Only DraftKings quotes this game so far, so there is no second number to compare it against. Books further out post one at a time; this fills in as kickoff gets closer.
What the market says
Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
NE
70.7%
NYJ
29.3%
Teams the market priced at 70–75% won 527 of 722 games since 1999.That is almost exactly what the price claimed — this market prices accurately.
4.9%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 104.9%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Drake Maye · NEQB Index componentsGeno Smith · NYJ
49 · C
Index
45 · C
30.2
Attempts / gm
29.4
6.8%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
9.8%
65.6%
Completion
QB Index · vs NYJ
Drake Maye
NE · 5 games, 151 attempts
49
index
C
Volumeweight 0.40
19th of 34
30.2 attempts per game · team runs 62 plays at 51% pass · sacked on 6.8% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
8th of 34
8.1 yards per attempt · 65.6% completions · 0.126 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
29th of 32
NYJ has allowed 6.1 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 238 yards
The life of this number: the DraftKings spread opened +6.5 on Tue, Sep 29, 89 days before kickoff and has not moved since.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 6.5 covered 151 of 325 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 234 of 325.
The total
Totals of 41.5 went over 126 of 264 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
Only one price recorded so far — nothing to plot until it moves.
The total
Over line.
Only one price recorded so far — nothing to plot until it moves.
Player props
The books haven't posted player props for this game yet — normal this far out. The archive is already watching for them: the moment a price appears it is captured, kept forever, and becomes loggable here.
When they land you'll get the same book you get on the game lines — closing-line value, a letter grade and a good-bet verdict on every prop you log. No projections: our prop model failed its own pre-registered calibration gate, and we don't ship numbers that failed.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
69.4%
8.1
Yards / att
7.4
277.2
Air yards / gm
200.0
0.126
EPA / dropback
0.054
+6.2
CPOE
completion % over expected
+2.6
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 24.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
175.5 yards in 5 of 5200.5 yards in 3 of 5225.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs NE
Geno Smith
NYJ · 5 games, 147 attempts
45
index
C
Volumeweight 0.40
22nd of 34
29.4 attempts per game · team runs 56 plays at 53% pass · sacked on 9.8% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
14th of 34
7.4 yards per attempt · 69.4% completions · 0.054 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
20th of 32
NE has allowed 6.9 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 196 yards27 attempts × 7.4 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 17.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
200.5 yards in 3 of 5225.5 yards in 2 of 5250.5 yards in 1 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Romeo Doubs15.3% target share · 11.7 PPR last 4
DeMario Douglas14.7% target share · 8.2 PPR last 4
Mack Hollins13.3% target share · 9 PPR last 4
Garrett Wilson30.5% target share · 18.1 PPR last 4
Adonai Mitchell10.6% target share · 10.7 PPR last 2
Isaiah Williams9.9% target share · 8 PPR last 4
Rhamondre Stevenson39.9% of team carries · 11.6 PPR last 4
TreVeyon Henderson29.4% of team carries · 6.6 PPR last 4
Corey Kiner14.0% of team carries · 2.2 PPR last 4
Braelon Allen46.0% of team carries · 10.1 PPR last 4
Hunter Henry12.7% target share · 8.3 PPR last 4
Eli Raridon6.0% target share · 6 PPR last 4
Kenyon Sadiq14.9% target share · 6.9 PPR last 4
Jeremy Ruckert5.7% target share · 6.3 PPR last 3
