Both prices with the bookmaker's margin removed. This is the market's number, not ours — we don't forecast NFL games, and we publish why.
LAR
52.0%
SEA
48.0%
Teams the market priced at 50–55% won 341 of 644 games since 1999.That is almost exactly what the price claimed — this market prices accurately.
4.1%the book's margin on this game
The two prices add up to 104.1%. Everything over 100% is the book's edge, taken whichever side you pick.
Head to head
Matthew Stafford · LAQB Index componentsSam Darnold · SEA
58 · B
Index
27 · F
43.2
Attempts / gm
29.8
3.1%
Sacked
share of dropbacks
8.6%
64.4%
Completion
QB Index · vs SEA
Matthew Stafford
LA · 5 games, 216 attempts
58
index
B
Volumeweight 0.40
1st of 34
43.2 attempts per game · team runs 69 plays at 63% pass · sacked on 3.1% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
17th of 34
7.3 yards per attempt · 64.4% completions · 0.143 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
32nd of 32
SEA has allowed 5.3 yards per attempt across 6 games
≈ 309 yards
The life of this number: the DraftKings spread opened +1.5 on Sun, Sep 27, 90 days before kickoff and has not moved since.
What happened at this number
Counts from 6,967 regular-season games since 1999. No model, no forecast — this is the history of the number itself, not a claim about this game.
The spread
Favourites of 1.5 covered 99 of 194 games.
The range covers a coin flip.
They won outright in 104 of 194.
The total
Totals of 45.5 went over 119 of 235 times.
The range covers a coin flip.
How often a game ends on each margin
3
1,046 of 6,967
7
634 of 6,967
6
415 of 6,967
The spread, hour by hour
Home handicap. Dashed rules are the key numbers.
DraftKingsFanDuel
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The total
Over line.
DraftKingsFanDuel
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Player props
The books haven't posted player props for this game yet — normal this far out. The archive is already watching for them: the moment a price appears it is captured, kept forever, and becomes loggable here.
When they land you'll get the same book you get on the game lines — closing-line value, a letter grade and a good-bet verdict on every prop you log. No projections: our prop model failed its own pre-registered calibration gate, and we don't ship numbers that failed.
Every point above is a price we observed and stored, with the time we saw it. Nothing on this page is a prediction, a rating, or a recommended bet.
60.4%
7.3
Yards / att
6.9
374.2
Air yards / gm
215.4
0.143
EPA / dropback
-0.135
+0.3
CPOE
completion % over expected
-4.6
Every row is a rate measured over games already played, never a probability — the same components behind each quarterback's Index below. Our passing model failed its calibration test; we publish that on the accuracy page.
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 23.5 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
300.5 yards in 4 of 5325.5 yards in 3 of 5350.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
QB Index · vs LA
Sam Darnold
SEA · 5 games, 149 attempts
27
index
F
Volumeweight 0.40
20th of 34
29.8 attempts per game · team runs 61 plays at 55% pass · sacked on 8.6% of dropbacks
Efficiencyweight 0.35
26th of 34
6.9 yards per attempt · 60.4% completions · -0.135 EPA per dropback
Matchupweight 0.25
31st of 32
LA has allowed 5.7 yards per attempt across 5 games
≈ 209 yards30 attempts × 6.9 yards per attempt
Expected volume from the inputs above. Unvalidated — it is arithmetic on what has already happened, not a forecast that has been scored against outcomes.
The market has his team at 22.0 points implied.
What he has actually cleared
175.5 yards in 3 of 5200.5 yards in 2 of 5225.5 yards in 2 of 5
The index ranks this quarterback and this matchup against every qualifying passer, over games already played. It is not a probability and not a bet — our passing-yards model failed its calibration test, and we publish that on the accuracy page.
10
390 of 6,967
4
341 of 6,967
14
334 of 6,967
Across 6,967 regular-season games since 1999, 24 of 28 spread rungs with a usable sample had a 95% interval containing 50%. In other words the number itself has never been an edge, at any rung, in twenty-seven seasons. What it is good for is knowing which numbers are expensive to cross — and a rung holding fewer than 30 games is shown greyed rather than dropped.
Davante Adams21.4% target share · 22.4 PPR last 4
Puka Nacua21.4% target share · 25.9 PPR last 3
Konata Mumpfield6.7% target share · 5.8 PPR last 4
Jaxon Smith-Njigba34.9% target share · 24 PPR last 4
Rashid Shaheed14.8% target share · 8 PPR last 4
Cooper Kupp13.2% target share · 7.6 PPR last 4
Kyren Williams57.4% of team carries · 23.5 PPR last 4
Blake Corum31.1% of team carries · 8.3 PPR last 4
Ronnie Rivers4.1% of team carries · 3.4 PPR last 1
Emanuel Wilson54.0% of team carries · 11.7 PPR last 4
Tyler Higbee11.9% target share · 11.6 PPR last 4
Terrance Ferguson5.7% target share · 6.4 PPR last 3
Davis Allen4.3% target share · 2.5 PPR last 4
AJ Barner12.7% target share · 5.9 PPR last 4
