Cleveland BrownsatBaltimore Ravens

Sunday, Dec 27, 1:00 PM ET

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Prices archived

0 spread · 0 total

Head to head

Deshaun Watson · CLEQB Index componentsLamar Jackson · BAL

41 · D

Index

47 · C

29.6

Attempts / gm

24.0

11.4%

Sacked

share of dropbacks

6.8%

64.2%

Completion

70.8%

6.8

Yards / att

10.1

211.8

Air yards / gm

243.0

0.024

EPA / dropback

0.363

-1.7

CPOE

completion % over expected

+8.3

Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.

CLE skill corpswho they faceBAL skill corps

184.2

Receivers

yds/gm allowed · vs BAL / vs CLE

166.8

WR statements like this held next week 60%· CI 50.4–68.9

Denzel Boston20.3% target share · 13.8 PPR last 4
KC Concepcion19.6% target share · 6 PPR last 4
Jerry Jeudy10.1% target share · 4 PPR last 4

statements like this held next week 54.6%· CI 50.7–58.5

QB Index · vs BAL

Deshaun Watson

CLE · 5 games, 148 attempts

index

Volumeweight 0.40

21st of 34

29.6 attempts per game · team runs 55 plays at 54% pass · sacked on 11.4% of dropbacks

Efficiencyweight 0.35

20th of 34

6.8 yards per attempt · 64.2% completions · 0.024 EPA per dropback

Matchupweight 0.25

19th of 32

BAL has allowed 7.0 yards per attempt across 5 games

≈ 180 yards

The spread, hour by hour

Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.

No prices archived for this market yet.

The total

Over line.

No prices archived for this market yet.

Player props

The books haven't posted player props for this game yet — normal this far out. The archive is already watching for them: the moment a price appears it is captured, kept forever, and becomes loggable here.

When they land you'll get the same book you get on the game lines — closing-line value, a letter grade and a good-bet verdict on every prop you log. No projections: our prop model failed its own pre-registered calibration gate, and we don't ship numbers that failed.

Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.

23.1% target share · 20.4 PPR last 4

Rashod Bateman15.7% target share · 11.3 PPR last 4

Devontez Walker5.2% target share · 4.4 PPR last 4

84.2

Backs

yds/gm allowed · vs BAL / vs CLE

106.8

statements like this held next week 54.6%· CI 50.7–58.5

Quinshon Judkins62.4% of team carries · 12.3 PPR last 4
Raheim Sanders7.7% of team carries · 4.3 PPR last 4

RB statements like this held 48%· CI 38.5–57.7, no measured edge

Derrick Henry72.6% of team carries · 19.1 PPR last 4
Justice Hill11.5% of team carries · 5.3 PPR last 4

40.0

Tight ends

yds/gm allowed · vs BAL / vs CLE

53.8

TE statements like this held 58.5%· CI 49–67.4, no measured edge

Harold Fannin Jr.18.2% target share · 11.9 PPR last 4

statements like this held next week 54.6%· CI 50.7–58.5

Mark Andrews23.1% target share · 8.7 PPR last 4
Matthew Hibner3.7% target share · 6 PPR last 3

Where this ranking comes from

26 attempts × 6.8 yards per attempt

Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.

What he has actually cleared

175.5 yards in 3 of 5200.5 yards in 3 of 5225.5 yards in 2 of 5

The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.

QB Index · vs CLE

Lamar Jackson

BAL · 4 games, 96 attempts

index

Volumeweight 0.40

31st of 34

24.0 attempts per game · team runs 60 plays at 46% pass · sacked on 6.8% of dropbacks

Efficiencyweight 0.35

1st of 34

10.1 yards per attempt · 70.8% completions · 0.363 EPA per dropback

Matchupweight 0.25

21st of 32

CLE has allowed 6.9 yards per attempt across 5 games

≈ 257 yards26 attempts × 10.1 yards per attempt

Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.

What he has actually cleared

200.5 yards in 3 of 4225.5 yards in 2 of 4250.5 yards in 1 of 4