San Francisco 49ersatKansas City Chiefs

Sunday, Dec 27, 4:25 PM ET

Opened

—

Now

—

Unmoved

Total

—

Prices archived

0 spread · 0 total

Head to head

Brock Purdy · SFQB Index componentsPatrick Mahomes · KC

46 · C

Index

47 · C

28.4

Attempts / gm

32.0

2.1%

Sacked

share of dropbacks

4.5%

69.0%

Completion

64.1%

8.4

Yards / att

8.1

220.6

Air yards / gm

222.8

0.397

EPA / dropback

0.192

+6.0

CPOE

completion % over expected

+0.8

Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.

SF skill corpswho they faceKC skill corps

108.5

Receivers

yds/gm allowed · vs KC / vs SF

126.8

WR statements like this held 53.3%· CI 43.9–62.4, no measured edge

Mike Evans25.4% target share · 14.9 PPR last 4
Deebo Samuel Sr.14.5% target share · 10.6 PPR last 4
Demarcus Robinson4.3% target share · 9.7 PPR last 2

QB Index · vs KC

Brock Purdy

SF · 5 games, 142 attempts

index

Volumeweight 0.40

25th of 34

28.4 attempts per game · team runs 56 plays at 51% pass · sacked on 2.1% of dropbacks

Efficiencyweight 0.35

4th of 34

8.4 yards per attempt · 69.0% completions · 0.397 EPA per dropback

Matchupweight 0.25

28th of 32

KC has allowed 6.2 yards per attempt across 4 games

≈ 234 yards

The spread, hour by hour

Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.

No prices archived for this market yet.

The total

Over line.

No prices archived for this market yet.

Player props

The books haven't posted player props for this game yet — normal this far out. The archive is already watching for them: the moment a price appears it is captured, kept forever, and becomes loggable here.

When they land you'll get the same book you get on the game lines — closing-line value, a letter grade and a good-bet verdict on every prop you log. No projections: our prop model failed its own pre-registered calibration gate, and we don't ship numbers that failed.

Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.

18.5% target share · 8.3 PPR last 4

Rashee Rice14.3% target share · 12.7 PPR last 3

Tyquan Thornton12.6% target share · 11.2 PPR last 4

69.0

Backs

yds/gm allowed · vs KC / vs SF

87.4

RB statements like this held 51.9%· CI 42.4–61.3, no measured edge

Christian McCaffrey47.7% of team carries · 19.4 PPR last 4
Kaelon Black28.9% of team carries · 1.8 PPR last 4

statements like this held next week 54.6%· CI 50.7–58.5

Kenneth Walker III78.4% of team carries · 27.5 PPR last 4
Emmett Johnson14.4% of team carries · 4.5 PPR last 4

82.3

Tight ends

yds/gm allowed · vs KC / vs SF

35.6

TE statements like this held 55.9%· CI 46.2–65.1, no measured edge

George Kittle20.3% target share · 17.2 PPR last 4

TE statements like this held 58.5%· CI 49–67.4, no measured edge

Travis Kelce18.5% target share · 13.2 PPR last 4
Noah Gray6.7% target share · 3 PPR last 4

Where this ranking comes from

28 attempts × 8.4 yards per attempt

Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.

What he has actually cleared

200.5 yards in 4 of 5225.5 yards in 2 of 5250.5 yards in 2 of 5

The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.

QB Index · vs SF

Patrick Mahomes

KC · 4 games, 128 attempts

index

Volumeweight 0.40

15th of 34

32.0 attempts per game · team runs 62 plays at 52% pass · sacked on 4.5% of dropbacks

Efficiencyweight 0.35

13th of 34

8.1 yards per attempt · 64.1% completions · 0.192 EPA per dropback

Matchupweight 0.25

30th of 32

SF has allowed 6.1 yards per attempt across 5 games

≈ 248 yards31 attempts × 8.1 yards per attempt

Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.

What he has actually cleared

225.5 yards in 2 of 4250.5 yards in 1 of 4275.5 yards in 1 of 4