Only DraftKings quotes this game so far, so there is no second number to compare it against. Books further out post one at a time; this fills in as kickoff gets closer.
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
JAX
42.7%
DAL
57.3%
Teams the market priced at 55–60% won 493 of 879 games since 1999.Slightly worse than the price claimed, by 1.4 points.
4.5%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 104.5%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Trevor Lawrence · JAXQB Index componentsDak Prescott · DAL
67 · B+
Index
78 · A
28.6
Attempts / gm
38.4
6.5%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
3.0%
67.1%
Completion
QB Index · vs DAL
Trevor Lawrence
JAX · 5 games, 143 attempts
67
index
B+
Volumeweight 0.40
24th of 34
28.6 attempts per game · team runs 57 plays at 51% pass · sacked on 6.5% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
4th of 34
8.2 yards per attempt · 67.1% completions · 0.274 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
3rd of 32
DAL has allowed 8.4 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 219 yards
The life of this number: the DraftKings spread opened -2.5 on Tue, Sep 29, 90 days before kickoff and has not moved since.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 2.5 covered 244 of 504 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 269 of 504.
The total
Totals of 51.5 went over 31 of 60 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
Only one price recorded so far — nothing to plot until it moves.
The total
Over line.
Only one price recorded so far — nothing to plot until it moves.
Player props
The books haven't posted player props for this game yet — normal this far out. The archive is already watching for them: the moment a price appears it is captured, kept forever, and becomes loggable here.
When they land you'll get the same book you get on the game lines — closing-line value, a letter grade and a good-bet verdict on every prop you log. No projections: our prop model failed its own pre-registered calibration gate, and we don't ship numbers that failed.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
67.2%
8.2
Yards / att
7.2
224.8
Air yards / gm
288.2
0.274
EPA / dropback
0.229
+7.7
CPOE
completion % over expected
+3.0
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 24.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
200.5 yards in 3 of 5225.5 yards in 3 of 5250.5 yards in 1 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs JAX
Dak Prescott
DAL · 5 games, 192 attempts
78
index
A
Volumeweight 0.40
5th of 34
38.4 attempts per game · team runs 60 plays at 64% pass · sacked on 3.0% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
12th of 34
7.2 yards per attempt · 67.2% completions · 0.229 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
8th of 32
JAX has allowed 7.7 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 268 yards37 attempts × 7.2 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 27.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
250.5 yards in 4 of 5275.5 yards in 4 of 5300.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Parker Washington25.4% target share · 15.6 PPR last 4
Jakobi Meyers13.0% target share · 8.8 PPR last 4
Brian Thomas Jr.13.0% target share · 4.6 PPR last 4
CeeDee Lamb27.7% target share · 24.9 PPR last 4
George Pickens21.8% target share · 15.7 PPR last 4
Ryan Flournoy14.9% target share · 7.8 PPR last 4
Bhayshul Tuten61.2% of team carries · 13.5 PPR last 4
Chris Rodriguez Jr.20.9% of team carries · 5.7 PPR last 4
Ameer Abdullah7.5% of team carries · 0.6 PPR last 4
Javonte Williams71.2% of team carries · 17.9 PPR last 4
Brenton Strange18.8% target share · 10.1 PPR last 4
Nate Boerkircher4.3% target share · 2.1 PPR last 4
Jake Ferguson11.2% target share · 9.7 PPR last 4
Brevyn Spann-Ford3.2% target share · 0.7 PPR last 4
