completions · 0.343 EPA per dropback

Matchupweight 0.25

16th of 32

TB has allowed 7.1 yards per attempt across 5 games

≈ 238 yards25 attempts × 9.3 yards per attempt

Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.

What he has actually cleared

225.5 yards in 2 of 3250.5 yards in 1 of 3275.5 yards in 0 of 3