Arizona CardinalsatNew Orleans Saints

Sunday, Dec 27, 1:00 PM ET

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Prices archived

0 spread · 0 total

Head to head

Jacoby Brissett · ARIQB Index componentsTyler Shough · NO

64 · B+

Index

77 · A

39.8

Attempts / gm

41.0

5.7%

Sacked

share of dropbacks

6.0%

66.3%

Completion

66.8%

5.6

Yards / att

6.3

284.2

Air yards / gm

326.2

-0.020

EPA / dropback

-0.023

+1.1

CPOE

completion % over expected

+1.8

Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.

ARI skill corpswho they faceNO skill corps

129.6

Receivers

yds/gm allowed · vs NO / vs ARI

156.6

WR statements like this held 53.3%· CI 43.9–62.4, no measured edge

Michael Wilson26.3% target share · 13.4 PPR last 4
Kendrick Bourne11.3% target share · 8.7 PPR last 4
Jalen Brooks4.1% target share · 0.9 PPR last 4

statements like this held next week 54.6%· CI 50.7–58.5

QB Index · vs NO

Jacoby Brissett

ARI · 5 games, 199 attempts

index

B+

Volumeweight 0.40

4th of 34

39.8 attempts per game · team runs 64 plays at 62% pass · sacked on 5.7% of dropbacks

Efficiencyweight 0.35

25th of 34

5.6 yards per attempt · 66.3% completions · -0.020 EPA per dropback

Matchupweight 0.25

10th of 32

NO has allowed 7.5 yards per attempt across 5 games

≈ 210 yards

The spread, hour by hour

Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.

No prices archived for this market yet.

The total

Over line.

No prices archived for this market yet.

Player props

The books haven't posted player props for this game yet — normal this far out. The archive is already watching for them: the moment a price appears it is captured, kept forever, and becomes loggable here.

When they land you'll get the same book you get on the game lines — closing-line value, a letter grade and a good-bet verdict on every prop you log. No projections: our prop model failed its own pre-registered calibration gate, and we don't ship numbers that failed.

Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.

27.6% target share · 17.6 PPR last 4

Devaughn Vele18.9% target share · 10.6 PPR last 4

Bryce Lance8.7% target share · 0.9 PPR last 4

133.4

Backs

yds/gm allowed · vs NO / vs ARI

110.4

RB statements like this held 48%· CI 38.5–57.7, no measured edge

Jeremiyah Love57.8% of team carries · 9.5 PPR last 4
Tyler Allgeier30.2% of team carries · 6.3 PPR last 4

Travis Etienne27.2% of team carries · 10.3 PPR last 3
Kendre Miller25.4% of team carries · 6 PPR last 4
Alvin Kamara24.6% of team carries · 9.4 PPR last 4

71.2

Tight ends

yds/gm allowed · vs NO / vs ARI

72.6

TE statements like this held 55.9%· CI 46.2–65.1, no measured edge

Trey McBride28.9% target share · 16.6 PPR last 4
Elijah Higgins4.1% target share · 5.9 PPR last 4

Juwan Johnson16.3% target share · 12.8 PPR last 4
Noah Fant6.6% target share · 8.6 PPR last 4

Where this ranking comes from

38 attempts × 5.6 yards per attempt

Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.

What he has actually cleared

250.5 yards in 3 of 5275.5 yards in 3 of 5300.5 yards in 0 of 5

The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.

QB Index · vs ARI

Tyler Shough

NO · 5 games, 205 attempts

index

Volumeweight 0.40

2nd of 34

41.0 attempts per game · team runs 64 plays at 64% pass · sacked on 6.0% of dropbacks

Efficiencyweight 0.35

22nd of 34

6.3 yards per attempt · 66.8% completions · -0.023 EPA per dropback

Matchupweight 0.25

1st of 32

ARI has allowed 9.1 yards per attempt across 5 games

≈ 244 yards39 attempts × 6.3 yards per attempt

Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.

What he has actually cleared

225.5 yards in 4 of 5250.5 yards in 4 of 5275.5 yards in 2 of 5